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Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand. Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change. Outline:. Background - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Suppakorn ChinvannoSEA START RC
Chulalongkorn UniversityThailand
Outline:
• Background
• Objective & Scope of study
• Study sites
• Method
• Finding (preliminary)
• Impact of climate change on rice production
• Rain-fed farmer vulnerability analysis
Remarks:• Surveyed data still need to be validated and verified• Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed• Adaptation options is to be further evaluated
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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Background
• Part of AIACC AS07 Regional Study: Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change
• Joint research effort by• Suppakorn Chinvanno1
• Boontium Lersupavithnapa2
• Somkith Boulidam3
• Thavone Inthavong4
• Chitnucha Budhaboon5
1 Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
2 Faculty of Agriculture, Ubonratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani,Thailand3 Faculty of Social Science, National University of Laos , Vientiane, Lao PDR4 National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute, Lao PDR5 Rice Research Center, Thailand
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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Climate Variability Climate Change Scenario
Changes in yield of rice production
Coping capacity
Vulnerability Vulnerability
Sustainable livelihood
sufficient
Adaptation
yes
nonew
expand
Changes in yield of rice production scenarios
Objectives: Pilot study to identify & characterize vulnerability & adaptation to climate change impact of rain-fed farmer and build regional capacity & network of researchers
• Who will vulnerable?• How?• How did they
response to the past climate variability?
• Can this cope with future change?
• If not, what to do about future?
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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Scope:
Study Sites:
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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Thailand: Ubonratchathani Province, covering 18 villages in 2 districts and devided into:• Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption • Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commerci
al rice• Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only• Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only• Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to co
mmercial rice – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution
Lao PDR: Savannakhet Province, covering 4 villages in Songkhone District
Finding: Preliminary result
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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• Survey data still need to be validated and verified• Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed• Adaptation options is to be further evaluated
Simulated Rice Yield under Different Climate Scenarios in Savannakhet
Province, Lao PDR
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
1xCO2 (1980-1984) 1.5xCO2 (2040-2044) 2xCO2 (2066-2070)
Climate Scenarios
Yie
ld(t
/ha)
Min
Max
Ave
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Simulated yield is done using 5 years climate condition under each CO2 scenarios and average the results
Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Simulated rice yield (ton/ha)
Climate scenario Min Max Ave % change from ba seline year
1xCO2 919.6 5974.6 2497.4
1.5xCO2 866.2 5470.0 2355.0 -5.7%
2xCO2 1021.8 5877.4 2493.3 -0.2%
Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Simulated rice yields under different climate scenarios in 3 regions in Thailand Selected climate scenarios: by annual rainfall
Dry Year Median Year Wet Year
Yield SD % chang e from ba
seline year
Yield SD % change f rom baseli ne year
Yield SD % change from base line year
kg ha-1 kg ha-1 kg ha-1
Northern Thailand: 1.0CO2 2685 537 2340 399 2781 638
Chiang Rai Province
1.5CO2 2834 480 5.55% 2678 480 14.44% 2700 574 -2.91%
2.0CO2 2553 875 -4.92% 3402 1104 45.38% 3248 975 16.79%
North Eastern Thailand:
1.0CO2 2544 557 2459 591 2635 1083
Sakonnakorn Province
1.5CO2 2644 887 3.93% 2257 617 -8.21% 2355 842 -10.63%
2.0CO2 2615 1137 2.79% 2771 1400 12.69% 2812 1384 6.72%
Central Thailand: 1.0CO2 2421 732 2481 743 2456 720
Sakaeo Province 1.5CO2 2657 623 9.75% 2633 671 6.13% 2360 681 -3.91%
2.0CO2 2527 823 4.38% 2878 796 16.00% 2516 803 2.44%
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1980-89 2040-49 2066-75
Ave Max Min
Simulated rice yield under climate scenareio at Sakonnakorn province
kg ha-1
1.0XCO2 1.5XCO2 2.0XCO2
I = Standard deviation
Averaged simulated rice yields of each decade under three climate scenarios: Sakonnakorn Province, North-eastern
Thailand
y = -334.98x + 2863R 2 = 0.8062
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1.0XCO2 1.5XCO2 2.0XCO2
