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WA SET UP TIN MINE EXPORT TO CHINA and KUNMING-BANGKOK HIGHWAY
ROUTE R3W ON WA STATE
WA state in Myanmar set up Tin Mine in Nuoba District support by CHINESE
Geological exploration
WA state in Myanmar support by CHINA to do Route on KUNMING-BANGKOk
HIGH WAY ROUTE R3W
WA STATE IN MYANMAR HAVE REE RARE EARTH ELEMENTS DEPOSIT AND
CHINESE REMINING ! ENVIRONMENT CAN BE PROBLEM.
ဤ အစီရင္ခံစာ ၏ ရည္ညြန္းခ္်္ ္ား ၁- ျ န္ ာ ခဲ ျဖဳ-အျဖဳဳိ်္န်္ ထုတ္လုပ္ ႈ တုဳိးတ်္က ်ာင္း Australia ဘူ ဳိက ဗဒုကတဒီ ္ား် နဳိင္ငံတ်ာ ဒုကတဒနwebsite Research Gate ၌ ကရးဒားထားဒည္်ုဳိအကဒးစဳိတ္ကလ္လာ ဳိရာ ရာမွ ဝ ကဗဒ Nuoba ခရုဳိင္ တြင္ တရုပ္ဘူ ဳိက ဗ ပညာရရာမွင္ ္ားအ်ူအညီ ျဖင္္Mine ကဖာ္ထုတ္ခ္ဲက ်ာင္း တရုပ္ဘာဒာ ျဖင္္ကရးဒားထားကဒာ အ စီရင္ခံစာ်ုဳိ ရ ရရာမွဳိ ပါဒည္။(အကဒးစဳိတ္်ုဳိစာတ ္း ရာမွာဖတ္ရရာမွ ်ပါရန္)- ၂-တဖန္ထဳိင္ုးနဳိင္ငံ ရာမွ ဒုကတဒီ ္ားကရးကဒာ ်ူ င္(်န္ င္) -ဘန္က်ာ်္ အျ န္လ ္းဒုကတဒနစာကစာင္်ုဳိလည္း ကတြ္ရရာမွကီလ္လာခြင္္ရခ္ဲပါဒည္ ထဳိလု ္း်ုဳိ တရုပ္နဳိင္ငံ် ထဳိုင္းနဳိင္ငံနဲဲကထာ်္ပံ ကခ္းကငြအပါအဝင္ပူးကပါင္း ီးက ာင္ ကဖာ်္လုပ္ျခင္းျဖစ္ပါဒည္။ ထူးျခားခ္်္ ရာမွာ အျ န္လ ္း အ ရာမွတ္ R3W ရာမွာ ဝ နယ္ကျ အ ရာမွတ္ ၂ ်ုဳိ ျဖျဖတ္ဒန္းဒြားျခင္းျဖစ္ပါ ဒည္ အကဒးစဳိတ္်ုဳိ ်္လ်္ဖတ္ ်ည္္ ်ပါရန္
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wa_State
Wa State (Wa: Mēng Vax or Meung Va; Chinese: 佤邦; pinyin: Wǎ
Bāng; Burmese: ဝပြညန်ယ)်
The Wa State is an autonomous state in the northern Shan States,
one that is not recognized by either the Myanmar Government nor
international bodies except China.
It is currently subsumed under the Wa Special Region No. 2.of
northern Shan State.
The administrative capital is Pangkham (Chinese: 邦康; pinyin:
Bāngkāng, formerly known as Panghsang, 邦桑).
The name Wa derives from the Wa ethnic group, who speaks a
language in the Austroasiatic family of languages.
Wa State has a population of an estimated 558,000. Wa State is an
undefined area that encloses eastern Shan State.
Many of the Wa are animists, and a small proportion of the
population follows a derivative of either Buddhism or Christianity.
The Wa were once known as the "Wild Wa" by the British due to
their practice of headhunting.
In the case of Wa, China is definitely playing a double game by arming
the UWSA as more of a deterrent while professing to
respect the sovereignty of Myanmar in encouraging the peace efforts
of the government.
China, more for its commercial interests and border security is using
the UWSA as leverage and at the same time maintaining good
relations with Myanmar.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283318495_Tin_mining_in_Myanmar_Production
_and_potential
Tin mining in Myanmar: Production and potential
Article in Resources Policy 46(2):219-233 · December 2015
1st John Sykes
6.32 · University of Western Australia
2nd Nicholas Gardiner
18.92 · Curtin University
3rd Allan Trench
28.65 · University of Western Australia
4th Laurence Robb
34.92 · University of Oxford
Abstract
In 2014, Myanmar (Burma) confounded industry analysts by emerging to become the World's third biggest tin producer, experiencing a 5-year tin production increase of ca. 4900%. This surprise emergence of Myanmar as a major tin producer is a possible Black Swan event that potentially has significant repercussions both for the future of global tin production, and for the economic development of Myanmar. This is a disruptive event that has likely contributed to a substantial drop in tin prices in 2015. The Myanmar production increase came from a new mine site in Wa State, and not from the traditional tin-producing areas in the South. We discuss tin mining and potential in Myanmar and consider whether it could provide a foundation for the economic rehabilitation of the country.
