Vulnerability and Impact Assessment climate change

Vulnerability and ImpactAssessment – Climate

Change

Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar ReddyChief Executive Officer [CEO],

GEOECOLOGY ENERGY ORGANISATION [GEO]

http://e-geo.org

Climate Change & the Challenge of Poverty

Alleviation  26 - 28 July, 2012

Centre for Climate Change and Environment

Advisory DR. MCR HRD Institute Campus,

Hyderabad

26

Ju

ly 2

012

Present carbon cycle

SPEED OF EXCHANGE PROCESS

Very fast (less than 1 year)

Fast (1 to 10 years)

Slow (10 to 100 years)

Very slow (more than 100 years)

Storage and flux of carbon

(in billions of tones)

Human activity influence

Variation of the temperature on Earth

Temperature trends (1976 to 2000)

Precipitation trends (1900 to 2000)

Source : IPCC/SRESA2

5 degrees = What separates us from the last glacial era (-15 000 BC)

Models’ forecasts : +1,4 to +5,8 degrees by 2100.

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATIONS

Visual impact of Climate Change

Impact of Climate Change on society

Climate change will cause heavier tropical cyclones.

…Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma…

Cost of extreme weather events

Less visual but with major impact

> Temperature increase> Sea level rise> More rain

Agriculture and food securityCrop yields, irrigation demands...

ForestComposition, health and productivity...

Water resourcesWater supply, water quality...

Coastal areas Erosion, inundation, cost of prevention...Species and natural areasBiodiversity, modification of ecosystems...Human healthInfectious diseases, human settlements...

Consequences of climate change:

VulnerabilityVulnerability to climate change is the risk of

adverse things happening Vulnerability is a function of three factors:

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Exposure

Exposure is what is at risk from climate change, e.g.,

Population Resources Property

It is also the climate change that an affected system will face, e.g.,

Sea level Temperature Precipitation Extreme events

Sensitivity

Biophysical effect of climate change Change in crop yield,

runoff, energy demand It considers the

socioeconomic context, e.g., the agriculture system

Grain crops typically are sensitive

Manufacturing typically is much less sensitive

Adaptive Capacity

Capability to adapt Function of:

Wealth Technology Education Institutions Information Infrastructure “Social capital”

Having adaptive capacity does not mean it is used effectively

More exposure and sensitivity increase vulnerability

More adaptive capacity decreases vulnerability

An assessment of vulnerability should consider all three factors

Vulnerability is a Function of …

Adaptation“adjustment in natural or human

systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm of exploits beneficial opportunities”

(Third Assessment Report, Working Group II)

Includes “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate

Adaptation (continued)

Two types of adaptation

Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent

Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change

SL framework: Determinants of adaptive capacity

Livelihood resources

Examples

Human Knowledge, Skills

Social Women’s savings and loans groups, farmer- CBOs

Physical Irrigation infrastructure, seed and grain storage facilities

Natural Reliable water source, productive land

Financial Micro-insurance, diversified income sources

Policies, institutions and power structures

Capitals

PROSOPIS JULIFLORA - CAUSE AND USE

Climate change / variability

Groundwater use

Contribution of salts-Use of complex fertilizers-Surfacing of natural salts from deep inside the ground through groundwater

Decrease in rainfallHigh temperatures

Increase in intensity of cultivation

+

ALKALINE SOILS

SEMI-ARID ENVRIONMENT

Poor germination, Non-availability of soil mineralsDecrease in yield

Fallow lands

Suitable for growth of Prosopis Juliflora

-Energy Needs-Charcoal Making- Biochar- Wood for utility-Pods / leaves as livestock feed

AFPRO22Human / Social Natural / Environmental / Physical Economic / Political

SCENARIO 1

Policies/Structures Vulnerability Adaptability

Rural Poverty Livelihoods Diversification

Appropriate Skills Water Management

Agriculture Production Water Resources

Energy

Climate Change

Community Empowerment

Bio Diversity

“VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ENHANSING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE

CHANGE IN SEMI-ARID AREAS OF INDIA”

Vulnerability assessment tools CC Vulnerability assessment tools Software / assessment tools Cristal Other tools

Climate Changes in India

Increase in surface temperature by 0.4 degree C over the past century.

Warming trend along the west coast, in central India, the interior peninsula, and northeastern India.

Climate Changes in India

Cooling trend in northwest India and parts of South India.

