Attitudes on Climate Change: Expressed Belief and Preference x Priority

Attitudes on Climate Change:Expressed Belief and Preference x Priority

Presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research

Austin, TexasMay 15, 2016

Gary Langer, presidentLanger Research Associates

Serious Problem?ABC News/Washington Post polls

Serious (NET) Very serious Not serious0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

69%

57%

29%

63%

52%

36%

June '14 Nov. '15

Gov’t should...ABC News/Washington Post polls

March '06 April '07 July '08 Nov. '150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

68% 70%

47%

21%

32%

5%

18%

Do more Same Less

Most Scientists...ABC News/Washington Post, Stanford, Ohio State U. polls

Oct. '97 Feb. '98 March '06 April '07 July '08 Dec. '09 Nov. '150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

35%43%

62%

51%

Agree Disagree

Views of Scientific Agreementby Seriousness and Gov’t Do

ABC News/Washington Post polls

Serious (NET) Very serious Do more Less0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

84%

74%

65%

6%

46%

33% 33%29%

Scientists agree (43%)Disagree (51%)

Seriousness by PID + IdeologyABC News/Washington Post poll

Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

81%

62%

43%

89%

67%

41%

72%

49%

28%

77%

54%

31%

Serious (NET) Very serious

Gov’t Do by PID + IdeologyABC News/Washington Post poll

Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

65%

47%

22%

71%

51%

25%

4%

22%

32%

5%11%

38%

Do more Less

Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

57%

44%

28%

63%

47%

25%

37%

52%

68%

31%

49%

70%

Agree Disagree

Scientists Agree by PID + IdeologyABC News/Washington Post poll

Expressed belief:Assertions of “belief” and

assessments of seriousnessreflect underlying values and attitudes

Seriousness by PID + Ideology - TrendABC News/Washington Post polls

Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

84%

68%

49%

87%

74%

56%

81%

62%

43%

89%

67%

41%

June '14 Nov. '15

-3 -6 -6 +2 -7 -15

Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

78%

61%

39%

84%

62%

42%

65%

47%

22%

71%

51%

25%

July '08 Nov. '15

Govt’d Do by PID + Ideology - TrendABC News/Washington Post polls

-13 -14 -17 -13 -11 -17

Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

55%

33%

20%

58%

38%

24%

57%

44%

28%

63%

47%

25%

Dec. '09 Nov. '15

Scientists Agree by PID + Ideology - Trend

ABC News/Washington Post polls

+2 +11 +8 +5 +9 +1

Preference X Priority

All Dems Inds Reps0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

59%

77%

61%

32%31%

13%

30%

55%

Favors govt' actionOpposes it

Next President: Someone Who...ABC News/Washington Post poll

ImportanceABC News/Washington Post poll

All Dems Inds Reps0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

68%

76%70%

39% 38% 39%

Favor/impt Oppose/impt

PxP ScoresABC News/Washington Post polls

1. Preference: +1 = favor, -1 = oppose

2. Priority: 100 = extremely important, 75 = very important, 50 = somewhat important, 25 = not so important

3. Multiply preference x priority; example:• +100 = favor action on climate change, extremely

important• - 100 = oppose action on climate change, extremely

important

Comparative PxP ScoresABC News/Washington Post poll

All Dems Inds RepsAction on climate change 29 58 29 -12Tax pledge -25 -33 -20 -21Compromise 15 21 22 -1Keep ACA 3 55 5 -63Path to c’zenship 3 30 5 -39Deal w/. Iran 2 24 5 -29

Attitudes on Climate Change:Expressed Belief and Preference x Priority

Thank you!