N.J. Gardiner et al. / Resources Policy 46 (2015) 219–233 227
5.1. Wa State and the Man Maw mining district –
The Wa State is an autonomous state in the northern Shan States, one that is not recognized by either the Myanmar Government nor international bodies. It is currently subsumed under the Wa Special Region No. 2. Fig. 7 shows a map of Wa State. Wa State is occupied and administered by the United Wa State Army (UWSA), and has an estimated population of ca. 560,000. The Wa people are ethnic Chinese, the working language is Chinese, and the Renminbi is used as a currency. The UWSA effectively runs Wa as an independent state, with its own foreign policy, and with direct business dealings with China. As such, it is probable that most revenues from the tin mining activities go straight to the Wa government, largely by-passing the central Myanmar government. The Man Maw Mine site is thought to lie ca. 90 km from Pang Kham, the capital of Wa State (Fig. 7). It has been estimated that the mine site area has an extent of some 100 km2 , making it a significant mine within Myanmar (Cui Lin, Personal communication, 2015). Although a single mining area, it is worked by a number of small mining companies. The deposit is reported to be exclusively primary ore, grading 1–2% for the open pit operations and up to 40% for the underground. Annual production has been estimated to reach nearly 30,000 t of contained tin. Most of this production goes over the border into China, either as crushed ore (typically grading at 10% Sn), or as semi-processed concentrate (20–25% Sn). The future of tin production at Man Maw remains uncertain. It is believed that tin mining in Wa State became active in 2010, but no official figures are available. There is little geological data available, and consequently neither the remaining reserves, nor the mine life expectancy, are known. Local facilities remain poor and roads are in a bad condition, however it is reported that some repair work is being undertaken, and that a new power station is
planned. Further, at the time of writing (summer 2015), local fighting in the area has disrupted production.
FIG-7
The Black Swan status of Myanmar was recently demonstrated, when in 2013–2014 the rapid
exploitation of a previously unknown (at least to outsiders) hard rock tin resource, sited on the border
with China, apparently elevated Myanmar from very minor levels of production to the status of the
World's third largest tin producing country . According to ITRI figures, the Man Maw tin mining district
produced nearly 30,000 t last year (2014). Opinions remain divided about production levels in the
immediate term, with ITRI forecasting 35,000 t of tin (Sn) production from Myanmar (including 2000 t of
Sn not from Man Maw) for 2015, but Yunnan Tin, a major importer of tin concentrates, forecasting
24,000 t of contained Sn for 2015. China imported a massive 177,950 t of tin ores and concentrates in
2014 (gross weight), of which more than 97% was from Myanmar (Kettle et al., 2015a). There is
agreement that current production levels are unsustainable and will likely decline rapidly over the next
few years (ITRI, 2015; Kettle et al., 2015b). Whilst production is at these levels though, Myanmar is now
one of the World's largest tin miners.
Following Report
Geological characteristics of the tin polymetallic deposit in the Nuoba ore district of Wa State, Myanmar
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287048712_Geological_characteristics_of_the_tin_polymet
allic_deposit_in_the_Nuoba_ore_district_of_Wa_State_Myanmar
Article in Acta Geoscientica Sinica 34:188-192 · June 2013
DOI: 10.3975/cagsb.2013.s1.29
1st E. Li
2nd J.-Y. Zhang
Abstract
The tin polymetallic deposit in the Nuoba ore district of Wa State, Myanmar, is a
medium-size tin deposit discovered in the 2nd Special Zone in eastern Myanmar. In the
ore deposit, tin grade is relatively high and there exist such associated nonferrous
metals as lead and zinc. The ore deposit is a typical high-medium temperature
hydrothermal veinlike deposit. The ore bodies are strictly controlled by regional nearly
NS-trending and nearly EW-trending faults. This paper describes geological
characteristics of the tin deposit in Nuoba ore district, and makes an integrated analysis
of this deposit in the aspects of regional strata, structure, wall rock alternation, ore types
and ore-controlling factors.
http://www.docin.com/p-983673379.html
Geological characteristics of the tin polymetallic deposit in the Nuoba ore district of Wa State, Myanmar
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287048712_Geological_characteristics_of_the_tin_polymet
allic_deposit_in_the_Nuoba_ore_district_of_Wa_State_Myanmar
Article in Acta Geoscientica Sinica 34:188-192 · June 2013
DOI: 10.3975/cagsb.2013.s1.29
1st E. Li
2nd J.-Y. Zhang
Abstract
The tin polymetallic deposit in the Nuoba ore district of Wa State, Myanmar, is a
medium-size tin deposit discovered in the 2nd Special Zone in eastern Myanmar. In the
ore deposit, tin grade is relatively high and there exist such associated nonferrous
metals as lead and zinc. The ore deposit is a typical high-medium temperature
hydrothermal veinlike deposit. The ore bodies are strictly controlled by regional nearly
NS-trending and nearly EW-trending faults. This paper describes geological
characteristics of the tin deposit in Nuoba ore district, and makes an integrated analysis
of this deposit in the aspects of regional strata, structure, wall rock alternation, ore types
and ore-controlling factors.
http://www.docin.com/p-983673379.html
THE BANGKOK-R3W-KUNMING ROUTE IS ON THE WA STATE
IN MYANMAR The first Kunming-Bangkok route starts from Bangkok to Chiang Rai, running
on the 830 km. four lane highway, which is the main north-south highway of Thailand.
