Cooperation, conflict and complexity; India’s hydro-hegemony in South Asia and challenges and...

Cooperation, conflict and complexity;India’s hydro-hegemony in South Asia and challenges and opportunities for water interactions

Paula HanaszPhD candidateAustralian National UniversityCrawford School of Public Policy

Agenda

2

Agenda

• Why water in South Asia?

2

Agenda

• Why water in South Asia?• How does conflict and cooperation

manifest in water interactions?

2

Agenda

• Why water in South Asia?• How does conflict and cooperation

manifest in water interactions?• What is complexity?

2

Agenda

• Why water in South Asia?• How does conflict and cooperation

manifest in water interactions?• What is complexity?• Who does India’s hydro-hegemony affect?

2

Agenda

• Why water in South Asia?• How does conflict and cooperation

manifest in water interactions?• What is complexity?• Who does India’s hydro-hegemony affect?• Where do the challenges and opportunities

lie?

2

Water in South Asia

3

Water in South Asia

• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails

3

Water in South Asia

• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails• India is perceived as a water

bully

3

Water in South Asia

• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails• India is perceived as a water

bully• Lack of meaningful

multilateralism

3

Conflict & cooperation

4

Conflict & cooperation

4

Water wars are inevitable!

Conflict & cooperation

4

Water wars are inevitable!

Bah humbug! Water is a vector

for peace!

Conflict & cooperation

4

• Cooperation ≠ absence of conflict

Water wars are inevitable!

Bah humbug! Water is a vector

for peace!

Conflict & cooperation

4

• Cooperation ≠ absence of conflict• ‘water interactions’ better conveys

complexity

Water wars are inevitable!

Bah humbug! Water is a vector

for peace!

Complexity

5

Complexity

• Complex ≠ complicated

5

India’s hydro-hegemony

6

India’s hydro-hegemony

Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership

6

India’s hydro-hegemony

Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunities

6

India’s hydro-hegemony

Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes

6

India’s hydro-hegemony

Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomesIndia + Pakistan = securitisation of water

6

India’s hydro-hegemony

Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomesIndia + Pakistan = securitisation of waterIndia + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest

6

India’s hydro-hegemony

Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomesIndia + Pakistan = securitisation of waterIndia + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest--------------------------------------------------------

6

India’s hydro-hegemony

Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomesIndia + Pakistan = securitisation of waterIndia + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest--------------------------------------------------------GRAND TOTAL = neutral interactions

6

India’s hydro-hegemony

Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ LeadershipIndia + Nepal = missed opportunitiesIndia + Bhutan = positive sum outcomesIndia + Pakistan = securitisation of waterIndia + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest--------------------------------------------------------GRAND TOTAL = neutral interactions ≠ water wars

6

Challenges & opportunities

7

Challenges & opportunities

• Fears of ‘water wars’

7

Challenges & opportunities

• Fears of ‘water wars’• False dichotomy of

conflict/cooperation

7

Challenges & opportunities

• Fears of ‘water wars’• False dichotomy of

conflict/cooperation

• Nuanced understanding of water interactions

7

Challenges & opportunities

• Fears of ‘water wars’• False dichotomy of

conflict/cooperation

• Nuanced understanding of water interactions

• Indian leadership of multilateral transboundary water management

7

Paula.Hanasz@anu.edu.au@paulahanasz

8

Is India a hydro-hegemon?

9

Relative size

Political/economic/military power

Riparian position

Potential for water resource exploitation

Pillars of Hydro Hegemony

Power• Political• Economic• Military

Riparian position

Potential for water

resource exploitation

What are water interactions?

10

Cooperation intensity

Con

flict

inte

nsity

Low

Low

High

High

Confrontation of the issue

Ad hoc Technical Risk averting Risk-taking cooperation

Violised

Securitised/Opportunitised

Politicised

Non-politicised

TWINS amended from N. Mirumachi and J.A. Allan, 2007, ‘Revisiting Transboundary Water Governance: Power, Conflict, Cooperation and the Political Economy’ and M. Zeitoun and N. Mirumachi, 2008, ‘Transboundary water interaction 1: reconsidering conflict and cooperation’

Positive interactions

Negative interactions

Neutral interactions

Case study: India-Nepal TWINS

11

Cooperation intensity

Con

flict

inte

nsity

Low

Low

High

High

Confrontation of the issue

Ad hoc Technical Risk averting Risk-taking cooperation

Violised

Securitised/Opportunitised

Politicised

Non-politicised Positive interactions

Negative interactions

Neutral interactions1920

1950

’50s‘60s

1990

1996

2008