Impact of climate change on average rice yield at Sakonnakorn province
kg ha-1
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Stakeholders
engagement
Engaging Local Community: Target social group – Rain-fed farmer community
Conduct on-farm interview & focus group discussion with local farmer communities
•Thailand: North-eastern region - Ubonratchathani province (covering 600 households in 18 villages in Det-udom and Najaluay Districts)
•Lao PDR: Central region - Savannakhet province (covering 160 households in 4 villages in Songkhone district)
Engaging Policy Maker: Series of meeting & workshop
Defining rain-fed farmer with risk to climate impact – potential vulnerable group:
Multi-criteria analysis
Coping Capacity
Livelihood dependency on rice production
Household Economic Condition
1. Good / sustained
2. Bad / not sustained
3. High
4. Low
5. High 6. Low
Potential Vulnerable Group2+4+5 2+3+5 2+4+6
Potential Non-Vulnerable Group1+3+6 1+4+5 1+3+5 1+4+6 2+3+6
Farmer community
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Identifying
vulnerable group
No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range
Criteria I: Household economic condition
1 Sufficient household productivity
Total annual household produc tivity value / Total annual hous ehold consumption value
>= 1.5 = 1<1.5 -1= 2<1 = 3
2 2 - 6
2 Surplus household productivity
Percentage of annual househol d surplus productivity value / T
otal household consumption
>= 50% = 1<50-20%= 2<20% = 3
2 2 - 6
3 - Self sufficient rice consumption
Total annual rice production / T otal annual rice consumption
>= 1 = 1<1 = 2
1 1 - 2
4 Land ownership Own or rent farm land for farming
Yes = 1 No = 2
1 1 - 2
5 Sufficient productivity fro m non climate sensitive so
urce to guarantee food security
- (Total livestock + Off farm rev enue) / Total food consumption
>= 1= 1<1-0.5 = 2<0.5 = 3
1 1 - 3
Criteria II: Rice production dependency
6 Household sustained liveli hood without rice producti
on
Total other productivity value / Total household consumption *
100
>70 % = 1<70–50%= 2<50% =3
3 3 - 9
7 Level of food security from nature production
Total value of food from natura l source / Total food consumpti
on *100
>70 % = 1<70–50%= 2<50% = 3
3 3 - 9
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaulate
climate risk – Lao PDR
No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range
Criteria III: Coping capacity
8 Capacity of saving to supp ort household livelihood
Total household saving (cas h + rice in the store + livest
ock) / Total household consu mption *100
>30 % = 1<30-10% = 2<10% = 3
2 2 - 6
9 External financial supportmechanism
Accessible to external loan t o support climate impact
Adequate = 1 Partial= 2
None or barely =3
1 1 - 3
10 Capacity to maintain liveli hood with total lost rice pr
oduction
(Total household saving + Al ternate & extra income + ca
sh convertible product e,g, li vestock) / (Household consu
mption 5 months + total cos t of rice production)
>=1 = 1<1 – 0.5= 2<0.5 = 3
2 2 - 6
11 Capacity of natural produc t to maintain food security
Total nature product / Total f ood consumption *100
>=70 % = 1<70-30 %= 2< 30% = 3
1 1 - 3
Total possible Range Scoring = 19 – 55• Low climate risk group = 19 – 31• Moderate climate risk group = >31 – 43• High climate risk group = >43 – 55
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaulate
climate risk – Lao PDR
Climate risk farmer - Current conditionLao PDR
Low Risk10566%
Moderate Risk45
28%
High Risk106%
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk
- Potential Vulnerable Group Lao PDR
Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress
Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate
High Low Moderate
High
Total Vulnerability Score 19 - 55 19 - 31
>31 - 43 >43 - 55 19 - 31
>31 - 43 >43 - 55
Average Score 26.4 37.2 46.9 26.5 36.5 47.0
Household Economic Condition
7 - 19 9.1 13.5 17.0 9.3 13.7 17.6
Livelihood Dependency on Rice
6 - 18 7.0 10.1 14.4 7.0 9.5 14.1
Coping Capacity 6 - 18 10.4 13.6 15.5 10.2 13.2 15.3
Number of Households 162 105 45 10 98 49 13
Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 15%
Household vulnerable to climate impact = 45 households (28% of total survey)
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed
farmer
Climate risk farmer with Climate Stress - Lao PDR
Low Risk98
61%
Moderate Risk49
31%
High Risk138%
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk
Climate risk farmer - Current conditionLao PDR
Low Risk10566%
Moderate Risk45
28%
High Risk106%
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk
- Potential Vulnerable Group Lao PDR
Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress
Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate
High Low Moderate
High
Total Vulnerability Score 19 - 55 19 - 31
>31 - 43 >43 - 55 19 - 31
>31 - 43 >43 - 55
Average Score 26.4 37.2 46.9 26.6 35.9 47.1
Household Economic Condition
7 - 19 9.1 13.5 17.0 9.7 14.1 17.9
Livelihood Dependency on Rice
6 - 18 7.0 10.1 14.4 6.9 9.0 13.6
Coping Capacity 6 - 18 10.4 13.6 15.5 10.0 12.8 15.5