Then, it goes from Chiang Rai to a Thai’s border town, named Mai Sai, on the 60 km.
four lanes highway. After that, it passes a border bridge to a Myanmar’s border town,
named Tachilek, which is the starting point of a major highway named R3W(R3B).
This first part of R3W locates in Myanmar. This section is two-lane two-way
253 km, starting from Tachilek to Keng Tung, and to Mong La. Although, the
construction work is completed, the quality is still under the standard of international
highway. However, small to medium trucks are capable of transporting via this route
(see Figure 4). This route is on the Wa state in Myanmar. There are several fee
stations for collecting transit taxes along this route. Especially on the section of Tachilek to
Keng Tung, most taxes belong to the company that built the road.
PLEASE READ DETAIL IN FOLLOWING LINKS
http://www.slideshare.net/liyan_km/performance-analysis-
oflogistickunmingbangkokinfrastructure
http://wenku.baidu.com/view/7047cdf59e3143323968933f.html
การประชุมสัมมนาเชิงวิชาการประจําป 2549 การจัดการโลจิสติกสและโซอุปทาน คร้ังที่ 6
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The Impacts of Kunming-Bangkok expressway: Logistics Channel Analysis
Poon Thiengburanathum
Dept. of Civil Engineering, Chiang Mai University
Ruth Banomyong Faculty of Commerce & Accountancy, Thammasat University
Apichat Sopadang
Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Chiang Mai University
Abstract
The Kunming-Bangkok expressway is expected as an important infrastructure in this region. This logistics infrastructure functions as a land bridge between China and the ASEAN countries, particularly in Thailand. Once the project is fully functional, significant impacts can be anticipated, such as shifts of transportation mode, short and long term of economic and cultural changes. A schematic model is presented in this paper as a schematic decision making tools for evaluating transportation mode and route selection. This model is grounded on Stochastic and Analytical Heretical Process (AHP) techniques. The dimensions of cost, time, and reliability of service are integrated as key performance indices of the logistics system. Each business type has different kinds of requirements. The results show this expressway will be a major logistics channel between Thailand and the Southern part of China.
Introduction
Historically, the flows between Kunming and Bangkok have been recognized. However, traveling on the Mekong river was very rare at that time. People rather connect one and other by sea or air travels. The highland geology and political differences are the main obstructions (Berman, 1989). Improving the logistics infrastructure between these two cities has been a dream of many people in this region for a longtime. The Kunming-Bangkok expressway is expected to be the first importance jigsaw of logistics breakthrough.
การประชุมสัมมนาเชิงวิชาการประจําป 2549 การจัดการโลจิสติกสและโซอุปทาน คร้ังที่ 6
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Figure 1: Overall Asian Highway routes (United Nation, 2001)
The Kunming-Bangkok expressway involves four counties, such as the People's Republic of China, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand. It stretches south from Kunming to Jinghong and traverse the border at Jinghong into Laos. It crosses through highlands in southern Yunnan and Laos before entering Thailand, in which it continues southward until it reaches Bangkok.
This expressway is a part of Asian Highway project (initiated in 1959, that has a main goal for the integrated Asian Land) (United Nation, 2001). Asian Development Bank (ADB) plays a main role in initiating and supporting this project in several forms (e.g. loan offering and cross-border transport agreement coordinating).
It is expected to open in year 2008. The significant impacts can be anticipated, particularly in transportation mode and route. Therefore, this expressway is a part of whole scheme of globalization. This study reviews the basic characteristics of these infrastructures and also develops a schematic model to approximate behaviors of goods flows via different perspectives of demand types. “The Kunming-Bangkok expressway will create major change in this region in both economic and social paradigms” is set as a hypothesis of this study.
การประชุมสัมมนาเชิงวิชาการประจําป 2549 การจัดการโลจิสติกสและโซอุปทาน คร้ังที่ 6
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Figure 2: The Kunming-Bangkok expressway
The Kunming-Bangkok Routes
To connect Kunming and Bangkok within the continent, the Kunming-Bangkok routes are necessary. The Kunming-Bangkok expressway is referred as the last of the three routes that enables this integration. There are the follows: (Figure 2 and 3)
1) Bangkok- Chiang Rai-Mai Sai-Keng Tung-Mong La-Menghi-Yunjinghong-
Kunming 2) Bangkok- Chiang Rai-Chiang San-Mekong River-Yunjinghong/Kuanlei-
Kunming 3) Bangkok- Chiang Rai-Chiang Khong-Luang Namtha-Boten-Mohan-
Kunming
TheBangkok-R3W-Kunming Route is on the WA state in Myanmar
การประชุมสัมมนาเชิงวิชาการประจําป 2549 การจัดการโลจิสติกสและโซอุปทาน คร้ังที่ 6
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Figure 3: Alternatives Routes between Thai and China
The Bangkok-R3W-Kunming Route
The first Kunming-Bangkok route starts from Bangkok to Chiang Rai, running
on the 830 km. four lane highway, which is the main north-south highway of Thailand. Then, it goes from Chiang Rai to a Thai’s border town, named Mai Sai, on the 60 km. four lanes highway. After that, it passes a border bridge to a Myanmar’s border town, named Tachilek, which is the starting point of a major highway named R3W(R3B).
