China in 2050

Prepared byStephen E. Brimmersebrimmer@aol.com

 November 2008

The Rise of China"China is poised to

have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country"

– National Intelligence Council

World’s second largest economy

Leading military powerLargest importer of natural

resources

“Giant with feet of clay” - Carol Lee Hamrin

A low-trust authoritarian culture

A weak philanthropic tradition

Pervasive moral corrosion

Widespread social tensions

Spiritual/ideological contention Daniel 2: 31-45

Social Capital Deficit

Source: International Futures Model

What is Social Capital?A “cultural component of modern

societies”An “informal norm that promotes

cooperation” among groupsA contributor to “efficient

functioning of modern economies”A catalyst for trust, reciprocity, and

social networkingSource: Fukuyama. Social Capital and Civil Society. October

1999.

Dr. Francis Fukuyama

Johns Hopkins University

Forecast Baseline

China compared to World

China compared to India

Economic ForecastEconomic Forecast

Forecast BaselineWorld Leadership ForecastWorld Leadership Forecast

Forecast Baseline

China compared to World

China compared to India

Governance ForecastGovernance Forecast

Forecast Scenarios

Markets first – presumes globalization, rapid technological innovation and economic growth

Security first – economic disparities and environmental pressures generate conflict

Policy first – governments in-adequately address environ-mental and social issues

Sustainability first –a new paradigm emerges with transforming societal values

World ScenariosWorld Scenarios

Forecast ScenariosWorld Scenarios GraphWorld Scenarios Graph

Forecast ScenariosGovernance Improvement Governance Improvement

ScenarioScenario

Forecast ScenariosGovernance Improvement Governance Improvement

ScenarioScenario

Forecast ScenariosAdditional Additional benefits of benefits of Governance Governance Improvement Improvement ScenarioScenario

Conclusion“Can China maintain social stability in the face of what appear to be unprecedented levels of rural-to-urban migration?

...And if China falters, what effect will its instability have on the rest of the world.?”

• How can organizations identify trends and emerging issues on their horizon that will likely shape their strategy?

• How do strategic leadership teams combine anticipatory management with traditional management processes?

• How can leaders think about the future, change and uncertainties in a way that refocuses organizational strategy?

Strategic foresight attempts to answer questions such as:

To learn more about the benefits strategic foresight may provide you and your

organization, contact:

Steve BrimmerSteve Brimmersebrimmer@aol.com