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Support for the Labour Party is at the lowest level since the final days of Gordon Brown’s premiership, November’s Ipsos MORI Political Monitor reveals. Labour are down four points to 29%, their first score below 30% of the vote since before the last general election, while the Conservatives are up two points to 32%, giving them a three-point lead. This is a turnaround since last month, prior to recent media rumours of a Labour leadership challenge, when Labour held a three-point lead on 33% over the Conservatives’ 30%. UKIP are down two points from last month’s high on 14%, while the Liberal Democrats are up one point to 9%.
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Voting Intentions
3Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = 0
All giving a voting intention: 81%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
30%
30%
10%
14%
16%
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014, all certain to vote = 642
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 60%
Conservative lead = +3
32%
29%
9%
14%
16%
4
Fe
b-0
4M
ay-0
4A
ug
-04
No
v-04
Fe
b-0
5M
ay-0
5A
ug
-05
No
v-05
Fe
b-0
6M
ay-0
6A
ug
-06
No
v-06
Fe
b-0
7M
ay-0
7A
ug
-07
No
v-07
Fe
b-0
8M
ay-0
8A
ug
-08
No
v-08
Fe
b-0
9M
ay-0
9A
ug
-09
No
v-09
Fe
b-1
0M
ay-1
0A
ug
-10
No
v-10
Fe
b-1
1M
ay-1
1A
ug
-11
No
v-11
Fe
b-1
2M
ay-1
2A
ug
-12
No
v-12
Fe
b-1
3M
ay-1
3A
ug
-13
No
v-13
Fe
b-1
4M
ay-1
4A
ug
-14
No
v-14
0
10
20
30
40
50
29%
9%
32%
14%
2005 General Election
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through November 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions February ‘04 – November ‘14(all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
5
Feb-08
May-
08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-
09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-
10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-
11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-
12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-
13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-
14
Aug-14
Nov-14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their intention to vote? February ‘08 to November ‘14
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2010 General Election
Labour Conservative
72%66%
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through November 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
7
53
62
65
44
60
38
26
21
38
33
Net Satisfaction
Swing from October
2014
-15 +1
-36 +0.5
-44 -5
-6 -1
-27 +1
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8
Fe
b-0
8
Ma
y-08
Au
g-0
8
No
v-08
Fe
b-0
9
Ma
y-09
Au
g-0
9
No
v-09
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
y-10
Au
g-1
0
No
v-10
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
y-11
Au
g-1
1
No
v-11
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
y-12
Au
g-1
2
No
v-12
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
y-13
Au
g-1
3
No
v-13
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
y-14
Au
g-1
4
No
v-14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
26%
% s
atis
fied
Cameron
Clegg
General Election
38%
Miliband
21%Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders February ‘08 – November ‘14
Farage38%
9
Series1
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIRMAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
10
38%
53%
9%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
November 2014
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -15
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014
Nov
-06
May
-07
Nov
-07
May
-08
Nov
-08
May
-09
Nov
-09
May
-10
Nov
-10
May
-11
Nov
-11
May
-12
Nov
-12
May
-13
Nov
-13
May
-14
Nov
-14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
November 2006 – November 2014
11
Nov
-06
May
-07
Nov
-07
May
-08
Nov
-08
May
-09
Nov
-09
May
-10
Nov
-10
May
-11
Nov
-11
May
-12
Nov
-12
May
-13
Nov
-13
May
-14
Nov
-14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 265 Conservative supporters 18+, 8th -10th November 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
80%
14%
6%Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +66 Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
November 2006 – November 2014November 2014
12
Series1
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2014) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD (2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
13
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition
Leader
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (Labour) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n CALLAGHAN (1979-1980)
SMITH (1992-1994)
FOOT (1980-1983)
KINNOCK (1983-1992)
14
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month*Thatcher data starts in March 1977 (i.e. 25 months after becoming Conservative leader)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN
SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (Conservatives) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
HOWARD (2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
THATCHER* (1975-1979)
15
No
v-1
0Ja
n-1
1M
ar-
11
Ma
y-1
1Ju
l-1
1S
ep
-11
No
v-1
1Ja
n-1
2M
ar-
12
Ma
y-1
2Ju
l-1
2S
ep
-12
No
v-1
2Ja
n-1
3M
ar-
13
Ma
y-1
3Ju
l-1
3S
ep
-13
No
v-1
3Ja
n-1
4M
ar-
14
Ma
y-1
4Ju
l-1
4S
ep
-14
No
v-1
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2010 – November 2014November 2014
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
21%
65%
14%
Net = -44
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014
16
35%
58%
7%
No
v-1
0Ja
n-1
1M
ar-
11
Ma
y-1
1Ju
l-1
1S
ep
-11
No
v-1
1Ja
n-1
2M
ar-
12
Ma
y-1
2Ju
l-1
2S
ep
-12
No
v-1
2Ja
n-1
3M
ar-
13
Ma
y-1
3Ju
l-1
3S
ep
-13
No
v-1
3Ja
n-1
4M
ar-
14
Ma
y-1
4Ju
l-1
4S
ep
-14
No
v-1
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 234 Labour supporters 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014
Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
November 2014
Net = -23
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2010 – November 2014
17Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
No
v-0
8
Ma
y-0
9
No
v-0
9
Ma
y-1
0
No
v-1
0
Ma
y-1
1
No
v-1
1
Ma
y-1
2
No
v-1
2
Ma
y-1
3
No
v-1
3
Ma
y-1
4
No
v-1
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2008 – November 2014November 2014
26%
62%
12%
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -36
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014
18
No
v-0
8F
eb
-09
Ma
y-0
9A
ug
-09
No
v-0
9F
eb
-10
Ma
y-1
0A
ug
-10
No
v-1
0F
eb
-11
Ma
y-1
1A
ug
-11
No
v-1
1F
eb
-12
Ma
y-1
2A
ug
-12
No
v-1
2F
eb
-13
Ma
y-1
3A
ug
-13
No
v-1
3F
eb
-14
Ma
y-1
4A
ug
-14
No
v-1
4
0
102030
405060
708090
100
Base: 83 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2014
49%45%
6%Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +4
Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
November 2008 – November 2014
Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
19
38%
44%
18%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
All
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -6M
ar-
13
Ap
r-1
3M
ay-
13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3S
ep
-13
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3D
ec-
13
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4M
ar-
14
Ap
r-1
4M
ay-
14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4S
ep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – November 2014
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014
20
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party?
Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 124 UKIP supporters, 8th -10th November 2014.
89%
6%6%
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t knowDissatisfied
Ma
r-1
3A
pr-
13
Ma
y-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-1
3A
ug
-13
Se
p-1
3O
ct-1
3N
ov-
13
De
c-1
3Ja
n-1
4F
eb
-14
Ma
r-1
4A
pr-
14
Ma
y-1
4Ju
n-1
4Ju
l-1
4A
ug
-14
Se
p-1
4O
ct-1
4N
ov-
14
0
102030
405060
708090
100
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – November 2014
Net = +83
The economy
22
No
v-0
4
Ma
y-0
5
No
v-0
5
Ma
y-0
6
No
v-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
No
v-0
7
Ma
y-0
8
No
v-0
8
Ma
y-0
9
No
v-0
9
Ma
y-1
0
No
v-1
0
Ma
y-1
1
No
v-1
1
Ma
y-1
2
No
v-1
2
Ma
y-1
3
No
v-1
3
Ma
y-1
4
No
v-1
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Improve
Stay the sameGet worse Improve
Don’t know
Get worse
Stay the same
November 2014
EOI = +19
42%
30%
23%
5%
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014
23
Feb
-97
Aug
-97
Feb
-98
Aug
-98
Feb
-99
Aug
-99
Feb
-00
Aug
-00
Feb
-01
Aug
-01
Feb
-02
Aug
-02
Feb
-03
Aug
-03
Feb
-04
Aug
-04
Feb
-05
Aug
-05
Feb
-06
Aug
-06
Feb
-07
Aug
-07
Feb
-08
Aug
-08
Feb
-09
Aug
-09
Feb
-10
Aug
-10
Feb
-11
Aug
-11
Feb
-12
Aug
-12
Feb
-13
Aug
-13
Feb
-14
Aug
-14
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46
-56-48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism IndexIn
dex
(g
et b
ette
r m
inu
s g
et w
ors
e)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+19
+34
Impact of the recovery
25Personal financial circumstances- trend
Do you think that your personal financial circumstances will improve, get worse or stay the same over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2008
April 2009
March 2011
November 2013
November 2014
14%
17%
14%
23%
25%
45%
51%
37%
42%
52%
39%
30%
48%
33%
22%
2%
2%
3%
3%
2%
Improve Stay the same Get worse Don't know
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014
Personal EOI
+3
-10
-34
-13
-25
26Perceived impact of the recovery
As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy has grown by about 1.5%/3% compared to the same time last year. What impact, if any, do you feel this growth in the economy has had on you and your family’s standard of living so far?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Don’t know
3%
11%
36%
48%
1%
A fair amount
Not very much
A great deal
None at all
14%
84%
November 2013
Don’t know
3%
14%
31%49%
2%
A fair amount
Not very much
A great deal
None at all
80%
November 2014
17%
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014
27Perceived future impact of the recovery
And what impact, if any, do you think the growth in the economy will have on you and your family’s standard of living over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Don’t know
4%
15%
44%
33%
3%A fair amount
Not very much
A great deal
None at all
19%
77%
November 2013 November 2014
Don’t know
4%
18%
42%
33%
4%A fair amount
Not very much
A great deal
None at all
22%
75%
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014
Confidence in leaders and parties
29Readiness of Labour and Ed Miliband for government
On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements:
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8-11 November 2014
7%
4%
12%
7%
15%
9%
23%
16%
9%
9%
9%
12%
22%
26%
21%
26%
43%
47%
31%
35%
4%
5%
4%
4%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagreeStrongly disagree Don't know
Labour is ready to form the next government
Nov ‘14
Labour is ready to form the next government
June ‘14
Ed Miliband is ready to be Prime Minister
Nov ‘14
Ed Miliband is ready to
be Prime Minister
June ‘14
23%
35%
13%
22%
61%
52%
73%
65%
30Other parties’ readiness for coalition government
On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements:
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8-11 November 2014
UKIP is ready to form part of a UK coalition
government
Nigel Farage is ready to be a government minister
The Green Party is ready to form part of a UK coalition government
The SNP is ready to form part of a UK coalition
government8%
8%
11%
9%
21%
19%
19%
21%
13%
10%
7%
5%
19%
20%
13%
17%
27%
34%
41%
41%
12%
9%
9%
6%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagreeStrongly disagree Don't know
30%
30%
27%
29%
58%
54%
54%
46%