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MediaMedia
ButtonButton
Button:
1. Sign Up
2. Learn More
3. Join Us Now
4. Sign Up Now
Button:
1. Sign Up
2. Learn More
3. Join Us Now
4. Sign Up Now
Variations:Variations:
Splash page experimentSplash page experiment
Media:
1. Get Involved Image
2. Family Image
3. Change Image
4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video
Media:
1. Get Involved Image
2. Family Image
3. Change Image
4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video
Button: “Sign Up”Button: “Sign Up”
Button: “Learn More”Button: “Learn More”
Button: “Join Us Now”Button: “Join Us Now”
Button: “Sign Up Now”Button: “Sign Up Now”
Button:
1. Sign Up
2. Learn More
3. Join Us Now
4. Sign Up Now
Button:
1. Sign Up
2. Learn More
3. Join Us Now
4. Sign Up Now
Variations:Variations:
Splash page experimentSplash page experiment
Media:
1. Get Involved Image
2. Family Image
3. Change Image
4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video
Media:
1. Get Involved Image
2. Family Image
3. Change Image
4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video
Media: “Get Involved”Media: “Get Involved”
Media: “Family”Media: “Family”
Media: “Change”Media: “Change”
Media: “Barack’s Video”Media: “Barack’s Video”
Media: “Springfield Video”Media: “Springfield Video”
Media: “Sam’s Video”Media: “Sam’s Video”
Button:
1. Sign Up
2. Learn More
3. Join Us Now
4. Sign Up Now
Button:
1. Sign Up
2. Learn More
3. Join Us Now
4. Sign Up Now
Variations:Variations:
Splash page experimentSplash page experiment
Media:
1. Get Involved Image
2. Family Image
3. Change Image
4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video
Media:
1. Get Involved Image
2. Family Image
3. Change Image
4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
Email Subscriptions
Volunteers Amount Raised
Original: 7,120,000 712,000 $143,000,000
+40.6% +2,880,000 +288,000 +$57,000,000
New: 10,000,000 1,000,000 $200,000,000
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
Email Subscriptions
Volunteers Amount Raised
Original: 7,120,000 712,000 $143,000,000
+40.6% +2,880,000 +288,000 +$57,000,000
New: 10,000,000 1,000,000 $200,000,000
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
Email Subscriptions
Volunteers Amount Raised
Original: 7,120,000 712,000 $143,000,000
+40.6% +2,880,000 +288,000 +$57,000,000
New: 10,000,000 1,000,000 $200,000,000
Splash page experiment results
Splash page experiment results
Follow me:
Follow me:@dsiroker
Email me:Email me:
26
Modeling is using the data you have about a voter to make an informed judgment about:
- whether they will vote- who they will vote for- what issues affect their vote- any other question you think has predictable (reproducible) behaviors
?80%likelihood of
voting for Obama
humans make models all the time, as we collect data & make informed judgments:
50 years old
white
56% 59% 63% 68% 85% 89% 94%% GOP
SURVEY GOP=94% (94/100)
STATEWIDE GOP~94% (94,000/100,000)
- knowledge management- master data management- data harmonization- voter relationship management
OBAMA CAMPAIGN’S PROJECT NARWHAL
William Alexander Lundry, Registered Republican
1. Data providers2. Targeted Display Ads3. Facebook Apps4. Volunteered Association
Slowly lowering the wall between online & offline data
RNCData Trust
ThemisUnited In Purpose
The Conservative Data Ecosystem
33
Big Political Data for the masses
Periodic to real time
Partisan Affiliation
Likelihood to vote
Top Issue
Likelihood to volunteer
Likelihood to unsubscribe
Best Channel for Giving
Receptiveness to treatment
Responds to DM
39
The world of survey research is changing
rapidly.
The average phone survey
response rate is
around 20% and
declining.
27% of US households are cell only.
(CDC)
46% of American adults
own a smartphone.
Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991
Online research tools are emerging.
Whether online works as a tool
depends on what we want to measure.
As it gets harder to ask...
What if we get better about listening?
Sentiment? I can go to twittersentiment.appspo
t.comand get an analysis.
Does “Who said it - Newt or
Buzz Lightyear?”
really count as a positive
tweet?
“Gingrich had 6 percent more activity than the other candidates
and the positive sentiment on him related to Super Tuesday is at 84 percent. Sentiment in general online conversation about him is only at 45
percent. So it seems his folks are working the online world hard.”
-From POLITICO “Playbook,” Super Tuesday (March 6 2012), quoting an email from a Washington-based
public affairs consultant
Photo: Marc Grob for Time
Survey Sentiment Analysis
• Landline bias
• Contained universe
• Concrete results
• “Snapshot” in time
• Message testing
• Online/activist bias
• Variable universe
• Subject to interpretation
• Real-time, evolving
• Identify new trends