This first part of R3W locates in Myanmar. This section is two-lane two-way 253 km, starting from Tachilek to Keng Tung, and to Mong La. Although, the construction work is completed, the quality is still under the standard of international highway. However, small to medium trucks are capable of transporting via this route (see Figure 4). This route is on the Wa state in Myanmar. There are several fee stations for collecting transit taxes along this route. Especially on the section of Tachilek to Keng Tung, most taxes belong to the company that built the road.
The Bangkok-R3W-Kunming Route is on the WA State in Myanmar
การประชุมสัมมนาเชิงวิชาการประจําป 2549 การจัดการโลจิสติกสและโซอุปทาน คร้ังที่ 6
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Figure 4: Road Condition and Typical Transportation in the Myanmar R3W
highway (Banomyong et al., 2006)
The last section of R3W is Mong La to Yunjinghong, 140 km two-lane two-way highway. The road is still under improvement. Figure 5 shows the road condition of the China’s two-lane two-way highway, which illustrates the China readiness.
Figure 5: the road condition of the R3W China’s Two-Lane Two-Way highway
near Yunjinghong (Banomyong et al., 2006) Then, the last section of the Bangkok-R3W-Kunming route is the route 540 km
R3 highway, which links Yunjinghong and Kunming. From Yunjinghong to Xuxi the highway is four-lane two-way and from Xuxi to Kunming is six-lane two-way. Figure 6 illustrates the road condition of Yunjinghong to Xuxi. Within the year 2007, China aims to finish the improvement of this highway by making it better and shorter.
Figure 6: the road condition of the R3 highway, Four-Lane Two-Way highway
near Yunjinghong (Banomyong et al., 2006) Although the construction of this route has been significantly completed a few
years ago, most merchants and logistic service providers are reluctant to use this route. The major barriers are located in Myanmar, which are 1) Myanmar political issues. 2) Policies of transit fee, and 3) Quality of the highway. The minor barriers are
การประชุมสัมมนาเชิงวิชาการประจําป 2549 การจัดการโลจิสติกสและโซอุปทาน คร้ังที่ 6
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international logistics collaborations, which have been on the process of improvement (e.g. Cross-Border Transport Agreement).
The Bangkok-Mekong-Kunming Route
The Bangkok-Mekong-Kunming route also uses the 830 km. Bangkok to Chiang
Rai as the first section. Then, the second section is a local highway from Chiang Rai to Chiang San port, which is the Thai major port in the Mekong river. The length is about 60 km. Thai government has a plan to improve this section of highway into a 40 km route and to build the new port in the near-by location.
The third section is Mekong river. All the goods have to be relocated from trucks to ships. The length of this section is about 287 km from Chiang San to Kuwnlei or about 360 km from Chiang San to Yunjinghong. The Yunjinghong port, other than Kuwnlei, is planned for passenger accommodation , but not for commodity transportation. Since the Kuwnlei port is about 75-80 km far from Yunjinghong, the Kuwnlei port is positioned as a strategic port for the area.
After all of the goods pass through the customs process, they are reloaded into trucks or near-by warehouses. The method of loading and unloading between trucks and ships of the Mekong is still of primitive and man-power necessity . The crane and container system is still under the process of development. Then, the last section of this route is the R3 highway, as the same as the Bangkok-R3W-Kunming route. Figure 7 shows Typical China’s Port and Cargo Ship in the Mekong River
Figure 7: Typical China’s Port and Cargo Ship in
the Mekong River (Kuwnlai Port )
Nowadays, this route plays a main part serving the Thai and Yunnan logistics demands, particularly in the bulk commodities. However, this is still not effective, particularly during the first six months (November to May), during which the water levels of the river are low and the transportation capacity of the ships decrease significantly. For the worst case, during the dry season, the river water volume may not be enough for the transportation. However, China succeeded in improving the transportation efficiency of the upper Mekong river from Yunjinghong to Chiang Khong (Upper Mekong Navigation Improvement project).
การประชุมสัมมนาเชิงวิชาการประจําป 2549 การจัดการโลจิสติกสและโซอุปทาน คร้ังที่ 6
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Risks of transportation in this river are relatively high, no insurance company officially guarantees the logistics services along this river, therefore the transportations normally do carry on during the daytime.
Typically, the travel time between Chiang San and Yunjinhong is about 1 day upstream and 3 days downstream. Most transportation fleets are owned by Chinese, Loa, and Myanmar, respectively. Only skillful captains can effectively manage the ships.
Due to the installation of several dams along the northern part of river, China can now control the transportation flows along this river. Practically, China has the advantages beyond other GMS countries in term of transportations. Furthermore, the issues of environmental impacts for these changes on the Mekong river are still questionable in terms of sustainability and fairness (Berman, 1998).
The most barriers of transportation forn this route come from the natural and human factors. They can be summarized as 1) Volume of water during the dry season, 2) Risks due to the obstructions, 3) Environmental Impacts, 4) Political issues. Other barriers, such as infrastructure capability and logistics technologies can be feasibly improved step-by-step.
