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TRENDS SHAPING EDUCATION 2016
2
Trends Shaping Education
• Intention and purpose
– Inform strategic thinking
– Stimulate reflection about the future of education
─ NOT a statistical compendium nor a prescription for policy
3
Trends Shaping Education 2016
• Five thematic chapters– Globalisation– The future of the nation state– Are cities the new countries?– Family matters– A brave new world
• To be included, data needs to be:– Robust– Internationally comparable– Long term trend
Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (World Bank data)
19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20120
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Low income Middle income World OECD members
Gap between richer and poorer regions widensGDP per capita by national income level and OECD member countries, and world, 1960-2013
Globalisation
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
4% 4% 4% 4%5%
5%
6%
7%
8%
8%
9%
Middle income Low income World OECD members
Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (World Bank data)
Increasing immigration across the OECDImmigrants as a share of national population, 1960-2010
Globalisation
Migration
Global integratio
n
Trade patterns
Environment
Harmonisation of values
Affluence and
inequality
Democracy and dual
nationalities
GLOBALISATION
Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data)
19701971
19721973
19741975
19761977
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
201255
60
65
70
75
80
85
90 Men effective retirement age Women effective retirement agePension men Pension womenLife expectancy from 65 males Life expectancy from 65 females
Year
s Old
Longer life, longer retirementLongevity, effective retirement age, and legal age at which one can become a pensioner, OECD country average, 1970-2012
Nation state
8
Nation state
Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data)
Changing causes of deathThe top causes of death (left axis) and the fastest growing causes of death (right axis) in OECD countries, 1960-2012
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Circulatory Cancer RespiratoryExternal Diabetes DementiaAlzheimer's
Top
4 pe
r 10
0,00
0
Top
new
per
100
,000
Right axis :
Left axis:
9
Taxes
Dementia
National Identities
Counter terroris
m
The knowledg
e economy
Greater role of women
National Security
Entrepreneurs
Government Spending
Health
Pension System
Ageing
Patents
Obesity
Labour Market
THE NATIO
N STATE
10
Cities
Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data)
Productivity: from the City of Love to the Big ApplePercent of national GDP growth contributed by the metropolitan areas 2000-10.
Slovak Republic (1)Netherlands (5)
Spain (8)Poland (8)Finland (1)
Slovenia (1)Portugal (2)
Czech Republic (3)Sweden (3)
OECD23 (221)Austria (3)Canada (9)
United States (70)Belgium (4)Ireland (1)
Chile (3)Denmark (1)Mexico (33)
Estonia (1)Korea (10)
Hungary (1)France (15)Japan (36)Greece (2)
0 15 30 45 60 75 90
Largest contributor All metropolitan areasCountry ( No. of cities)
11
Cities
Sources: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (Meddin, R (2015), The Bike-sharing World Map and Metrobits (2015), World Metro Database.)
The urban commuteAll metro and bike share systems in OECD and BRIICS countries
18631896
19001902
19051912
19241927
19351954
19571964
19671969
19711974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20130
20
40
60
80
100
120
MetroOECD BRICS
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
200
400
600
Bike Share
Costs
House prices
Benefits
Congestion
Contagion
Pollution
Crime
Citizen Engagement
Productivity
Wages
Culture
Innovation
Are cities the new countries?
Families
Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (Eurostat data)
Marriage age is risingMean age at first marriage for men and women, 1990, 2000, and 2013.
13
Turk
ey
Polan
d
Slova
kia
Portu
gal
Czech
Rep
ublic
Eston
ia
Belgium
Hunga
ry
Slove
nia
Switz
erlan
d
OECD(24)
Luxe
mbour
g
Finlan
d
Greec
e
Fran
ce
Nether
lands
German
y
Austr
ia
Irelan
dIta
ly
Norway
Denmar
kSp
ain
Icelan
d
Swed
en20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36 1990 2000 2013 1990 2000 2013
Age
Women Men
14
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Num
ber o
f cou
ntrie
s
Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (Pew Research data)
FamiliesMarriage for allNumber of OECD countries in which same-sex marriage is legal, 2000-2015
15
Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD Household debt indicator.)
FamiliesHousehold debt increasingTotal household debt as a percent of net disposable income, 2000 and 2012
Mexico
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Polan
d
Slove
nia
Hunga
ry
Czech
Rep
ublic
Austr
iaIta
ly
German
y
Belgium
Fran
ce
United
State
s
Finlan
dJap
anSp
ain
United
King
dom
Portu
gal
Canad
a
Swed
en
Austr
alia
Switz
erlan
d
Irelan
d
Nether
lands
Denmar
k0
100
200
300
2000 2012
% o
f ne
t di
spos
able
inco
me
16
Government Policy
Changing family values
Ageing
Child Well-being
Marriage and
divorce
HealthHousehold
budgets
Family Matters
17
Technology
Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data)
Internet is an integral part of our livesAverage number of Internet users, daily users and mobile users, 2006 and 2013.
Icelan
d
Swed
en
Nether
lands
Finlan
d
United
King
dom
Korea
Austr
alia
German
y
Fran
ce
Eston
ia
Irelan
d
United
State
sIsr
ael
Hunga
ryChil
e
Portu
gal
Italy
Mexico
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2006 Of which daily users (2013) Mobile users (2013)
% o
f po
pula
tion
18
Technology
Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data)
Online multi-tasking: more efficient or more distracted?Average number of activities being performed online at the same time per Internet user, 2009 and 2013.
Norway
Icelan
d
Swed
en
Netherl
ands
Finlan
d
Luxembourg
France
Slove
nia
Austria
Estonia
Czech Rep
ublic
Belgium
Irelan
d
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Hungary
Spain
Portuga
l
Greece Ita
ly
Poland
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2009 2013
Num
ber o
f acti
vitie
s
19
New technologie
s Social networksDigital
divide
Information as power
Entrepreneurs
Cyberbullying
Cyber securit
y
Biotechnology
Privacy
R&DA
BRAVE NEW
WORLD
20
Thank you!
Ageing PopulationsGlobal Economic Integration
International inequality
Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage
Changing balance of global power
More satisfied with life?
Lower voter turnout
Skills mismatch
Women in the labour market and childbirth
More diverse families, generally smaller and with
older parents
Almost ubiquitous access and use of computing and the Internet
A digital societyKnowledge-intensive Economies
Migration and mobility
Urban lifeObesity epidemic
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