What has happened to Foresight in the UK?

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight in the UK 1994-2014

Impacts and Insights.

Ian Miles

Research Laboratory for Economics of Innovation

Higher School of Economics - National Research University

Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

Higher School of Economics Moscow 2014

www.hse.ru

HSE Annual Conference on Foresight and STI Policy

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Overview

• The Current Context

• The UK Foresight Programme – brief history

• Uses of results in STI policy

• Horizon Scanning

• Foresight beyond the Foresight Programme

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Economic Crisis and Foresight

....

Abstract

Conclusions

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight in Hindsight

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Pre

Foresight Technology

Foresight –

Foresight First

CycleForesight

Second

Cycle Foresight Third Cycle ????

Office of S&T (1992-2006) of Science & Innovation (2006-7)

Located: till 1995 Cabinet Office

Department of Trade and Industry till 2006

Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills till 2007..

Office of

Chief

Scientist

D.E.S.

Science

Office

Gvnmnt. Office for Science.

Located: Department of

Business, Innovation & Skills

Party in Power: Coalition:

Conservative (Major) Labour (Blair to 2007, then Brown) Con-Dem

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Early Foresight

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Pre

Foresight Technology

Foresight –

Foresight First

Cycle

Office of S&T (1992-2006)

Located: till 1995 Cabinet Office

Department of Trade and Industry.

Office of

Chief

Scientist

D.E.S.

Science

Office

Party in Power:

Conservative (Major) Labour (Blair)

•Informing major decisions about

R&D funding.

•Sectoral/Technological panels with

some common methodology and

orientation.

•Substantial impacts on priorities.

•But also: “wiring up of national

innovation system”.

•Much learning embedded into major

ministries and senior policymaking

• Widely acclaimed.

"We consider Foresight to be a

long overdue attempt to address

the UK's failure to turn excellence

in basic research into industrial

success. We want to make sure

that its momentum is not lost".

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight, Interrupted

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Foresight

Second

Cycle

Office of S&T (1992-2006)

Located: Department of

Trade and Industry..

Party in Power: Coalition:

Conservative (Major) Labour (Blair to 2007, then Brown) Con-Dem

•Intended to carry on

Foresight mission – but

with new staffing.

•Numerous panels and

WGs, with little

common methodology

•Hope of using new

web-based media.

•Quality of panel work

challenged.

•Topics “lacked

ownership” in DTI

•Programme reviewed,

and found to be

mismatched to the

Foresight mission.

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight Rebooted – the Third Cycle

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Foresight Third Cycle ????

Office of S&T (1992-2006) of Science & Innovation (2006-7)

Located: Department of Trade and Industry till 2006

Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills till 2007..

Gvnmnt. Office for Science.

Located: Department of

Business, Innovation & Skills

Party in Power: Coalition:

Conservative (Major) Labour (Blair to 2007, then Brown) Con-Dem

•Moved away from wide-spectrum

Foresight, to more Focused Foresight

projects directed at specific themes

•Aimed for impact by enlisting senior

policymakers into leading roles

• A few cases of limited impact but

many projects highly influential.

•Location subject to wider politics.

2004 OST Horizon

Scanning Centre

in Foresight Unit

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Projects (typically c2 years)

• Cognitive Systems2003•Cyber trust and crime prevention

•Exploiting the electromagnetic spectrum

•Future flooding2004

• Drugs futures 20252005• Infectious diseases

• Intelligent infrastructure futures

2006

• Reducing obesity 2007

• Mental capital & wellbeing2008

• Land use futures2010• Migration & global env. change

• International dimensions of climate change

• Future of food and farming2011

• Future of computer trading in financial markets

2012• Future of

manufacturing2013

• Current projects on Cities and Ageing

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Impacts?

Each project produced a one-year

review of uptake; major projects

success documented more broadly

– cf. Also Newsletters

....

Yes, and beyond UK

and in STI and more

widely

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Third Cycle Foresight – beyond projects

Policy Future

projects:

shorter studies

of hot policy

topics, e.g.

Disaster

preparedness

Horizon

Scanning

2004 on

Website at

foresight.gov.uk, 2008

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

HSC within Foresight (2009)

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight website

• The website has moved locations

– www.foresight.gov.uk (1990s – 2010)

– www.bis.gov.uk/foresight (2010-13)

– www.gov.uk/government/collections/foresight-projects (2014)

• The content has changed

– Now two projects are running, on same scale as previous ones (but less systematically)

– Horizon Scanning as a separate stream in GO-Science, with separate leadership.

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight.gov.uk website

January 2010 August 2010

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight at BIS website

January 2011 February 2012

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight at BIS website 2

April 2013 March 2014

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight website at gov.uk

March 2014 October 2014

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight: late 2014

https://www.gov.uk/government/

organisations/government-

office-for-science

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Affirmation

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/speech-by-

david-willetts-to-the-uk-science-park-association

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight and Oversight – 1 (2006)

• Interviews with stakeholders

• examined 5 completed

projects plus ongoing ones

• Picture mixed, with one

project having major problems

of traction (change in political

leadership, controversy of

topic), but most having

considerable policy impact

• Impact broader than STI

alone, but substantial

influence on these areas.

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight and Oversight – 2 (2007)

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmselect/cmpubadm/123

/123i.pdf

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight and Oversight – 3 (2014)

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Scanning the Horizon?

http://www.parliament.uk/business

/committees/committees-a-

z/commons-select/science-and-

technology-

committee/news/140504-ghs-

report-published/

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight and/or Horizon Scanning

• The two seem to be separated (again)

• S&T Foresight in GO-Science – but projects are driven by social agenda (cities, ageing)

– Meanwhile applied R&D funding informed by other means

• HS in Cabinet Office for broad strategy

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Foresight in Hindsight - 2

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Pre

Foresight

Foresight First

Cycle

2nd

CycleForesight Third Cycle ????

Strategy Unit

PIUCabinet

Office

Horizon Scanning

DEFRA HS from

2002

- & some other

Gvt. departments

Horizon Scanning

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Horizon Scanning 2014 – Cabinet Office and GO-Science Response to

critique

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Active Teamworkhttps://www.gov.uk/government/groups/horizon-scanning-programme-team

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Tools in the Policy Process

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Toolkit 2014 (beta version)

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Meanwhile: Applied R&D Funding

Collaborative Research and Development,

SBRI (the Small Business Research Initiative),

Knowledge Transfer Partnerships,

Launchpad competitions

and overseas missions.

Innovation Platforms - an approach to innovation which harnesses the

activities government departments use to address societal challenges

to stimulate innovative solutions within UK businesses.

From 2010 transferred from Regional Development Agencies - Grant

for Research & Development (now branded as Smart); Innovation

Vouchers

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Innovate (TSB) - 2012

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Catapult CentresCore funding, Business funding, Joint Projects

2015:

“Physical centres for innovation that connect businesses with the UK’s research

and academic communities.” https://www.catapult.org.uk/home

Solihull Guy's Hospital, Glasgow Harwell Science &

London Innovation Campus

King's Cross, Borough Milton Keynes

London

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

Conclusions• Foresight Programme has had a major impact on

UK STI

• In C21st impact on cross-governmental coordination around certain key areas, and some impact on broader STI communities in these areas, and on other countries and IGOs

• Recurrent confusion and conflict around role of separate Horizon Scanning activity

• “Evidence-based policy” is still asserted - in principle affirming need for such expertise.

© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2014

END OF PRESENTATION