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Newid Hinsawdd ac Affrica - Climate Change and Africa - Gareth Wyn Jones, Machynlleth 04/04/14
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Newid Hinsawdd ac Affrica
Prosiect Maposda:
Management and Policy Options for Sustainable Development of Communal Rangelands in Southern Africa
• Paulshoek, Namaqualand, De Affrica:
• Pentrefi Matsheng, Calahari, Botswana:
• Ha Lejone, Mynyddoedd Maloti, Lesotho [ger Argau Katsi]
Paulshoef, Namaquland, De AffricaPentrefi Matsheng, Calahari, BotswanaHa Lajone, ger argau Katsi, Mynyddoedd Maloti, Lethoso
Botswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villagesBotswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villages
Botswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villagesBotswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villages
Lesotho – Lesotho – Pelaneng-Bokong RMAPelaneng-Bokong RMA
-2.5-2
-1.5-1
-0.50
0.51
1.5
22.5
19
30
19
33
19
36
19
39
19
42
19
45
19
49
19
52
19
55
19
58
19
61
19
64
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
SP
I
Standardized Precipitation Index for Lesotho from 1930-1999
R = 0.624
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Standarized Precipitation Index (SPI). Regional Serie
So
uth
ern
Osc
illa
tion
Ind
ex
(SO
I)
A regression of SPI values for Lesotho against the Southern Oscillation Index
Rainfall distribution maps for Lesotho during wet and dry
South Africa - PaulshoekSouth Africa - Paulshoek
South Africa - PaulshoekSouth Africa - Paulshoek
Rainfall: 1999-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
1999: (199mm)2000: 158mm2001: 207mm2002: 140mm2003: 118mm2004:139mmAve: 152mm
•Automatic rain gauge (since May 1999) measures hourly solar radiation, temperature, RH, wind speed, wind direction, precipitation
•13 manually serviced rain gauges scattered throughout Paulshoek record daily rainfall amounts
Total number of animals in Paulshoek: 1971-2004
y = -0.3888x + 198.01
R2 = 0.0036y = -42.97x + 4187.5
R2 = 0.1202
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
Nu
mb
er o
f an
imal
s
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Rai
nfa
ll (
mm
)
…the study of periodic biotic events in relation to climatic and other factors
Phenology is…
Agriculture: timing of flower and fruit production influences crop yield
Ecology: influence on pollination and seed dispersal (population dynamics, competition, speciation)
Rangeland management: timing of grazing influences rangeland composition
Global change: indicators of changing climates (e.g. emergence date of first blue bells)
Rainfall: highly variable from year to year particularly in terms of month of precipitation
Growth: influenced quite strongly by rainfall – most plants respond to rain WHENEVER it falls and drop leaves when it doesn’t rain
Implications: Resting veld during October could influence seed production and rangeland composition
Flowering: much less variable than growth with a peaks around October – Severe drought reduces flower production
The impact of grazing on flower production
Cheiridopsis denticulata
Rainfall: 1999-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
1999: (199mm)2000: 158mm2001: 207mm2002: 140mm2003: 118mm2004:139mmAve: 152mm
•Automatic rain gauge (since May 1999) measures hourly solar radiation, temperature, RH, wind speed, wind direction, precipitation
•13 manually serviced rain gauges scattered throughout Paulshoek record daily rainfall amounts
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
24 July 1998 06 December1999
19 April 2001 01 September2002
14 January 2004
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Total Deaths
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004
Total Births
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004
Total Sales
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004
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