Let’s get real:What is the likelihood of a lunar base by 2022?

What will it take to move the needle?Next Giant Leap Conference, November 9-13, Hawaii

Image credit: NASA

WORKING

GROUP 3

QUESTION:

When will humans establish

a permanent human base on the Moon?

scicast.org/#!/questions/1048/trades/create/safe

Or search for “moon base”

Image credit: NASA

By DEC 31, 2022

8%Jan 1, 2023-Dec 31,

2029

NOT BEFORE Jan 1,

2030

58

%

34

%Combinatorial forecast based on contributions

from 14 delegates who have shared their forecast

on the SciCast platform.

IS THIS A GOOD

PREDICTION?

Basis: SPACE SECTOR

EXPERTISE

SOUND GUT FEEL

EXPERTS often

GET It WRONGExpert Political Judgement (1995)

Yet, IT IS POSSIBLE TO MAKE

GOOD PREDICTIONS ARMED

WITH NOTHING MORE THAN

GOOGLE

Foxes are better at

prediction

than hedgehogs

TASK #1: Good predictionWe’ll get grounded in the fundamentals of probabilistic

forecasting. Look at a broad sweep of facts. And come up with a

well-thought out prediction.

TASK #2: HIGH IMPACT

INTERVENTIONSWe’ll work through half a dozen of ‘what if’ scenarios. Look at the

history of major accomplishments since fish crawled onshore. And

hone in on the three highest impact interventions.

THE OUTPUT of WG3

WILL LIVE ON after the

conference

THE

dashboard

JULY 2015

Starring SPOCK: Space Program on Ontologically Computed

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