Climate Modelling, climate change and Natural Resources Management

Climate Modelling, CC and Natural Resources Management

Carlos NavarroJ. Ramirez, A. Jarvis, J. León

Challenges

1.PopulationGrow

Food security

Produce more and better

… less water, land and resources

How we can prepare

For thefuture? ?

¿Where is the ball?• Where is the ball now? • Where will be the ball in 20 seconds?• Who win the match?

Days

Months & Years

Decades

Predictibility fonts

Atmospheric composition

Actual weather

Sea Superficial Temperature

“Climate variability”

“Climate change”

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

382/83 1987 92/93 / 95 97/98 03/04/05 09/10 14/15

88/89 99/00/01 08/09 10/11

10/11: 1.000 millones de dólares97/98: 564 millones de dólaresEl Niño La NIña

15/16??

How to project the future?

Economic

Environmental

Global Regional

Pessimistic“Bussiness as usual”

OptimisticPerfect World

IntermediateP

E

P

E

P

E

P

E

Emission Scenarios

GCMs are the only way we can predict the future

climate

The ModelsGCM “Global Climate Model”

http://ccafs-climate.orgCCAFS Climate

• Progressive climate change over agriculture (22%),

• Ecology and species distribution (58%)

• Climate dynamics (3%)• Ecosystem Services (5%)• Non-academic (i.e. policy

making, food security, and adaptation planning (12% )

CCAFS-ClimateCitations

Significant impact by putting climate change

information into the hands of non-climate scientists

and next users which represent up to 19% of all

CCAFS-Climate users.

> 300 Publications

Progressive Climate Change

2030sCambios proyectados en clima al 2030’s (relativos al periodo 1960-1990). Resultados del promedio de 30 GCMs para el escenario CMIP5 RCP-4.5 para las regions naturales de Colombia.

GCMs

Effective adaptation

options

We need models to quantify the impacts and adaptation options for effective design

Impacts

Un EjemploProblemas con cafe

Climas se mueven hacia arriba

Rango Altitudinal

Tmedia anual actual

Tmedia anual futuro

Tmedia anual

cambio (ºC)

Ppt total anual actual

190-500 25.54 27.70 2.16 5891 6002 1.88501-1000 23.47 25.66 2.19 3490 3597 3.041000-1500 21.29 23.50 2.21 2537 2641 4.101500-2000 18.36 20.58 2.22 2519 2622 4.082000-2500 15.60 17.82 2.22 2555 2657 4.002500-3000 13.33 15.54 2.21 2471 2575 4.20

Temperatura media reduce por 0.51oC por cada 100m en la zona cafetero. Un cambio de 2.2oC equivale a una diferencia

de 440m.

Adaptabilidad en el Cauca• Cambios significativos a

2020s, cambios dráticos a 2050s. • El caso Cauca:

Reducción del área de crecimiento de café y cambios en la distribución geográfica. Algunas nuevas oportunidades.

MECETA

Instrumentos de Adaptación

Manejo

Nuevos mercados

Alternativas al cafe

Carlos Navarro-Racinesc.e.navarro@cgiar.org

Thank you!Blessings