Big data panel slides

2

MediaMedia

ButtonButton

Button:

1. Sign Up

2. Learn More

3. Join Us Now

4. Sign Up Now

Button:

1. Sign Up

2. Learn More

3. Join Us Now

4. Sign Up Now

Variations:Variations:

Splash page experimentSplash page experiment

Media:

1. Get Involved Image

2. Family Image

3. Change Image

4. Barack’s Video

5. Springfield Video

6. Sam’s Video

Media:

1. Get Involved Image

2. Family Image

3. Change Image

4. Barack’s Video

5. Springfield Video

6. Sam’s Video

Button: “Sign Up”Button: “Sign Up”

Button: “Learn More”Button: “Learn More”

Button: “Join Us Now”Button: “Join Us Now”

Button: “Sign Up Now”Button: “Sign Up Now”

Button:

1. Sign Up

2. Learn More

3. Join Us Now

4. Sign Up Now

Button:

1. Sign Up

2. Learn More

3. Join Us Now

4. Sign Up Now

Variations:Variations:

Splash page experimentSplash page experiment

Media:

1. Get Involved Image

2. Family Image

3. Change Image

4. Barack’s Video

5. Springfield Video

6. Sam’s Video

Media:

1. Get Involved Image

2. Family Image

3. Change Image

4. Barack’s Video

5. Springfield Video

6. Sam’s Video

Media: “Get Involved”Media: “Get Involved”

Media: “Family”Media: “Family”

Media: “Change”Media: “Change”

Media: “Barack’s Video”Media: “Barack’s Video”

Media: “Springfield Video”Media: “Springfield Video”

Media: “Sam’s Video”Media: “Sam’s Video”

Button:

1. Sign Up

2. Learn More

3. Join Us Now

4. Sign Up Now

Button:

1. Sign Up

2. Learn More

3. Join Us Now

4. Sign Up Now

Variations:Variations:

Splash page experimentSplash page experiment

Media:

1. Get Involved Image

2. Family Image

3. Change Image

4. Barack’s Video

5. Springfield Video

6. Sam’s Video

Media:

1. Get Involved Image

2. Family Image

3. Change Image

4. Barack’s Video

5. Springfield Video

6. Sam’s Video

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results

Email Subscriptions

Volunteers Amount Raised

Original: 7,120,000 712,000 $143,000,000

+40.6% +2,880,000 +288,000 +$57,000,000

New: 10,000,000 1,000,000 $200,000,000

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results

Email Subscriptions

Volunteers Amount Raised

Original: 7,120,000 712,000 $143,000,000

+40.6% +2,880,000 +288,000 +$57,000,000

New: 10,000,000 1,000,000 $200,000,000

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results

Email Subscriptions

Volunteers Amount Raised

Original: 7,120,000 712,000 $143,000,000

+40.6% +2,880,000 +288,000 +$57,000,000

New: 10,000,000 1,000,000 $200,000,000

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results

Follow me:

Follow me:@dsiroker

Email me:Email me:

dan@optimizely.com

26

Modeling is using the data you have about a voter to make an informed judgment about:

- whether they will vote- who they will vote for- what issues affect their vote- any other question you think has predictable (reproducible) behaviors

?80%likelihood of

voting for Obama

humans make models all the time, as we collect data & make informed judgments:

50 years old

white

56% 59% 63% 68% 85% 89% 94%% GOP

SURVEY GOP=94% (94/100)

STATEWIDE GOP~94% (94,000/100,000)

- knowledge management- master data management- data harmonization- voter relationship management

OBAMA CAMPAIGN’S PROJECT NARWHAL

William Alexander Lundry, Registered Republican

1. Data providers2. Targeted Display Ads3. Facebook Apps4. Volunteered Association

Slowly lowering the wall between online & offline data

RNCData Trust

ThemisUnited In Purpose

The Conservative Data Ecosystem

33

Big Political Data for the masses

Periodic to real time

Partisan Affiliation

Likelihood to vote

Top Issue

Likelihood to volunteer

Likelihood to unsubscribe

Best Channel for Giving

Receptiveness to treatment

Responds to DM

39

The world of survey research is changing

rapidly.

The average phone survey

response rate is

around 20% and

declining.

27% of US households are cell only.

(CDC)

46% of American adults

own a smartphone.

Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991

Online research tools are emerging.

Whether online works as a tool

depends on what we want to measure.

As it gets harder to ask...

What if we get better about listening?

Sentiment? I can go to twittersentiment.appspo

t.comand get an analysis.

Does “Who said it - Newt or

Buzz Lightyear?”

really count as a positive

tweet?

“Gingrich had 6 percent more activity than the other candidates

and the positive sentiment on him related to Super Tuesday is at 84 percent. Sentiment in general online conversation about him is only at 45

percent. So it seems his folks are working the online world hard.”

-From POLITICO “Playbook,” Super Tuesday (March 6 2012), quoting an email from a Washington-based

public affairs consultant

Photo: Marc Grob for Time

Survey Sentiment Analysis

• Landline bias

• Contained universe

• Concrete results

• “Snapshot” in time

• Message testing

• Online/activist bias

• Variable universe

• Subject to interpretation

• Real-time, evolving

• Identify new trends