Number of Households 162 105 45 10 84 61 15
Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 30%
Household vulnerable to climate impact = 97 households (60% of total survey)
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed
farmer
Climate risk farmer with Climate Stress - Lao PDR
Low Risk84
53%
Moderate Risk61
38%
High Risk159%
Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk
Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change – Lao PDR
(97 households or 60% of total survey)
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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- - Comparison of socio economic condition: Vulnerable VS Non vulnerable groups
Without clim ate stress
- With climate stress lost of rice production by 30%
Comparison V ulnerable to N
- on vulnerablegroup Average from total households in each group Total
surveyed population
-Non Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Economic condition:
Annual total productivity (per capita) $284 $296 $236 -20.27%
Annual consumption (per capita) $145 $150 $142 -5.33%
- Annual total rice production (value per capita) $81 $61 $54 -11.48%
Percentage of HH annual rice production to total productivity
3112. % 2191% 2627% 19.90%
- Percentage of annual HH on farm production to total productivity
6416. % 5996. % 6122.%
2.10%
- Percentage of HH annual off farm production to total productivity
3584. % 4004% 3878.%
-3.15%
HH cash saving (per capita) $39 $49 $39 -20.41%
HH other saving (includes cash convertible livestock) per capita
$75 $113 $75 -33.63%
Farming system structure:
HH farm size per capita 0.47 0.47 0.46 -2.13%
HH rice productivity per land unit (ton/ha) 1.66 1.7 1.63 -4.12%
HH cost production $36 $45 $30 -33.33%
Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability:
#1 – Seek for off-farm products e.g. products from natural source#2 – Implement alternate crop#3 – Increase buffer in coping capacity, e.g. community based rice bank, livestock
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Lao PDRIncrease total productivity by increasing rice production by improving farming / crop management method and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably through increasing livestock and / or off-farm income.
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate
climate risk – Thailand
No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range
Criteria I: Household economic condition
1 Sufficient household incom e
Total household income / Tot al household expenditure
>= 1.5 = 1<1.5 -1= 2<1 = 3
1 1 - 3
2 Surplus household income Percentage of Total househol - d income Total household e
xpenditure) / Total household expenditure
=> 10% = 1, >10% to <-10% = 2, =<-10% = 3
0.5 0.5 – 1.5
3 - Self sustained rice consumption
Total annual rice production / Total annual rice consumptio
n
>= 1 = 1<1 = 2
1 1 - 2
4 Land ownership Own or rent farm land for farming
Yes = 1 No = 2
0.5 0.5 - 1
5 Gross Profit & Loss from ric e producing
Percentage of (Total value of - rice production Total cost of
production) / Total cost of production
>= 150% = 1, <150 to >100% = 2, =<100% = 3
0.5 0.5 - 1.5
6 Net Profit & Loss from riceproducing
(Total value of rice productio - n Cost of production) / (Tota
l cost of production + Househ old fixed expenses 4 months)
> 100% = 1, 100 to >50% = 2, =<50-0% = 3, =<0% = 4
0.5 0.5 - 2
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate
climate risk – Thailand
No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range
Criteria II: Rice production dependency
7 Household sustains liveliho od without rice production
Total extra income / Total fix ed expenses
>=1 = 1, <1 to >0.5 = 2, =<0.5 = 3
2 2 - 6
8 Level of livelihood depende ncy on rice production
Percentage of (Total househo - ld expenditure Extra income
)/Total expenditure
<40% = 1, 40-70% = 2, >70% = 3
2 2 - 6
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate
climate risk – Thailand
No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range
Criteria III: Coping capacity
9 Capacity of alternate sourc e of income to support hou
sehold livelihood
Total alternate income / (Tot al cost of rice production + Fi
xed household expenditure 4month)
>=1 = 1, <1 = 2 1 1 - 2
10 External financial supportmechanism
Accessible to external loan to support climate impact
Adequate = 1 Partial= 2
None or barely =3
1 1 - 3
11 Capacity of saving to suppo rt household livelihood
(Cash saving + Total value of livestock) / (Total cost of rice
production + Fixed househol d expenditure for one crop se
ason: 4 month)
>=1 = 1, <1 = 2 1 1 - 2
12 Capacity to maintain livelih ood with total lost rice prod
uction
(Cash saving + Extra income + Cash convertible livestock + Loan allowance) / (Total ho
usehold expenditure + Total cost of rice production)
>1.5 = 1, 1.5 to >1 = 2, 1 to > 0.5 = 3, =<0.5 = 4
1 1 - 4
Total possible Range Scoring = 12 – 34• Low climate risk group = 12 – 19● Moderate climate risk group = >19 – 26● High climate risk group = >26 – 34
Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption
Potential Vulnerable Group – Thailand
Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress
Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate
High Low Moderate
High
Total Vulnerability Score 1 2 - 34 1 2 - 19
>19 - 26 >26 - 34 1 2 - 19
>19 - 26 >26 - 34
Average Score 15 23.2 28.6 15.1 22.7 28.7
Household Economic Condition
4 - 11 6.3 6.6 8.9 6.3 6.7 9.1
Livelihood Dependency on Rice
4 - 12 4.5 10.5 12.0 4.3 10.1 12.0
Coping Capacity 4 - 11 4.4 6.1 7.7 4.5 5.9 7.5
Number of Households 98 34 29 35 32 27 39Climate risk farmer - Current SituationZone 1 - Thailand
Low Risk34
35%
Moderate Risk29
30%
High Risk35
35%Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk
Climate risk group – Thailand when rice production reduced by 15%
Household vulnerable to climate impact = 28 households (28.6%)
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed
farmer
Climate risk farmer - with climate stress Rice production reduced 15%
Zone 1 - Thailand
Low Risk32
33%
Moderate Risk27
28%
High Risk39
39%Low Risk
Moderate Risk
High Risk
Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change
(28 households in Zone 1 Thailand)
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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- Comparison of socio economic condition
Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption
Without cli mate stress
- With climate stress lost of rice production by 15%
Comparison Vuln -erable to Non vul
nerable group
Average from total households in each group Totalsurveyed population
-Non Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Economic condition:
HH income per capita $252 $241 $203 -15.77%
Income from rice per capita $142 $119 $125 5.04%
Income from rice to Total income (%) 70.49 65.77 75.83 15.30%
Extra income to Total income (%) 29.51 34.33 24.17 -29.60%
Total expenditure per capita $164 $156 $185 18.59%
Cash saving per capita $19 $11 $38 245.45%
Total Cash convertible livestock per capita $230 $252 $176 -30.16%
Debt per capita $190 $207 $148 -28.50%
Weighted interest rate (%) 6.42 6.42 6.41 -0.16%
Farming system structure:
Farm size per capita (Ha) 1.0 1.2 0.85 -29.17%
Rice productivity per Ha (ton/ha) 1.2 1.1 1.4 27.27%
Gross profit from rice production per Ha (%) 188 140 165 17.86%
Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability:
#1 – Seek for off-farm income – laboring in the city#2 – Increasing buffer in coping capacity – number of livestock#3 – Alternate crop
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Zone 1, ThailandIncrease income per capita by increasing extra income, perhaps to be higher than non-vulnerable group in order to cope with higher expenditure and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably through increasing cash convertible livestock.
Climate risk group & their characteristics to be analyzed in the same method for the farmer in other zones
● Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption• Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commercial rice• Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only• Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only• Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to commercial ric
e – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution
Concerned issue: Research gapVulnerability profile not explained & multi-dimension aspect, e.g. multiple climate stress, temporal aspect of the climate impact – time of occurrence, consecutive year of extreme event, dynamic of society, etc. not yet systematically covered.
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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Summary:
Climate change shows strong tendency to have impact on rain-fed rice agriculture system, particularly the increasing in magnitude and frequency of extreme climate variability.
Rain-fed farmer’s livelihood would be affected from the damage or reduction in rice production due to climate impact.
Engaging local stakeholders to get better understanding on current adaptation strategies & evaluate whether they would be sufficient to cope with future climate impact or not.
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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evaluationSome concerned issues – site specific / limitation /
feasibility• The threshold of natural system condition to sufficiently support
community in compensating the lost in rice production of farmer in Lao PDR
Also degradation of the natural system as well as change in population to the threshold that such system may be overly exploited.
• E conomic condition in the city in Thailand to support excess labor fro m upcountry, who try to seek for extra income to support their livelih
ood when income from rice production is not sufficient.
Innovative new adaptation strategies to cope with the future vulnerability to climate change impact need to be developed
Thank You
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C
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