The Bangkok-R3E-Kunming Route
The last alternative route is R3E highway, which connects Thai and China
through the highland of Loas. The first section also starts from the Asian highway, Bangkok-Chiang Rai. While the second section is the highway 1152 and 1020 from Chiang Rai to Chiang Khong. This section is about 110 km long. Chiang Klong, a border city, has no bridge crossing the Mekong river yet. All cars and trucks have to use ferry boats for river crossing. The Chiang Khong bridge is expected to start the construction in the next few years. The ferries reach another side of river at Huay Xay, a border city of Loas.
The third section starts from Huay Xay, Louangnamtha, to Boten. This section is 228 long. This is the last section that is still under construction. The construction is divided into three parts responsibilitywise: Thai, Loas (supported by ADB), and China. According to the plan, the section will be finished in 2007 (see Figure 8). Boten is the end city of Loas. Another is called Mohan, a China border city. The last section, between Boten and Kunming is about 736 km. If China finish the upgrade and all construction along the section, the distance between Boten and Kunming can be shortened to 688 km.
Figure 8: The construction of R3E
การประชุมสัมมนาเชิงวิชาการประจําป 2549 การจัดการโลจิสติกสและโซอุปทาน คร้ังที่ 6
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The Bangkok-R3E-Kunming route is expected to be a major logistics route for road transportation (Kunming-Bangkok Expressway). During the R3E section, truck fleet can use this two-lane two-way highway at reasonable speeds, according to the slope, curve, and road conditions (e.g. 40 to 60 km/h at mountain condition). The design is expected to meet the international standards enabling container trucks participation in transportation.
The foreseen barrier of the route is the delay of the Mekong bridge construction crossing at Chiang Khong. However, the ferry boat can be temporarily utilized though causing a system bottleneck.
The characteristics of Kunming-Bangkok route can be summarized as shown in Table 1. Although the distances of these three routes are not significantly different, each route has its own peculiarity. Presently, the Mekong river route is the major logistics route. On the other hand, due to the Myanmar political issues and the transit fee, the R3W route is rarely used. When the R3E section is completed, this Bangkok- -Kunming expressway is hypothesized of bringing major changes into this region. Table 1: Basic Characteristics of Kunming-Bangkok Routes
Route Choice (Distance, km)
Logistics Infrastructure through Myanmar(R3W)
via Mekong River
through Loas (R3E)
Bangkok-Chiang Rai 4 lanes highway 830 830 830 Chiang Rai – Mai Sai 4 lanes highway 60 Chiang Rai – Chiang San 2 lanes highway 60 Chiang Rai – Chiang Khong 2 lanes highway 110 R3W 2 lanes highway 253 Mekong River Mekhong River
w/ Port 360
R3E 2 lanes highway 228 R3W/R3: Tachilek, Mong La, KunMing
6, 4, and 2 lanes highway 674
R3: Yunjinghong to KunMing
6 and 2 lanes highway 534
R3E/R3: Boten/Mohan to KunMing
6, 4, and 2 lanes highway 688
1817 1784 1856 Remark: Approximated distances after all projects is completed in 2007 Modeling Methodology
Typically, in analyzing the behavior of mode choice in transportation, econometric formulation (e.g. logit and probit model) is used. This method has several advantages, particularly in the detail analysis level. However, it has several drawbacks, in term of computational and data requirements, that the standard discrete choice models are immense. This study suggests a schematic model for analysis mode choice that is based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) concept. Banai-Kashani (1989) proposed the application of AHP in near-by domain. (i.e. a procedure for the problem of
การประชุมสัมมนาเชิงวิชาการประจําป 2549 การจัดการโลจิสติกสและโซอุปทาน คร้ังที่ 6
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multimodal urban corridor travel demand estimation by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process). He noted that the AHP approach deals efficiently with multidimensionality, nested demand structure and discrete travel decision making behavior. Liberatore (1995) successfully applied this method in the transport carrier and mode selection problem.
This study extends this concept for the logistics flow path problem, which
considers route and mode selection. The model consists of three main parts: system assessment, AHP, and sensitivity analysis (see Figure 9). A network mode represents a logistics infrastructure system, including arches and nodes. Arches represent potential logistics route that normally are lowest transportation cost (e.g. shortest path). Nodes stand for major cities or economic hubs. The information from the assessment part is used the AHP for evaluating choices. After that, sensitivity analysis can be applied.
Network Modeling
Demand Characteristic Assessment Criteria Weighting
Available Transportation Mode
Network Characteristic Assessment
Alternative Scoring
AHP Modeling
Figure 9: Modeling Framework This methodology can be extended from deterministic to stochastic level of
analysis by using Mote-Carlo technique. Stochastic modeling can give flexibility in terms of subjective judgment of inputs. Logistics Infrastructure Modeling
To have an insight in the logistics between Bangkok and Kunming, a network model of the logistic infrastructure system is formulated, as shown in Figure 10. Bangkok and Kunming are the primary economic hubs of Thailand and Yunnan, respectively. Chiang Mai is the secondary economic hub that locates between these two cities. Chiang Rai and Yunjinghong are defined as gateway cities. Each of these has its own border and port cities, such as Mai Sai, Chiang San, Chiang Khong for Chiang Rai and Kuanlei for Yunjinghong. These figures imply the confrontation of two economic zones: Chiang Rai and Yunjinghong economic zones. Figure 11 shows the Kunming-Bangkok routes (e.g. R3W, Mekong river, R3E) and also the other modes of transports, such as airway and seaway.
