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Working Group 3 Introduction Let’s get real: What is the likelihood of a lunar base by 2022? What will it take to move the needle? Next Giant Leap Conference, November 9-13, Hawaii
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Let’s get real:What is the likelihood of a lunar base by 2022?
What will it take to move the needle?Next Giant Leap Conference, November 9-13, Hawaii
Image credit: NASA
WORKING
GROUP 3
QUESTION:
When will humans establish
a permanent human base on the Moon?
scicast.org/#!/questions/1048/trades/create/safe
Or search for “moon base”
Image credit: NASA
By DEC 31, 2022
8%Jan 1, 2023-Dec 31,
2029
NOT BEFORE Jan 1,
2030
58
%
34
%Combinatorial forecast based on contributions
from 14 delegates who have shared their forecast
on the SciCast platform.
IS THIS A GOOD
PREDICTION?
Basis: SPACE SECTOR
EXPERTISE
SOUND GUT FEEL
EXPERTS often
GET It WRONGExpert Political Judgement (1995)
Yet, IT IS POSSIBLE TO MAKE
GOOD PREDICTIONS ARMED
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
Foxes are better at
prediction
than hedgehogs
TASK #1: Good predictionWe’ll get grounded in the fundamentals of probabilistic
forecasting. Look at a broad sweep of facts. And come up with a
well-thought out prediction.
TASK #2: HIGH IMPACT
INTERVENTIONSWe’ll work through half a dozen of ‘what if’ scenarios. Look at the
history of major accomplishments since fish crawled onshore. And
hone in on the three highest impact interventions.
THE OUTPUT of WG3
WILL LIVE ON after the
conference
THE
dashboard
JULY 2015
Starring SPOCK: Space Program on Ontologically Computed
Knowledge. Produced in collaboration with Deep Knowledge
Ventures. Covering all major global space sector related
sources in English, Russian, Mandarin, Arabic and Hindi.
Augmented by human space industry experts.
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