Newid Hinsawdd ac Affrica

Prosiect Maposda:

Management and Policy Options for Sustainable Development of Communal Rangelands in Southern Africa

• Paulshoek, Namaqualand, De Affrica:

• Pentrefi Matsheng, Calahari, Botswana:

• Ha Lejone, Mynyddoedd Maloti, Lesotho [ger Argau Katsi]

Paulshoef, Namaquland, De AffricaPentrefi Matsheng, Calahari, BotswanaHa Lajone, ger argau Katsi, Mynyddoedd Maloti, Lethoso

Botswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villagesBotswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villages

Botswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villagesBotswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villages

Lesotho – Lesotho – Pelaneng-Bokong RMAPelaneng-Bokong RMA

-2.5-2

-1.5-1

-0.50

0.51

1.5

22.5

19

30

19

33

19

36

19

39

19

42

19

45

19

49

19

52

19

55

19

58

19

61

19

64

19

68

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

SP

I

Standardized Precipitation Index for Lesotho from 1930-1999

R = 0.624

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Standarized Precipitation Index (SPI). Regional Serie

So

uth

ern

Osc

illa

tion

Ind

ex

(SO

I)

A regression of SPI values for Lesotho against the Southern Oscillation Index

Rainfall distribution maps for Lesotho during wet and dry

South Africa - PaulshoekSouth Africa - Paulshoek

South Africa - PaulshoekSouth Africa - Paulshoek

Rainfall: 1999-2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

1999: (199mm)2000: 158mm2001: 207mm2002: 140mm2003: 118mm2004:139mmAve: 152mm

•Automatic rain gauge (since May 1999) measures hourly solar radiation, temperature, RH, wind speed, wind direction, precipitation

•13 manually serviced rain gauges scattered throughout Paulshoek record daily rainfall amounts

Total number of animals in Paulshoek: 1971-2004

y = -0.3888x + 198.01

R2 = 0.0036y = -42.97x + 4187.5

R2 = 0.1202

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

Nu

mb

er o

f an

imal

s

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Rai

nfa

ll (

mm

)

…the study of periodic biotic events in relation to climatic and other factors

Phenology is…

Agriculture: timing of flower and fruit production influences crop yield

Ecology: influence on pollination and seed dispersal (population dynamics, competition, speciation)

Rangeland management: timing of grazing influences rangeland composition

Global change: indicators of changing climates (e.g. emergence date of first blue bells)

Rainfall: highly variable from year to year particularly in terms of month of precipitation

Growth: influenced quite strongly by rainfall – most plants respond to rain WHENEVER it falls and drop leaves when it doesn’t rain

Implications: Resting veld during October could influence seed production and rangeland composition

Flowering: much less variable than growth with a peaks around October – Severe drought reduces flower production

The impact of grazing on flower production

Cheiridopsis denticulata

Rainfall: 1999-2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

1999: (199mm)2000: 158mm2001: 207mm2002: 140mm2003: 118mm2004:139mmAve: 152mm

•Automatic rain gauge (since May 1999) measures hourly solar radiation, temperature, RH, wind speed, wind direction, precipitation

•13 manually serviced rain gauges scattered throughout Paulshoek record daily rainfall amounts

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

24 July 1998 06 December1999

19 April 2001 01 September2002

14 January 2004

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Total Deaths

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004

Total Births

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004

Total Sales

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004