Rabl IEEE-CZ presentation Prague 2012-09-24

VERONIKA RABL Principal, Vision & Results

Member, IEEE-PES

Vice Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee

Washington, DC

Praha, 24. září 2012

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Topics

IEEE/IEEE-USA

Energy Policy Recommendations

Background

Transportation

Power Supply

Electric Grid

Discussion

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IEEE

World’s largest professional association

more than 395,000 members in more than 160 countries; 45 percent from outside the US

Leading developer of voluntary, consensus-based international standards involving today's leading-edge electrotechnologies

portfolio of more than 900 active standards and more than 400 standards in development

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IEEE-USA

IEEE-USA advances the public good and promotes the careers and public policy interests of more than 215,000 engineers, scientists and allied professionals who are U.S. members of the IEEE.

“Building Careers and Shaping Public Policy”

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Energy Policy Committee

Made up mostly of power systems engineering professionals and academics from across the US

Expertise in areas such as: Power generation, transmission and distribution

Alternative energy resources

Nuclear power

Power system reliability

Smart Grid

Efficiency

Electric transportation

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Energy Situation

Energy underlies three converging challenges facing the United States

Economic Prosperity

National Security

Environmental Protection

Electricity can play a key role, but, substantial pressures to respond to environmental concerns

deal with uncertainties in both local and global energy supplies

accommodate the rapid evolution of new generation sources and technology options available to its users

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All Eyes on Electricity Generation

Electric utility sector accounts for about a third of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions

Over 40% of electricity generated by coal

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Electricity – Engine of Progress

Source: Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010), October 2011

Electrification • Electricity use is

increasing in both absolute and RELATIVE terms

Increasing energy productivity

• It takes less-and-less energy to fuel the economy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

2

4

6

8

10

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010%

pri

mar

y e

nerg

y u

sed

for

ele

ctri

city

Tho

usa

nd

Btu

/ch

ain

ed

(20

05

) d

olla

rs

Energy Use/$ GDP

ElectricityFraction

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Recommendations

Pursuing energy efficiency and demand response http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/EnergyEfficiency1110.pdf

Transforming transportation by diversifying energy sources

Greening the electric power supply

Building a stronger and smarter electrical energy infrastructure

Cyber and critical power, and energy infrastructure security

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Recommendations

Above all:

BUILD

FLEXIBILITY AND ADAPTABILITY

INTO ALL ELEMENTS OF

OUR ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

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Separated by Common Language?

billion = 109 vs 1012 in Europe

1012 = trillion

Quad (quadrillion) = 1015 Btu

MBtu could be 1 thousand Btu

MMBtu is 1 million Btu

Even the definition of efficiency is not consistent!

Fuel energy content HHV vs LHV

Efficiencies in Europe are 5 – 10% higher (or as high as 18% for H2 fuel cell)

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Transportation

National Security Risk

Almost entirely oil

2/3 of entire petroleum use

Reduce Emissions

Cannot capture dispersed emissions

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Transforming Transportation by Diversifying Energy Sources

Electrifying Transportation: Plug-In and Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Developing and Using Alternative Transportation Fuels

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TRANSPORTATION About 30% of GHG Emissions

Source: Conti, J., U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transportation Sector, Asilomar presentation, July 2009

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Where the Energy Goes

Source: EPA, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (Feb. 2, 2012)

GASOLINE

ENGINE

EFFICIENCY

Tank

-to-

Wheels

14 –16%

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Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels

Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel Well to refinery = .95

Refining to gasoline = .85

Gasoline delivery = .97

Tank to wheels = .14 – .16

Efficiency of 11% to 13%

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Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels

Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel

Efficiency of 11% to 13%

Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel Delivered to power plant = .95

Power generation = .35 - .45

Transmission and distribution = .90 - .93

Plug to battery = .80 - .90

Battery to wheels = .80 - .90

Efficiency of 19% to 32%

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Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels

Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel

Efficiency of 11% to 13%

Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel

Efficiency of 19% to 32%

Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel

Efficiency of 27% to 42%

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Electricity to the Rescue!

VEHICLE EFFICIENCY WELL-TO-WHEELS

Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel

Efficiency of 11% to 13%

Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel

Efficiency of 19% to 32%

Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel

Efficiency of 27% to 42%

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Greenhouse Gases Reduced

Source: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007

GHG EMISSIONS FOR PHEV-20 CHARGED FROM SPECIFIC POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGY

ASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg for conventional, 37.9 mpg for hybrids, and 49% miles driven on electricity for PHEV

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GHG Reduced

Source: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007

ASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg for conventional, 50 mpg for hybrids, and 49% miles driven on electricity for PHEV

GHG EMISSIONS FOR PHEV-20 CHARGED FROM SPECIFIC POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGY

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Achilles’ Heel?

Achilles at Achilleion, Corfu (detail); Sculptor Ernst Herter, 1884

COST

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Battery Costs Declining

Source: Department of Energy FY 2012 Congressional Budget Request, DOE/CF-0059, Vol. 3, February 2011

Ford, May 2012

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Greening the Electric Power Supply

Expanding the Use of Renewable Electric Generation

Revitalizing Nuclear Power Generation

Reducing Carbon Emissions from Fossil Power Plants

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Generation by Fuel 2010

Issues by Fuel Source Coal Natural gas Renewables Nuclear

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COAL

30% installed capacity

Till recently about ½ of electricity generation

One of our most abundant resources

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Regulatory Pressures

Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for new and existing plants

Coal Combustion Residuals Regulation (coal ash disposal)

Performance standards for emissions of carbon dioxide (new and major retrofit)

Virtually every coal plant must

RETROFIT, RETIRE OR REPOWER

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Ag(e)ing Fleet

About 50% of all capacity and 73% of coal-fired capacity was 30 years or older at the end of 2010

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~50 GW of Coal-fired Generation Expected to Retire by 2020

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) and http://www.flickr.com/photos/usgao/7801651396/sizes/o/in/photostream/

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NATURAL GAS

Less expensive than just about any other form of generation

EIA estimate: 60% of capacity additions between now and 2035

May slow momentum or displace renewables

New power system issues

Fuel supply

Balancing requirements

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CCGT Competes with Baseload Coal

Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)

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How Long Before Prices Go Up?

Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)

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RENEWABLES

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2012, DOE/EIA-0383(2012), June 2012

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50 GW Installed Wind Capacity

Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)

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The Future of Tax Credits for Solar & Wind?

Source: RenewablesBiz Daily, Sept. 12, 2012

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State Incentives Account for About ½ of capacity added 2010-11

Source: DSRI (Database for State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency)/ US Partnership for Renewable Finance

Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies..www.dsireusa.org / September 2012.

29 states,+ Washington DC and 2

territories,have Renewable Portfolio

Standards(8 states and 2 territories have

renewable portfolio goals).

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Where Will Electricity Come From?

Coal in decline for the foreseeable future High risk (carbon regulation uncertain)

No CCS scheme has yet been piloted, let alone demonstrated at scale

Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions

Renewables will grow even in absence of federal carbon policy

And the rest? Nuclear? What will it take?

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NUCLEAR

Traditionally the lowest cost electricity

BUT

Public acceptance issues

High initial cost a significant barrier

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Nuclear Fleet Aging Too

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=228&t=21

The average age of U.S. commercial reactors is about 32 years

The oldest entered commercial service in 1969

The last newly built reactor entered service in 1996

Tennessee Valley Authority is completing an on-site addition planned to begin operation in 2013

U.S. commercial nuclear reactors are licensed to operate for 40 years by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

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License Renewals

Source: EnergyBiz, Sept. 12, 2012

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Two Plants Licensed Early 2012 …More to Come

Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 2012 (http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/new-reactor-map.html)

Location of Projected New Nuclear Power Reactors

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Major Recommendations/ Nuclear

Comprehensive spent nuclear fuel management program that would close the fuel cycle and develop a disposal facility as mandated by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982

Advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies to reduce proliferation concerns, and to reduce the volume and lifetime of wastes

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Infrastructure

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U.S. Network

Current U.S. electric grid is a network of

10,000 power plants

170,000 miles of high-voltage (>230 kV) transmission lines

Millions of miles of lower-voltage distribution lines

More than 15,000 substations

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The Grid

Source: NERC, Understanding the Grid

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Electricity Industry Restructuring

Many players

Not necessarily conducive to cooperation or optimal system design

Market efficiency vs. system efficiency

Competition

LocalRegulation

Generation

Transmission

Distribution

Federal

Regulation

SCSC MOMO

MEME TOTO

SOSO

SC - Security Coordinator

MO - Market Operator

SO - System Operator

TO - Transmission Owner

SC - Security Coordinator

MO - Market Operator

SO - System Operator

TO - Transmission Owner

Retail sales

Competition?

Competition

LocalRegulation

Generation

Transmission

Distribution

Federal

Regulation

RC MO

BA TO

TOP

SC - Security Coordinator

MO - Market Operator

SO - System Operator

TO - Transmission Owner

RC -

MO - Market Operator

TOP -

- Transmission Owner

Retail sales

Competition?

RC – Reliability CoordinatorMO – Market OperatorTOP – Transmission OperatorBA – Balancing AuthorityTO – Transmission Owner

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The Parties to the System

Different utility types: IOU, Municipal, rural

Vertically integrated, restructured, holding companies

Independent (merchant) generators

Demand response providers (aggregators)

Transmission owners

State regulators, NERC (North American Electric Reliability Corporation), FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)

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Electricity Transactions

Source: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012

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NERC Regions & Balancing Authorities

Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)

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ISO/RTO* Map

Sources: NERC and 2012 National Electric Transmission Congestion Study presentation, Aug. 2012

About two thirds of the country have organized markets

*) ISO – Independent System Operator, RTO – Regional Transmission Organization

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PJM RTO

Source: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012

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Physical Infrastructure Transmission Constraints

Source: Source: U.S. DOE, National Electric Transmission Congestion Study, 2009

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Transmission Congestion Costs

Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Sept. 26, 2011, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3230

Transmission congestion drives power price division between upstate

and downstate New York

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Conditional Constraints

Source: U.S. DOE, National Electric Transmission Congestion Study, 2009

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Major Infrastructure Issues

Increasingly complex and competitive bulk power market is adding stress to the grid

Grid congestion and higher transmission losses

Higher rates for electricity

Market design and grid expansion must maintain adequate levels of grid reliability

Reinforcing the grid and deploying advanced technologies critical for the nation

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Markets vs. Electricity

Market equilibrium on top of Kirchhoff's circuit laws topology

Need for new specialty:

Market design w/electrical engineering foundation

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Building a Stronger and Smarter Electrical Energy Infrastructure

Transforming the Network into a Smart Grid

Expanding the Transmission System

Accommodating New Types of Generation and New Loads

Variable generation

Local generation, PV, microgrids

Plug-in vehicles

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Smart Grid Recommendations

Standards

Splintered jurisdictions

Real-time data

60 http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/ElectricInfrastructureJuly2010.pdf

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Energy Policy Recommendations

PROVIDE A LONG-TERM COMMITMENT TO ENERGY RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND DEMONSTRATION

62 http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energypolicy0211.pdf

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For More Information

www.ieeeusa.org

http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energypolicy0211.pdf

www.ieeeusa.org/communications/ebooks

VRabl@Vision-Results.com