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Serial arsonist are like most people. Habits drive us even when putting a house fire. As such they display patterns in their modus operandi which are visible. In this session we cover what we learnt so far and how we believe that working across disciplines stand a greater chance of predicting the arsonist's actions.
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How to Predict a Serial ArsonistEva Ljungkvist Björn Granvik
Dan Granvik !former County Sheriff’s Department Special Unit focusing on Organized Crime & Repeat Offenders
Eva Ljungkvist !Fire protection engineer Arson investigator i.e. Fire-nerd
Björn Granvik !Civil Engineer Programmer i.e. IT-nerd
• Like most peoplehabits, patterns, …
• Modus operandi
• Evidence?
The Serial Arsonist
Copper
High risk?
© Guillaume Baviere, Flickr
Method Triangulation
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Timings
Device Primed Device Ignited Fire Discovered
Case 33 23:19
Case 34 07:12
In the Head of Dan
© TheKarenD, Flickr
In the head of an Arsonist?
• Data is too complex
• …and hidden
• Power in relationships
© Jenny Spadafora, Flickr
A Graph• Node
”noun”
• Relationship”structure”
• Properties
Aname: ”Björn” headsize: 60
technology: ”Neo4j”
strength: 10
B
LIKES
C USES
name: ”Eva”
USES
Dproject: ”Helmuth”
USED_IN
HAS_MEMBER
Pattern Matching
A
B C
Pattern Matching
An example
Hospital
Arson Device
name: ”Heimlich Hospital” adress: ”21 Prune Street" city: ”Snicket Town"
lives_at House A
name: ”Hus A” adress: ”22 Prune Street" city: ”Snicket Town"
description: ”Toarulle”
Fire
description: ”Big poff” with
happened_at
Timings
name: ”Count Olaf”
next_to
started
Example Queries◦ Do we have a pattern, a serial arsonist?!◦ What new targets? High vs. low risk?!◦ Where and when should we apply preventive
measures?
How to Predict?
◦ Crossover ◦ Support complex
world descriptions ◦ Usability
© Moyan Brenn, Flickr
Results so far◦ Weather conditions!◦ Time frame!◦ Trends of arson !◦ Location & arson device!◦ High risk objects & the need of fire protection!◦ Worst case scenario & the need of resources!◦ Physical security & immediate surroundings
Serial
Eva Ljungkvist!
!
http://evasbrandblogg.se/
Björn Granvik!
!
@bjorngranvik
http://bit.ly/bjorngranvikblog
Thanks!
