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VERONIKA RABL Principal, Vision & Results
Member, IEEE-PES
Vice Chair, IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee
Washington, DC
Praha, 24. září 2012
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Topics
IEEE/IEEE-USA
Energy Policy Recommendations
Background
Transportation
Power Supply
Electric Grid
Discussion
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IEEE
World’s largest professional association
more than 395,000 members in more than 160 countries; 45 percent from outside the US
Leading developer of voluntary, consensus-based international standards involving today's leading-edge electrotechnologies
portfolio of more than 900 active standards and more than 400 standards in development
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IEEE-USA
IEEE-USA advances the public good and promotes the careers and public policy interests of more than 215,000 engineers, scientists and allied professionals who are U.S. members of the IEEE.
“Building Careers and Shaping Public Policy”
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Energy Policy Committee
Made up mostly of power systems engineering professionals and academics from across the US
Expertise in areas such as: Power generation, transmission and distribution
Alternative energy resources
Nuclear power
Power system reliability
Smart Grid
Efficiency
Electric transportation
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Energy Situation
Energy underlies three converging challenges facing the United States
Economic Prosperity
National Security
Environmental Protection
Electricity can play a key role, but, substantial pressures to respond to environmental concerns
deal with uncertainties in both local and global energy supplies
accommodate the rapid evolution of new generation sources and technology options available to its users
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All Eyes on Electricity Generation
Electric utility sector accounts for about a third of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
Over 40% of electricity generated by coal
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Electricity – Engine of Progress
Source: Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010), October 2011
Electrification • Electricity use is
increasing in both absolute and RELATIVE terms
Increasing energy productivity
• It takes less-and-less energy to fuel the economy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010%
pri
mar
y e
nerg
y u
sed
for
ele
ctri
city
Tho
usa
nd
Btu
/ch
ain
ed
(20
05
) d
olla
rs
Energy Use/$ GDP
ElectricityFraction
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Recommendations
Pursuing energy efficiency and demand response http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/EnergyEfficiency1110.pdf
Transforming transportation by diversifying energy sources
Greening the electric power supply
Building a stronger and smarter electrical energy infrastructure
Cyber and critical power, and energy infrastructure security
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Recommendations
Above all:
BUILD
FLEXIBILITY AND ADAPTABILITY
INTO ALL ELEMENTS OF
OUR ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
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Separated by Common Language?
billion = 109 vs 1012 in Europe
1012 = trillion
Quad (quadrillion) = 1015 Btu
MBtu could be 1 thousand Btu
MMBtu is 1 million Btu
Even the definition of efficiency is not consistent!
Fuel energy content HHV vs LHV
Efficiencies in Europe are 5 – 10% higher (or as high as 18% for H2 fuel cell)
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Transportation
National Security Risk
Almost entirely oil
2/3 of entire petroleum use
Reduce Emissions
Cannot capture dispersed emissions
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Transforming Transportation by Diversifying Energy Sources
Electrifying Transportation: Plug-In and Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Developing and Using Alternative Transportation Fuels
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TRANSPORTATION About 30% of GHG Emissions
Source: Conti, J., U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transportation Sector, Asilomar presentation, July 2009
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Where the Energy Goes
Source: EPA, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (Feb. 2, 2012)
GASOLINE
ENGINE
EFFICIENCY
Tank
-to-
Wheels
14 –16%
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Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel Well to refinery = .95
Refining to gasoline = .85
Gasoline delivery = .97
Tank to wheels = .14 – .16
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
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Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel Delivered to power plant = .95
Power generation = .35 - .45
Transmission and distribution = .90 - .93
Plug to battery = .80 - .90
Battery to wheels = .80 - .90
Efficiency of 19% to 32%
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Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 19% to 32%
Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 27% to 42%
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Electricity to the Rescue!
VEHICLE EFFICIENCY WELL-TO-WHEELS
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 19% to 32%
Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 27% to 42%
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Greenhouse Gases Reduced
Source: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007
GHG EMISSIONS FOR PHEV-20 CHARGED FROM SPECIFIC POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGY
ASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg for conventional, 37.9 mpg for hybrids, and 49% miles driven on electricity for PHEV
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GHG Reduced
Source: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007
ASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg for conventional, 50 mpg for hybrids, and 49% miles driven on electricity for PHEV
GHG EMISSIONS FOR PHEV-20 CHARGED FROM SPECIFIC POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGY
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Achilles’ Heel?
Achilles at Achilleion, Corfu (detail); Sculptor Ernst Herter, 1884
COST
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Battery Costs Declining
Source: Department of Energy FY 2012 Congressional Budget Request, DOE/CF-0059, Vol. 3, February 2011
Ford, May 2012
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Greening the Electric Power Supply
Expanding the Use of Renewable Electric Generation
Revitalizing Nuclear Power Generation
Reducing Carbon Emissions from Fossil Power Plants
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Generation by Fuel 2010
Issues by Fuel Source Coal Natural gas Renewables Nuclear
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COAL
30% installed capacity
Till recently about ½ of electricity generation
One of our most abundant resources
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Regulatory Pressures
Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for new and existing plants
Coal Combustion Residuals Regulation (coal ash disposal)
Performance standards for emissions of carbon dioxide (new and major retrofit)
Virtually every coal plant must
RETROFIT, RETIRE OR REPOWER
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Ag(e)ing Fleet
About 50% of all capacity and 73% of coal-fired capacity was 30 years or older at the end of 2010
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~50 GW of Coal-fired Generation Expected to Retire by 2020
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) and http://www.flickr.com/photos/usgao/7801651396/sizes/o/in/photostream/
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NATURAL GAS
Less expensive than just about any other form of generation
EIA estimate: 60% of capacity additions between now and 2035
May slow momentum or displace renewables
New power system issues
Fuel supply
Balancing requirements
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CCGT Competes with Baseload Coal
Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)
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How Long Before Prices Go Up?
Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)
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RENEWABLES
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2012, DOE/EIA-0383(2012), June 2012
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50 GW Installed Wind Capacity
Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)
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The Future of Tax Credits for Solar & Wind?
Source: RenewablesBiz Daily, Sept. 12, 2012
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State Incentives Account for About ½ of capacity added 2010-11
Source: DSRI (Database for State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency)/ US Partnership for Renewable Finance
Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies..www.dsireusa.org / September 2012.
29 states,+ Washington DC and 2
territories,have Renewable Portfolio
Standards(8 states and 2 territories have
renewable portfolio goals).
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Where Will Electricity Come From?
Coal in decline for the foreseeable future High risk (carbon regulation uncertain)
No CCS scheme has yet been piloted, let alone demonstrated at scale
Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions
Renewables will grow even in absence of federal carbon policy
And the rest? Nuclear? What will it take?
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NUCLEAR
Traditionally the lowest cost electricity
BUT
Public acceptance issues
High initial cost a significant barrier
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Nuclear Fleet Aging Too
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=228&t=21
The average age of U.S. commercial reactors is about 32 years
The oldest entered commercial service in 1969
The last newly built reactor entered service in 1996
Tennessee Valley Authority is completing an on-site addition planned to begin operation in 2013
U.S. commercial nuclear reactors are licensed to operate for 40 years by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
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License Renewals
Source: EnergyBiz, Sept. 12, 2012
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Two Plants Licensed Early 2012 …More to Come
Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 2012 (http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/new-reactor-map.html)
Location of Projected New Nuclear Power Reactors
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Major Recommendations/ Nuclear
Comprehensive spent nuclear fuel management program that would close the fuel cycle and develop a disposal facility as mandated by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982
Advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies to reduce proliferation concerns, and to reduce the volume and lifetime of wastes
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Infrastructure
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U.S. Network
Current U.S. electric grid is a network of
10,000 power plants
170,000 miles of high-voltage (>230 kV) transmission lines
Millions of miles of lower-voltage distribution lines
More than 15,000 substations
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The Grid
Source: NERC, Understanding the Grid
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Electricity Industry Restructuring
Many players
Not necessarily conducive to cooperation or optimal system design
Market efficiency vs. system efficiency
Competition
LocalRegulation
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Federal
Regulation
SCSC MOMO
MEME TOTO
SOSO
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
Retail sales
Competition?
Competition
LocalRegulation
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Federal
Regulation
RC MO
BA TO
TOP
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
RC -
MO - Market Operator
TOP -
- Transmission Owner
Retail sales
Competition?
RC – Reliability CoordinatorMO – Market OperatorTOP – Transmission OperatorBA – Balancing AuthorityTO – Transmission Owner
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The Parties to the System
Different utility types: IOU, Municipal, rural
Vertically integrated, restructured, holding companies
Independent (merchant) generators
Demand response providers (aggregators)
Transmission owners
State regulators, NERC (North American Electric Reliability Corporation), FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)
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Electricity Transactions
Source: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012
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NERC Regions & Balancing Authorities
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)
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ISO/RTO* Map
Sources: NERC and 2012 National Electric Transmission Congestion Study presentation, Aug. 2012
About two thirds of the country have organized markets
*) ISO – Independent System Operator, RTO – Regional Transmission Organization
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PJM RTO
Source: FERC Energy Primer, July 2012
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Physical Infrastructure Transmission Constraints
Source: Source: U.S. DOE, National Electric Transmission Congestion Study, 2009
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Transmission Congestion Costs
Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Sept. 26, 2011, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3230
Transmission congestion drives power price division between upstate
and downstate New York
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Conditional Constraints
Source: U.S. DOE, National Electric Transmission Congestion Study, 2009
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Major Infrastructure Issues
Increasingly complex and competitive bulk power market is adding stress to the grid
Grid congestion and higher transmission losses
Higher rates for electricity
Market design and grid expansion must maintain adequate levels of grid reliability
Reinforcing the grid and deploying advanced technologies critical for the nation
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Markets vs. Electricity
Market equilibrium on top of Kirchhoff's circuit laws topology
Need for new specialty:
Market design w/electrical engineering foundation
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Building a Stronger and Smarter Electrical Energy Infrastructure
Transforming the Network into a Smart Grid
Expanding the Transmission System
Accommodating New Types of Generation and New Loads
Variable generation
Local generation, PV, microgrids
Plug-in vehicles
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Smart Grid Recommendations
Standards
Splintered jurisdictions
Real-time data
60 http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/ElectricInfrastructureJuly2010.pdf
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Energy Policy Recommendations
PROVIDE A LONG-TERM COMMITMENT TO ENERGY RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND DEMONSTRATION
62 http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energypolicy0211.pdf
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For More Information
www.ieeeusa.org
http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energypolicy0211.pdf
www.ieeeusa.org/communications/ebooks
