NJFuture Redevelopment Forum 2015 Kutner

REDEVELOPMENT IN AN ERA OF RISK

Part 1: Local Recovery Planning Manager Program

Part 2: Risk Assessments

Methodology

Results

Topics

LRPM PROGRAM

PART 1:

Initial Involvement

▪ FEMA seeking a partner for local recovery effort

▪ FEMA/Merck Foundation request to create LRPM position

▪ FEMA noted lack of local capacity in disaster response

▪ NJ Recovery Fund provided additional funding

The Program

Screening Criteria1. Considerable storm damage

2. Limited or no in-house planning capabilities

3. Primarily full-time residents

Who We Work With

RISK ASSESSMENT

Why Do A Risk Assessment?

Purpose:

Evaluate vulnerability to likely hazards;

Prioritize those actions that most effectively reduce or avoid future loss.

“If I had an hour to solve a problem I’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and 5 minutes thinking about solutions.”

-Albert Einstein

3 Step Process

1. Inundation Extent

2. Inundation Depth

3. Estimation of Exposure

NOTE: SLR projections from Rutgers UniversityDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences

RESULTS

Little Egg Harbor Township – Current

2050 SLR

2050 SLR/1% Storm

Property Class (Class Code)# of Lots

Exposed

# of Acres

Exposed

Vacant (1) 366 348

Residential (2) 4,083 686

Farm (3A) 1 6

Farm (3B) 0 0

Commercial (4A) 54 62

Industrial (4B) 0 0

Apartment (4C) 0 0

Public School Property (15A) 0 0

Public Property (15C) 180 8,795

Church/Charitable (15D) 5 4

Other Exempt (15F) 22 7

Total 4,711 9,909

▪ Total Exposed Lots: 4,711▪ % of Total Lots: 36%▪ Total Exposed Acres: 9,909▪ % of Total Acres: 34%

The Bottom Line

2050 SLR /1% Flood Scenario, Parcels

Property Class Total Exposed Value% of Total

Value

Vacant (1) $35,336,605 28%

Residential (2) $822,161,915 32%

Farm (3A) $35,800 13%

Farm (3B) $0 0%

Commercial (4A) $27,200,103 19%

Industrial (4B) $0 0%

Apartment (4C) $0 0%

Public School Property (15A) $0 0%

Public Property (15C) $30,158,550 28%

Church/Charitable (15D) $1,408,502 9%

Other Exempt (15F) $4,750,100 14%

Total $921,051,575 31%

Net Taxable $884,734,423 32%

2050 SLR /1% Flood Scenario, Value

The Bottom Line▪ Exposed Net Taxable Value: $884.7 million▪ % of Total Value: 32%

Sea Bright Borough - Current

2050 SLR

2050/1% Storm

Property Class

(Class Code)

# of Exposed

Lots

Exposed

Acres

Vacant (1) 215 61

Residential (2) 885 86

Commercial (4A) 61 58

Apartment (4C) 4 2

Public Property (15C) 13 10

Church/Charitable (15D) 3 1

Other Exempt (15F) 2 1

Total 1,183 218

2050 SLR /1% Flood Scenario, Parcels

Total Exposed Lots: 1,183 % of Total Lots: 87% Total Exposed Acres: 218 % of Total Acres: 87%

The Bottom Line

Property Class

(Class Code)

Total exposed

value

% of Total

Improvement Value

Vacant (1) $11,753,556 79%

Residential (2) $238,714,941 65%

Commercial (4A) $46,617,541 90%

Apartment (4C) $2,725,049 84%

Public Property (15C) $12,593,857 93%

Church/Charitable (15D) $1,537,657 56%

Other Exempt (15F) $1,476,500 100%

Total $315,419,101 69%

Net Taxable Value $299,811,087 69%

Exposed Net Taxable Value: $300 million % of Total Value: 69%

2050 SLR /1% Flood Scenario, Value

The Bottom Line

Tuckerton Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm

▪ Total Exposed Value: $224.4 million▪ % of Total Taxable Value: 50%▪ % of Total Area: 66%

The Bottom Line

Tuckerton Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm

Highlands Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm

▪ Total Exposed Value: $195 million▪ % of Total Taxable Value: 34%▪ % of Total Area: 41%

The Bottom Line

Highlands Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm

Maurice River Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm

▪ Total Exposed Value: $115 million▪ % of Total Taxable Value: 39%▪ % of Total Area: 21%

The Bottom Line

Maurice River Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm

Commercial Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm

▪ Total Exposed Value: $45.5 million▪ % of Total Taxable Value: 15%▪ % of Total Area: 34%

The Bottom Line

Commercial Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm

The Age of Innocence is So Over!

1. Can we continue to develop areas at risk?

2. Can we allow areas that suffer repetitive loss to rebuild in place?

3. Will taxpayers throughout the country be

willing to subsidize risky behavior?

The Age of Innocence is So Over!

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again

and expecting different results

Time for a new approach