Regional monsoon variations: increased monsoon seasonal rainfall along the west coast, northern Andhra Pradesh and North-western India, decreased monsoon seasonal rainfall over eastern Madhya Pradesh, North-eastern India, and parts of Gujrat and Kerala.

Climate Changes in India

Observed trends of multi-decadal periods of more frequent droughts, followed by less severe droughts.

Studies have shown a rising trend in the frequency of heavy rain events and decrease in frequency of moderate events over central India from 1951 to 2000.

26

Climate Changes in India

Records of coastal tide gauges in the north Indian ocean for the last 40 years has revealed an estimated sea level rise between 1.06-1.75 mm per year.

The available monitoring data on Himalayan glaciers indicates recession of some glaciers. 27

Per-capita Carbon –dioxide emission (Metric Tons)

USA Europe Japan China Russia India World average

0

5

10

15

20

25

20.01

9.4 9.87

3.6

11.71

1.02

4.25

Impacts of Climate Changes

Water resources Agriculture and food production Health Forests Coastal areas Vulnerability to extreme events Bioenergy Livelihoods Environment Economy Ecology

29

National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC)

Protecting the poor and vulnerable sections of society through sustainable development sensitive to climate change

Achieving national growth objectives through a qualitative change in direction, ecological sustainability, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.

30

National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC)

Efficient and cost effective strategies for end use Demand side Management.

Technologies for adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions.

Promote sustainable development - Regulatory and voluntary mechanisms

31

Core of NAPCC - National Missions

National Solar Mission:The NAPCC aims to promote the development and use of solar energy for power generation and other uses with the ultimate objective of making solar competitive with fossil-based energy options.

National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency: Current initiatives are expected to yield savings of 10,000 MW by 2012.

These National Missions are being institutionalized by the respective Ministries/ Departments.

Core of NAPCC - National Missions

National Mission on Sustainable Habitat: To promote energy efficiency as a core component of urban planning.

National Water Mission: With water scarcity projected to worsen as a result of climate change, the plan sets a goal of a 20% improvement in water use efficiency through pricing and other measures.

Core of NAPCC - National Missions

National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem: The plan aims to conserve biodiversity, forest cover, and other ecological values in the Himalayan region, where glaciers that are a major source of India’s water supply are projected to recede as a result of global warming.

National Mission for a “Green India”: Goals include the afforestation of 6 million hectares of degraded forest lands and expanding forest cover from 23% to 33% of India’s territory.

Core of NAPCC - National Missions

National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture: The plan aims to support climate adaptation in agriculture through the development of climate-resilient crops, expansion of weather insurance mechanisms, and agricultural practices.

National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change: To gain a better understanding of climate science, impacts and challenges, the plan envisions a new Climate Science Research Fund, improved climate modeling, and increased international collaboration. It also encourage private sector initiatives to develop adaptation and mitigation technologies through venture capital funds.

Source: New Indian Express

Climate Change will put

additional stress in rural

areas

Rural Livlihoods - ResourcesThe livelihoods of the rural poor are directly

dependent on environmental resources.

Are vulnerable to weather and climate variability

land Water

Forests Energywater stress

increases

groundwater levels recede

Rural Poor Paying the most

Climate change will only exacerbate the vulnerabilities of the rural poor. As climate-sensitive, natural ecosystems deteriorate, subsistence will slip further out of reach.

India’s rural poor, who have least contributed to Climate Change, will pay some of the problem’s heaviest tolls.

In the life of a farmer climate Variability and Extreme events

are more important than climate change

Climate Change / Variability in Semi-arid regions

Precipitation is less than potential evapo-transpiration.

Low annual rainfall of 25 to 60 centimeters and having scrubby vegetation with short, coarse grasses; not completely arid.

Climate Change / Variability in Semi-arid regions

Climate Variability and extremes are an expected characteristic of semi-arid lands.

The people vulnerable to droughts, which trigger frequent subsistence crises

Increasing crop failures, dislocation, famine, poverty, increases stratification and the social inequities.

