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We held the Ipsos MORI End of Year Review and Christmas drinks on 12 December 2013, where we looked back over the year in politics, business and society. It included the first release of key findings from our major new international study comparing Britain with 19 other countries, on everything from trust in government, our changing relationship with brands, social media use, to the colour of our eyes! We were delighted to be joined on our panel by Dr Stella Creasy MP, Shadow Minister for Business, Innovation and Skills, and Matthew Parris and David Aaronovitch, of The Times.
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#ipsosmorilive
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
What have we learnt in
?
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
1.
People are very wrong
about the world…
#ipsosmorilive
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Out of every 100 people in Britain, about how many do you think are:
We have a very odd view of our population...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Census 2011, NOMIS; 2011 Census, Population and Household Estimates for England and Wales
(July 2012) ONS; Families and Households, 2012 (November 2012) ONS..
59
16
11 8
5 3
34 36
30
22 24
28
Actual Mean estimate
Christian Aged 65+ Black/Asian Unemployed Muslim Single parents
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What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are
immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)?
...but there is also huge over-estimation of scale
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England
and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.
31
13
Mean estimate
Actual
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Out of every £100 spent from the welfare budget, can you tell me how much of that is claimed
fraudulently (i.e. people who dishonestly claim more benefits than they are entitled to)?
Biggest misperception on benefit fraud...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
Mean estimate
£24 Actual
70p
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; National Statistics fraud and error in the benefit system: preliminary 2012/13
estimates (Great Britain) first release, (June 2013) DWP.
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“Emotional
innumeracy”
Reflects concerns,
not facts
&
Motivated reasoning:
“accuracy goals” vs
“directional goals”
We learnt a new phrase: emotional innumeracy…
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2.
People aren’t great at
predictions either…
#ipsosmorilive
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Half expected 2013 to be better weather-wise, were they right?
“The weather in the UK will be better than in 2012”
50%
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Well done to the half of you that had faith
“Andy Murray will win Wimbledon”
49%
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3.
The next election
remains very difficult
to forecast
#ipsosmorilive
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Ed Miliband has shifted debate into the right area for
him…
There are different ideas about how best to improve people’s financial
situation. Which one of the following would you most prefer government to do
28%
66%
Cut income tax
Take action to reducethe cost of household
bills (such as fuel,mortgages or energy
bills)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
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How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Labour ends the year ahead but ….
Base: c. 500-600 British adults certain to vote each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13
Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat UKIP
38%
8%
32%
8%
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4.
We have all been
surprised by the pace
of economic growth
#ipsosmorilive
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We were pessimistic at the beginning of the year…
“The UK will fall back into recession”
61%
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But economic optimism has risen throughout 2013
Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th November 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
42%
27%
27%
4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Improve
Stay the same
November 2013
EOI = +15
Get worse
Don’t know
% Improve
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But few feel we are benefiting from it…..
Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th November 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
3%
11%
36%
48%
1%
Don’t know A great deal
A fair amount
Not very much
None at all
As you may know,
according to official
statistics the UK
economy has grown by
about 1.5% compared
to the same time last
year. What impact, if
any, do you feel this
growth in the economy
has had on you and
your family’s standard
of living
so far?
14%
84%
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Do you think you and your family would be better off under a Conservative
government or a Labour government, or do you think it would make no difference?
The living standards debate is yet to be won
Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th November 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
22%
52%
23%
Labour government
Conservative government
Make no difference
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…it is clear where the 2015 battle lines will lie
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
36%
23%
28%
24%
31%
27%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
Conservatives Labour LibDems UKIP
Grow the economy
Reduce you and your family’s cost
of living
Ensure that you and your family benefits
from a growing economy
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5.
The young are the
most pessimistic
#ipsosmorilive
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All data points represent > 200 responses
Source: British Social Attitudes
“Among which group would you place yourself … high income, middle
income or low income?”
Who feels poor?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)
% Low income
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6.
Eric Pickles was
vindicated…
#ipsosmorilive
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On balance, do you think services provided by your local council have got better or
worse over the last 12 months, or do you think they have stayed the same?
Most of the public hasn’t seen much change in their
council’s services
Base: 1,007 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain, August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
14%
28% 56%
2%
Stay the same Got worse
Got better Don’t know Net better
GB -14
London -7
South -11
Midlands -8
North -27
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Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Hackney Council
runs things?
Formerly loony councils now pretty good!
Base: Hackney Residents Survey All respondents (1,016). Fieldwork dates 5 January – 6 March 2013; Inner LB Residents Survey (1,153, 16+,
face to face ). Fieldwork dates 18 April - 28 June 2011; 2011 Ipsos MORI National Capibus, (875, 15+ face to face). Fieldwork October 2011. Source: Ipsos MORI
23
53
74
0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% s
atisfied w
ith c
ouncil
Year of survey
% of residents satisfied with Hackney Council
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Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five years, or has it stayed
the same?
Nationally as many services improving as deteriorating
Base: 1,031 Source: BBC October 2013
27
15
11
13
11
8
14
8
8
9
7
5
4
4
21
18
18
16
16
20
11
13
12
11
12
10
7
7
3
6
9
14
11
14
9
4
11
9
9
10
15
10
18
3
6
6
14
12
16
8
3
8
8
7
11
13
12
49
2
Recycling collection
Parks and open spaces
GPs surgeries
Refuse collection
Hospitals
Schools and colleges
Leisure centres
Bus service
Street lighting
Libraries
Street cleaning
The police
Care for the elderly
Road maintenance
Meals-on-wheels
Got much better Got a little better Got a little worse Got much worse
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7.