According to the model, the channels from Bangkok to Kunming are simplified as 1) Airway, 2) Seaway, 3) Continental link via R3W, 4) Continental link via Mekong
การประชุมสัมมนาเชิงวิชาการประจําป 2549 การจัดการโลจิสติกสและโซอุปทาน คร้ังที่ 6
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river, and 5) Continental link via R3E. Approximated details of the channels are set up as shown in Table 2. Key Performance Indexes of A Logistics System This study suggests four main indexes for selecting proper logistics links: cost, time, reliability of service, and safety of service. Cost refers to net logistics cost (e.g. transportation, tax, logistics service costs, etc.). Time stands for total travel time (e.g. transportation time, idle time, custom processing time, etc.). Reliability of service means ability to delivery on-time. Safety of service refers to chance of damaging or defecting of packages due to transportation. Access to data in the ASEAN region is quite difficult, particularly in the border zones (Banomyong, et al., 2002). According to the nature of data sources and limited assessment, this study measures the data in both quantitative and qualitative ways.
R3
Train TransportBKK-CM
Air TransportCM-KM
R3
Mekong RiverMekong River
BKK-CR/A1
R3
Local HW
A1 Local HW
CM-CR
BKK-CM
Air TransportBKK-KM
Sea Transport
Train TransportHK-KM
R3/R3E
R3W
Bangkok
Kunming
Yunjing
hong
Hongkong
Chiang Rai
Mai Sai
Chiang Khong
Chiang San
Chiang Mai
Kaunlei
Figure 10: A Network Model of Bangkok-Kunming Logistics Infrastructure
Table 2: Examples of Logistics Performance for Each Channel Cost
(Bath/Ton) Time (days)
Reliability of Service*
Safety of Service*
Airway 40000 0.5/1 5 5 Seaway 2000-6000 12-16 4 4 Continental link
R3W n/a n/a 2 3 Mekong River 8000-10000 4-10 3 2 R3E 3000-4000 1-2 4 4
Remark * Subjective Assessment
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For the continental link, variability of cost is relatively high, particularly in the part of border and China sections. The cost typically depends on marketing mechanism and bargaining power (e.g. volume of order and relationships between customer and providers). For example, the cost of Mekong transportation will be high during the dry season. Variability of delivery time is tentatively high too, typically logistics service providers (LSPs) put high contingency time for their customer. Normally variability locates at custom or any logistics service processes. For the Mekong river, time variability is very high during the dry season. Analysis and Results According to the study assessment, the characteristics of each alternative channels are shown in Figure 11. Cost and time are quantified and normalized. For the reliability and safety of service, Eigenvector method is used to determine the relative ranking of alternatives (Saaty, 1990). The higher the value, the better the performance.
Figure 11: Logistics Performance Assessment of Each Alternative Channel
If the characteristics of logistics demand are cost-oriented (e.g. bulk commodities), the Bangkok-R3E-Kunming and Seaway routes give the highest score, respectively, as shown in Table 3. However, if the characteristics of logistics demand is time-oriented (e.g. flower and handicraft), the Airway and Bangkok-R3E-Kunming routes give the highest score, respectively, as shown in Table 4. Table 3: Examples of Logistics Performance for Each Channel: Cost-Oriented
Alternative Logistics Channels Performance Dimensions Air Sea Mekong R3E
Weight, wi
Cost 0.04 0.40 0.16 0.40 0.609 Time 0.58 0.04 0.08 0.29 0.168 Realiability 0.55 0.13 0.06 0.26 0.139 Safety 0.58 0.18 0.05 0.20 0.084 0.247 0.284 0.124 0.345 1.000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6Cost
Time
Realiability
Safety
Air
Sea
Mekong
R3E
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Table 4: Examples of Logistics Performance for Each Channel: Time-Oriented Alternative Logistics Channels Performance
Dimensions Air Sea Mekong R3E Weight, wi
Cost 0.04 0.40 0.16 0.40 0.058 Time 0.58 0.04 0.08 0.29 0.372 Reliability 0.55 0.13 0.06 0.26 0.372 Safety 0.58 0.18 0.05 0.20 0.198 0.538 0.122 0.072 0.267 1.000
Figure 12 and 13 shows examples of stochastic perspectives of the logistics channel analysis. Time and cost variability are included. In terms of cost-oriented, the Bangkok-R3E-Kunming route gains higher score than the others; however, it cannot dominate anyone (Figure 13). In terms of time/quality-oriented, the Airway and Bangkok-R3E-Kunming routes are the first two dominant routes.
Figure 12: Examples of Logistics Performance for Each Channel: Cost-Oriented
Figure 13: Examples of Logistics Performance for Each Channel: Time-Oriented
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Summary This study illustrates the basic information of the Bangkok-Kunming routes. A
network model of the logistics system between these two cities is also formulated. A quantitative methodology, named Analytical Heretical Process (AHP), is used to evaluate the potential of these routes. Deterministic and stochastic examples are also presented. According to the assumptions, the results indicate that the Kunming-Bangkok will play an importance role as a new logistics channel for connecting between the main economic cities of Thailand and Yunnan, China. Once the Kunming-Bangkok expressway project is accomplished, This expressway is expected to be a capstone of logistics breakthrough in this region.