In Andhra Pradesh 2009 witness to• 50 years old drought • 100 years old flood

AFPRO44Human / Social Natural / Environmental / Physical Economic / Political

SCENARIO 1

Policies/Structures Vulnerability Adaptability

Rural Poverty Livelihoods Diversification

Appropriate Skills Water Management

Agriculture Production Water Resources

Energy

Climate Change

Community Empowerment

Bio Diversity

“VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ENHANSING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE

CHANGE IN SEMI-ARID AREAS OF INDIA”

GSBC PROJECT INTEGRATED APPROACH

Major challenges of Agriculture

Climate change - variability - extremes

Soil fertility Water management

Impact of hazardous

pesticides and nitrogen fertilizers

Burning of crop residue

Alkalinity of soils

Mahabubnagar District Rainfall Pattern

y = -4.6207x + 851.14

R2 = 0.1374

0

100

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1952

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0120

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0720

0708

2008

0920

0910

2010

1120

1112

2012

1320

1314

Crop Water

Soil Climate

Energy Environment

FACILITATION RESEARCH

ACTIVITY

CAPACITYDEVELOPMENT

Field level interventions

CULTURAL

SPIRITUAL

BELIEFS

RITUAL

S

FESTIVALS

ALTARS

CREMATION

SOURCE

S (BIOMASS)

GOOD STOVES• T

LUDs

• Other stoves

CROP

RESIDUE

POULTRY LITTER

WASTE MANAGEMENT• S

ludge

PRACTICES

FOOD

PRESERVING FOOD

CLEANING

MEDICINE

MATTRESS

TOOTH POWDER

AIR QUALITY• CO

2 / CH4

WATER TREATM

ENT

AQUARIUM /

TERRARIUMS

BIOCHAR

BRICKS

BIOCHAR

URINALS

SOAK PITS

FILTERING MEDIA

INSECT REPELLE

NT

SOIL AMENDMENT

INCREASED PRODUCTION

SOIL TEMPERATURE REGULATED

MOISTURE RETENTION

WATER CONSERVATION

NITROGEN / PHOSPHOROUS

RETENTION

NURSERIESPESTICIDES

ADBSORBTION

SOIL MICROBES DENSITY

INCREASE

BIOCHAR COMPOST

EARTHWORMS INCREASE

TERMITES / ANTS

REPULSION

CARBON SEQUESTRATIO

N

ANIMAL

S

POULTRY

- CH4 REDUCTION

LIVESTOCK - URINE

AND DUN

G

FYM /

COMPOST

BIOMASS

BIOCHAR

ENERGY

BIOCHARCULTURE

Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar Reddy, GEOhttp://e-geo.org | http://biocharculture.com

SOIL

BIOCHAR

BIOCHAR COMPOST

AGRICUTURE

PADDY METHANE

EMISSIONS REDUCTION

PESTICIDE & COMPLEX

CHEMICALS AFFECTS

MITIGATION

EMMISIONS REDUCTION FROM FARM

YARD MANURES

AND COMPOSTS

CROP RESIDUE

MANAGEMENT

ANIMALS

APPLICATION IN ANIMAL PLACES TO TAP URINE, SANITATION

AND EMISSIONS REDUCTION

RUMINANT ANIMALS METHANE

EMISSIONS REDUCTION

AS FEED ADDITIVE

SOAKING IN WITH

ANIMALS URINE AND EXCRETA -

VALUE ADDITION

ENERGY

SOURCE FROM

EFFICIENT TLUD COOK

STOVES

AS BY PRODUCT

FROM GASIFIER STOVES,

BOILERS ETC

CHARCOAL PRODUCTIO

N FROM BIOMASS /

WASTE MANAGEME

NT

HABITAT

BIOCHAR BRICKS

BIOCHAR IN AQUARIUMS

BIOCHAR IN POULTRY FARMS

BIOCHAR IN FRIDGES,

MATTRESSES, ETC.

SANITATION

BIOCHAR URINALS

BIOCHAR TOILETS

BIOCHAR IN CATTLE SHEDS

CLEANING PLATES / UTENSILS

BATHING

HEALTH

CLEANING TEETH

BIOCHAR TABLETS

BIOCHAR IN FOOD AS PART OF FOOD

PREPARATIONS

WATER

WATER PURIFICATION – COLOR,

ODOR, REMOVAL

OF HARMFUL

ELEMENTS, ETC.

RITUAL / SPIRITUAL

/ RELIGIOUS

/ PRACTICES

FIRE / ALTAR / YAGNAS / AGNIHOTRA

FIRE DURING

FESTIVALS

CREMATIONS

NATURAL / ARTIFICIAL FIRES IN

FORESTS / FIELDS, ETC.