Mrs Thatcher
was vindicated…
#ipsosmorilive
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No such thing as society?
Base: c. 500 GB adults 18+ each statement, April 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI April 2013
8%
8%
6%
26%
48%
4%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree
Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
“There is no such thing as society.”
30%
33%
10%
12%
13%
3%
Long excerpt starting from: “We've been through a
period where too many people have been given to
understand that if they have a problem, it's the
government's job to cope with it….They're casting their
problem on society. And there is no such thing as
society... People have got the entitlements too much in
mind, without the obligations.”
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So as we grow again, how should we measure success?
Our largest ever global study says…..
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I measure my success by the things I own
We (say we) are among the least materialistic in the world
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 2013 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
71%
58% 57% 48% 45%
39% 34% 34% 33% 32% 29% 28% 27% 24% 22% 22% 21% 20%
16% 15% 7%
26%
37% 42%
44% 52%
54% 61% 63% 64% 61% 65% 67% 69%
70% 70%
73% 72% 75% 79% 81%
89%
Agree Disagree DK
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I feel under a lot of pressure to be successful and make money
Though we do feel some pressure – not as much as in
rising nations
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 2013 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
68% 66% 66% 60%
53% 52% 49% 49% 46% 46% 44% 42% 40% 40% 39% 36% 36% 33% 29% 28% 26%
30% 31% 26% 34% 45% 46%
47% 47% 49% 49%
47% 50% 55% 55% 55% 57% 60% 64%
64% 70% 70%
Agree Disagree DK
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I would like Britain to be the way it used to be
We are still nostalgic for the way Britain used to be
Base (2013): 1,000 adults, online, 3-17 September 2013. (1997-2008) C; 1,00 0 adults Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
10 12 13 6 6
40 36 31
22 27
0 0
31 25
26
40 32
0 0
15 11 20 21 21
0 0
% Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree % Tend to agree % Strongly agree 53%
33%
1997 1999 2002 2008 2013
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The world today is changing too fast
But are we struggling with the pace of change?
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 2013 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
93% 93% 86% 84% 84% 84%
80% 77% 76% 76% 75% 75% 74% 74% 72% 71% 70% 70% 68% 62%
54%
6% 6%
9% 12% 14% 11% 16% 19% 19% 20% 22% 22% 21% 21% 24% 23% 24% 24% 25%
31% 41%
Agree Disagree DK
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I wish I could slow down the pace of my life
But half don’t want things to slow down
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 2013 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
73% 72% 71%
62% 62% 62% 61% 59% 55%
51% 50% 50% 49% 49% 49% 48% 46% 46% 45% 43% 42%
24% 24% 23% 36% 33% 35%
31% 34% 39% 42% 42% 44% 43% 44%
39% 44% 50% 49% 52% 50% 51%
Agree Disagree DK
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I wish I could slow down the pace of my life
Though maybe it is getting too much for some?
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 2013 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
73% 72% 71%
62% 62% 62% 61% 59% 55%
51% 50% 50% 49% 49% 49% 48% 46% 46% 45% 43% 42%
24% 24% 23% 36% 33% 35%
31% 34% 39% 42% 42% 44% 43% 44%
39% 44% 50% 49% 52% 50% 51%
Agree Disagree DK
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Optimism for the future?
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Looking ahead to the next 12 months, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the
following?
What about 2014? Personal optimism – national pessimism
Base: 1,000 GB adults, online, 3-17 September 2013 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
16
5
3
2
45
34
23
14
24
35
26
28
9
17
33
38
4
6
13
17
2
2
2
2
You and your family
The city/town village whereyou live
Great Britain
The world in general
Very optimistic Fairly optimistic
Neither optimistic nor pessimistic Fairly pessimistic
Very pessimistic Don't know
61%
39%
26%
16%
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Looking ahead to the next 12 months, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the
following?
What about 2014? Personal optimism – national pessimism
Base: 1,000 GB adults, online, 3-17 September 2013 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
16
5
3
2
45
34
23
14
24
35
26
28
9
17
33
38
4
6
13
17
2
2
2
2
You and your family
The city/town village whereyou live
Great Britain
The world in general
Very optimistic Fairly optimistic
Neither optimistic nor pessimistic Fairly pessimistic
Very pessimistic Don't know
61%
39%
26%
16%
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And what impact, if any, do you think the growth in the economy will have on
you and your family’s standard of living over the next 12 months?
Few expect to feel impact of growth
Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th- 11th November 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
4%
15%
44%
33%
3%
A great deal
A fair amount
Not very much
None at all
Don’t know
77%
19%
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Looking ahead to the next 12 months, are you optimistic or pessimistic about
the following?
But least we’re not as miserable as the French…
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 201 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
53% 47% 47% 46% 45% 41% 39%
35% 34% 32% 29% 28% 28% 28% 25% 23% 21% 19% 12% 10% 9%
21%
19% 25%
14% 23% 32%
26% 30% 36% 37% 48%
32%
44% 43% 46% 42%
39% 48%
67% 70% 69%
26% 34%
28%
40% 32%
27% 35% 34%
30% 31% 23%
39%
28% 29% 28% 35%
40% 33%
21% 20% 22%
Optimistic Pessimistic Neither/Don't know
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Will people begin to feel
benefits of growth / what
happens next?
Unfounded
pessimism?
Expectations
management?
2013 2014
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Ben.page@ipsos.com © Ipsos MORI
#ipsosmorilive
And now our speakers….
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