References: Banai-Kashani, R. (1989), “Discrete mode-choice analysis of urban travel demand by
the Analytic Hierarchy Process”, Transportation, Vol. 16, No. 1, March, 1989, Springer Netherlands, 81-96
Banomyong R, Iwata S, & Kumazawa K (2002) Issues in cross-border inter-city freight transport in ASEAN, Thammasat Journal of Business Administration, Special Issue on Supply Chain Challenges in Asia, 19 November 2002, pp. 59-69, ISSN 0125-233X.
Banomyong, R., Sopadang, A., Thiengburanathum, P., Taesiriphet, C., Saichan, K. (2006), “A Study of Logistics System of Thailand-Chinese Trade in the Context of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement: Case Study of Border and Transit Trade.” Progress Report #1.
Berman, M. L. (1998), “Opening the Lancang (Mekong) River in Yunnan: Problems and Prospects for Xishuangbanna,” Master Thesis, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA.
Liberatore, M. (1995). "A decision support approach for transport carrier and mode selection". Journal of Business Logistics,
United Nations (2001), Asian Highway: the Road Networks connecting China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, the Russian Federation and the Korean Peninsula, Policy-level Expert Group Meeting, 10-12 October, Bangkok.
Winston, W.L. (1994), Operations Research: Decision Making, 3rd Edition, Thomson Learning, China
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BURMA
Have the Wa Cornered the Global Tin Trade?By SEAMUS MARTOV| Thursday , February 25 , 201 6 |
2
A solider from the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in Mongma Township of the Wa Special Region, May201 5 . (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy )
A recent paper published in the journal
Resources Policy concludes that a new tin
mining operation located in a corner of
northern Shan State controlled by the
United Wa State Army (UWSA) appears to
be responsible for elevating Burma in just a
few years from being a bit player in the
global tin industry “to the status of the
World’s third largest tin producing
country.”
What the authors call a potential “black
swan event” represents a 4900.00 percent
increase in tin production over a five year period, from 2009 to 2014, according to figures provided
by the UK based International Tin Research Institute (ITRI), a not for profit group with close ties to
the mining industry.
“Tin mining in Myanmar: Production and potential,” published in December and authored by
Oxford University professor Nicholas J. Gardiner and three others, suggests that the massive
increase in tin production from Burma is a development completely unforeseen by commodity
analysts and one that has had significant ramifications for the tin industry worldwide.
According to the paper, the Wa-controlled tin production is centered at the Man Maw mine which is
said to be some 90 km from Panghsang (also known as Pangkham). The authors suggest that the high
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level of tin production at the Man Maw mine will not last long but due to a lack of hard data from the
area it remains far from clear how much tin remains to be mined.
According to a person familiar with Man Maw cited by the paper’s authors, the mine site is about
100km2 with a “number of small mining companies” in operation at the site. Annual production of
tin from Man Maw was estimated to be nearly 30,000 tons in 2014, making it one of the largest tin
mining sites in the world.
“The giant San Rafael mine in Peru was the World’s single biggest tin mine producer, until the
apparent recent rise of the Man Maw mining complex,” the paper says.
The Wa territory has no tin smelting capacity of its own and everything mined in Man Maw appears
to be destined for China which, according to the paper’s authors, in 2014 imported 177,950 tons of
tin ores and concentrates, 97 percent of which came from Burma. Tin is most widely used for solder,
a key component in electronics manufacturing.
The ITRI, which describes itself as being “supported by the world’s most important tin producers
and smelters,” reports that thanks to tin concentrate imports from Wa controlled territory, China
for the first time in 6 years became a net exporter of refined tin in 2014; a development with major
implications for the industry worldwide.
“If the low cost production from Myanmar is maintained this has the potential to re-shape the
industry cost curve, leading to longer-term lower tin prices,” the authors contend, predicting lower
prices could lead to less production in other mining areas where production costs are increasing.
The low cost of tin globally continues to be an issue for mining firms worldwide. A quarterly report
released in July of last year by the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)-listed firm Kasbah Resources
Limited, singled out the rise in tin exports from Burma and tin from UWSA territory in particular, as
one of two major factors behind a fall in global tin prices in 2014.
“The availability of low cost ore and concentrates from Myanmar (particularly the Maw Maw mining
area in the Wa County) and its proximity to the Yunnan Province in China has been problematic for
the tin market,” said the firm, which is focused on developing tin mining concessions in Morocco.
“This rapid growth of tin concentrate imports from Myanmar provided an opportunity for traders
and Chinese tin producers to purchase lower cost and higher grade material to refine to metal in
China, then export that metal to the international market.”
Similarly, the 2014 annual report of the Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC), which bills itself as
the world’s second largest supplier of refined tin, cited the large amounts of tin mined in UWSA
territory as a worrying development.
“While tin demand has remained relatively stable, recent reports on the high artisanal production
from the Wa State in Myanmar is a major concern to the industry,” the report noted.
Past its Peak?
But it is far from clear how much metal there is left to mine. An update released by the ITRI last
June predicted a future decline in tin exports from UWSA territory citing public comments made by
a senior official from the Yunnan Tin Company (YTC) whose firm had recently visited the Man Maw
mine.
