How to Predict a Serial Arsonist

How to Predict a Serial ArsonistEva Ljungkvist Björn Granvik

Dan Granvik !former County Sheriff’s Department Special Unit focusing on Organized Crime & Repeat Offenders

Eva Ljungkvist !Fire protection engineer Arson investigator i.e. Fire-nerd

Björn Granvik !Civil Engineer Programmer i.e. IT-nerd

• Like most peoplehabits, patterns, …

• Modus operandi

• Evidence?

The Serial Arsonist

Copper

High risk?

© Guillaume Baviere, Flickr

Method Triangulation

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Timings

Device Primed Device Ignited Fire Discovered

Case 33 23:19

Case 34 07:12

In the Head of Dan

© TheKarenD, Flickr

In the head of an Arsonist?

• Data is too complex

• …and hidden

• Power in relationships

© Jenny Spadafora, Flickr

A Graph• Node

”noun”

• Relationship”structure”

• Properties

Aname: ”Björn” headsize: 60

technology: ”Neo4j”

strength: 10

B

LIKES

C USES

name: ”Eva”

USES

Dproject: ”Helmuth”

USED_IN

HAS_MEMBER

Pattern Matching

A

B C

Pattern Matching

An example

Hospital

Arson Device

name: ”Heimlich Hospital” adress: ”21 Prune Street" city: ”Snicket Town"

lives_at House A

name: ”Hus A” adress: ”22 Prune Street" city: ”Snicket Town"

description: ”Toarulle”

Fire

description: ”Big poff” with

happened_at

Timings

name: ”Count Olaf”

next_to

started

Example Queries◦ Do we have a pattern, a serial arsonist?!◦ What new targets? High vs. low risk?!◦ Where and when should we apply preventive

measures?

How to Predict?

◦ Crossover ◦ Support complex

world descriptions ◦ Usability

© Moyan Brenn, Flickr

Results so far◦ Weather conditions!◦ Time frame!◦ Trends of arson !◦ Location & arson device!◦ High risk objects & the need of fire protection!◦ Worst case scenario & the need of resources!◦ Physical security & immediate surroundings

Serial

Eva Ljungkvist!

!

eva@oceanus.se

http://evasbrandblogg.se/

Björn Granvik!

!

bjorn.granvik@gmail.com

@bjorngranvik

http://bit.ly/bjorngranvikblog

Thanks!