BIOCHARCULTURE

Biocharculture

Biocharculture is the process of using Biochar,

including for cultivation of crops

•Biochar is the charcoal produced from carbonaceous source material. Sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide in terrestrial ecosystems•Biocharculture is one of the means to integrate for sustainable cultivation and carbon sequestration.•Biochar is usually produced at around temperatures 300 to 600 degrees centigrade for example as found in the common biomass cook stoves.•Because of its macromolecular structure dominated by aromatic C, Biochar is more recalcitrant to microbial decomposition than uncharred organic matter

Biocharculture Adaptation benefits

Securing the crop from drought and climate variabiiity

Reclaim the degraded soils,

water conservation,

Lessen the impact of hazardous

pesticides and complex

chemicals & to reduce plant

uptake.

reducing emissions and increasing the

sequestration of greenhouse gases

Conversion of crop residue into

Biochar an option and address

carbon sequestration

Increase in crop yield

increases in C, N, pH, and available

P to the plants

Impacts of Biochar last more than 1000 years.

Temperature regulation in the

soil

Reduction in leaching of the bio / chem fertilizers

applied

Increase in the soil microbes / worms at the biochar and

soil interface

CONTROL AND BIOCHAR - OKRA

Farmers focus80% ON CROP20% ON SOIL

BIOCHAR COMPOST

APPLICATION IN THE FIELDS

OKRA - CONTROL AND BIOCHAR PLOTS

CONTROL BIOCHAR COMPOST

4 KGS 8 KGS 12 KGS

1.5 FEET 6 FEET

CONTROL

BIOCHAR

Adaptation Objective

Initiatives Requirement

1 Better management of soil moisture

SMC conservation Addition of OM (compost, manures, GM,GLM) Cover crop, mulching, residue incorporation

- Support for Labor Cost

- Biomass availability

2 Efficient use of Ground water

Minimising the ground water usage for critical irrigation. Social regulations to control competitive digging of bore wells

- Credit support

- Community support

Increasing efficiency of water use

SRI under borewell and tanks

- Comm.support- Technical support

Micro-irrigation methods (drips, spriklers)

- Credit/financial support

Strategies to be followed in designing adaptations

Adaptation Objectives

Initiatives Requirement

3 Diversify crop / farm systems

Crop diversification from wheat, paddy to millets, Maize, Sorghum

Mono cropping to intercropping, mixed cropping

Soil fertility improvement through cropping systems

Encouraging horticulture

Biomass improvement/ integration of Multi-Purpose Trees

Improved implements

Easing bullock constraint

- Drought , stress r resistant varieties

- Timely availability of seeds, contingency seeds

- Credit for seeds

- CB on technology

- Good planting material

- Timely availability of implements

- Timely availability

of drought power- Marketing support

Adaptation Objectivr

Initiatives Requirement

4 Strengthening livestock production system

Health care system for preventive diseases Strengthening sheep and goat systems through CIG concept. Strengthening Fisheries production

- Support for man power

- Technical support

5 Promoting alternate livelihood activities for income

Promoting back yard poultry Heifer rearing Ram lamb rearing actvity

- Credit support

- Technical support

6 Creating Buffers Community managed fodder banks

Seed Banks to maintain buffer seed and seeds of contingent crops

- Infrastructure

- Capacity Building

- Manpower

BIOCHAR RESULTS

GSBC PROJECT, 2009 (DORUGHT PREVAILED DURING THE GROWING SEASON)

Methane Emissions from paddy fields

Biochar – livestock urine

BIOCHAR URINALS

TAPPING NITROGEN FROM URINE OF ANIMALS AND PEOPLE USING BIOCHAR

OTHER BIOCHAR APPLICATIONS

BIOCHAR BRICKS, GREEN BUILDINGS

Bone

Brick pieces

Pottaryshards

Biochar /Charcoal

Slag

Quartz

Soil

MAGH SERIES BIOCHAR PRODUCING STOVES

GOOD STOVES

http://

goodstove.co

m

MAGH SERIES BIOCHAR PRODUCING STOVES

NO SMOKING

WATER – LESS PLANTS

BIOCHAR LINKS

Terra Preta Info - Indian conextBiochar ExperimentsBiochar - Alkaline soilsBiochar - Alkaline soils reportCharcoal production

Biochar ProductionMagh Biochar RetortGEO mini metal kilnARTI - Charcoal Biochar PlantsProsopis JulifloraProsopis Juliflora report

StovesMagh series tlud woodgas or microgasifier stovesAnila

Biochar UrineBiochar Urinals

Biochar Soil lifeTermitesEarthworms

Pottery ShardsIn soils

CleaningBiochar for Cleaning

Green BuildingsBiochar Bricks

Rural TrashBiochar plus

GSBC PROJECT ON CNN

BIOCHAR INDIA | BIOCHARCULTURE | GOOD STOVE | GEO | GOODPLANET

Thank you..