“At the ITRI China International Tin Forum in Shanghai, YTC’s General Manager, Zhang Fu,
outlined the company’s belief that Myanmar’s 2014 tin production was a peak, and that resource
and grade depletion at Man Maw will result in a progressive decline in production in the following
years,” the update noted.
Despite this prediction, tin production from Burma actually went up in 2015 compared to the
previous year, according to estimates provided by ITRI in an update released last August. Stefan
Ljubisavljevic, a commodities analyst with the Australian bank Macquarie Securities recently told a
trade publication that in fact he expects tin exports from Burma to increase.
“Due to the unstable political situation in Myanmar’s major tin mining locations, what has been
produced and exported so far is the low hanging fruit of production and with less uncertainty tin
production could continue to rise in the coming years,” Ljubisavljevic told Platts Metals Daily in
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November. His bank estimates that since 2012, Burma’s share of global tin production has grown to
over 10 percent of global production from less than 2 percent.
There are other significant sources of tin in Burma, most notably in Dawei in Tenasserim Division
and at Mawchi in Karenni State. The latter was once one of the biggest tin mining areas in the world
during colonial times, but neither source appears to be producing at levels anywhere near what is
being produced in UWSA territory.
The fact that the world’s tin prices are being affected in part by the policies set by a reclusive group
of ex-communist rebels in a remote corner of northern Shan State has so far received little
attention, apparently even among those following the Burmese mining sector.
There was no mention of the Man Maw areas significant contribution to the global tin trade in the
recently released Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) report for Burma, which
included other significant tin mining operations in the rest of the country, in an otherwise detailed
overview of the country’s mining industry.
Wa Control
The UWSA was formed in 1989 following the dramatic implosion of the Communist Party of Burma
(CPB), which was then headquartered in Panghsang. As the CPB’s ageing leadership fled to China,
Burma’s then biggest armed group split several ways with a faction that eventually became the
UWSA emerging as the biggest grouping that quickly reached a ceasefire with the military regime.
The senior leadership of the UWSA, many of whom were previously mid-ranking officers in the
communist party who took part in a rebellion against the CPB’s almost exclusively Burman
leadership, maintain good relations with China, ties that were formed when Beijing was strongly
backing the CPB in its armed struggle against Burma’s leader Ne Win.
Chinese is taught in UWSA run schools and is spoken widely throughout the UWSA territory which
is officially called Shan State Special Region No 2, but which the UWSA often refers to as Wa State.
The significant amounts of tin being mined and exported from UWSA territory to China adds an
extra dimension to the UWSA’s relationship with the Chinese government, who consider the
continued supply of tin and other minerals known as rare earths used in electronics, to be of major
importance to the country’s economy.
The Wa, who are recognized as a distinct ethnic group by both the Burmese and Chinese
governments, were known historically for their headhunting prowess. At the time of Burma’s
independence, few would have predicted that the Wa, most of whom resided in remote areas largely
ungoverned by colonial authorities, would go on to form Burma’s strongest ethnic armed group.
While it remains unclear how much tin remains to be found in the Wa hills, any interruption to the
UWSA’s 26 year-long ceasefire with the central government would likely affect mining and thus
impact global tin prices overall. The UWSA’s well-equipped ranks are estimated by some to be
between 20,000 to 25,000 strong, bigger than the standing armies of several European nations.
Its hefty army helps maintain a status quo in which the central government has little if any authority
over a large swath of UWSA territory running along the Chinese border and a smaller area along the
Thai border that the UWSA took control of in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
A series of indictments filed by US authorities over the years against the UWSA leadership,
including Chairman Bao Youxiang, for their alleged involvement in the global drug trade have
helped keep the Wa territory largely cut off from western visitors. The group has long denied these
claims which it says are part of a smear campaign.
“We, the UWSA, are wholeheartedly engaged in the fight against drug-dealing,” the group’s
spokesperson, Aung Myint, told The Irrawaddy in a 2013 interview. “For seven years since 2005,
there have been no poppy fields and no poppy plants in our region. This has finished. That’s why the
world should recognize us.”
The UWSA has also been identified as a major player in the jade trade in a series of reports issued by
Global Witness last year. Global Witness alleges that Wei Hsueh Kang, often described as the
UWSA’s banker, and his associates “have used a web of opaque company structures to build, and
disguise, a jade empire.”
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Wei Hsueh Kang, who has rarely been seen in public since the US government put a $US2 million
dollar bounty on his head, is considered to retain influence in the group, particularly within the
171st Brigade, which controls the UWSA’s territory along the Thai border.
Though they officially remain in a ceasefire, the UWSA’s relationship with the central government
has been strained for some time. The UWSA has been wary of the army’s attempts to drive their
allies the Shan State Army-North from their positions near Wa territory which have served as a
buffer between them and the government.
The UWSA were notably absent from the signing ceremony for the nationwide ceasefire agreement
(NCA) last October, hosted by President Thein Sein in Naypyidaw. The group instead hosted a
summit in November of its own that included other non NCA signatories, including the Kachin
Independence Organization, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army, just before
the election.
That meeting and a similar summit held in Panghsang in May were seen by many as something of a
coming out party for the UWSA, who for the most part had avoided high profile gatherings of ethnic
armed groups.
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