Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate...

Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food

Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches(GCP/INT/126/JPN)

Tatsuji KOIZUMI Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO

Project Overview

Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches (AMICAF)

Total Approved Budget: US$ 2.5 million Project operation: October 2011-October 2014 Participating countries: The Philippines and Peru

(only first two components).

Objectives

To assist developing countries to address climate change assessment and adaptation, to improve food security through a comprehensive framework.

This framework would bridge climate change impact assessment, food Insecurity vulnerability analysis and livelihood adaptation approaches.

AMICAF Framework: Addressing the Linkage Between Climate Change and Food Security

Component1: Impacts of

Climate Change on Agriculture

Component2: Food Insecurity

Vulnerability Analysis

at household level

Component3: Livelihood

Adaptation to Climate Change

Component4: Institutional Analysis and Awareness

Raising

Global Guideline for Implementation in other

countries (Global delivery)

Component 1: Impacts of climate change on

agriculture Nation-wide assessment of projected impacts of climate

change on agriculture at the sub-national scale to inform Component2 vulnerability analysis and Component3 adaptation planning.

MOSAICC – Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change Multiple impact models (Climate downscaling, Crops, Hydrology,

Economy) in one package Software plus training

Newly developed Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Market Model, named PAM (Provincial Agricultural Market) model, is used in addition to MOSAICC’s climate downscaling, crop and hydrology modules.

MOSAICC with Agricultural Market Model

Statistical climatedownscaling models

Historical weatherobservations

Downscaled climate projections

Hydrological modelCrop growth

simulation models

GCM low resolution climate projections

Historical dischargerecords

Water availability for irrigation

Historical water use statistics

Historical yield data

Yield projections

Crop parameters

Soil data

Technology trend scenarios

Soil and land use data

Dam data

Provincial agricultural market impact

Provincial Agricultural Market (PAM) modela partial equilibrium economic modelAgricultural market data

Food insecurity vulnerability analysis

(Component2)

Component 2:Food Insecurity Vulnerability

Analysis Develops an analytical econometrics model with

the best available national household datasets The choice of models heavily depends on data

availability (a variety of socio-economic data at smaller administrative units, preferably geo-referenced)

Characterizing vulnerability and identifying variables associated with highest levels of vulnerability

Current FIVIMS Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping System

in the Philippines

Component 2 will be built upon past work on analysis and mapping of food insecurity by incorporating climate change-related factors.

Current FIVIMS

Climate Change Impacts

AMICAF

Component 3:Livelihood Adaptation to

Climate Change Community–based adaptation making best use of

information from Components 1+2. Identification, validation, field-testing, and

evaluation of good adaptation practices at local context through participatory processes and capacity development.

Field tests: Camarines Sur (Luzon Island) and Surigao del Norte (Mindanao Island)

Component 4:Institutional analysis and

awareness raising Institutional analysis Knowledge management, communication and

capacity development Interactive fora Institutional mechanism and produce guidance

materials Policy analysis

Current Progress (The Philippines (1))

PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services

Administration) conducted downscaled climate projections.

PhilRice (Philippine Rice Research Institute) and UP-NIGS (The

university of the Philippines Diliman National Institute of Geological Sciences ) is conducting yield and hydrological projections .

NEDA (National Economic and Development Authority) is conducting agricultural market projections.

CBMS (The De La Salle University through the Community-Based

Monitoring System Network Team) is conducting food insecurity vulnerability analysis at household level .

Current Progress (The Philippines (2))

Department of Agriculture-Regional Field Unit 5 and Philrice, Agusan del Norte are conducting filed tests to cope with climate change, collecting good practice options and organizing farmer field schools.

A national consultant is conducting institutional analysis.

Sample of Rainfall Projection Results for 3 modelsfor January-June (2011-2040)

under A1B Scenario in the Philippines

BCM2model

CNCM3model

ECHMA5model

Drought-prone test plots in upland

2012 Wet Season 2013 Dry Season

Saline-tolerant test plots in Caraga

Climate-smart Farmer Field Schools

Typhoon tracking by FFS participants

Fabricating manual rain gauge Varietal evaluation during Field Day

Community hazard assessment

Activities in the Philippines(2012)

Project inception meeting (January 12) Technical workshop for Component1 (February

15) Project steering committee (June 26) Technical workshop for Component 2 (June 27) Training workshop for Component1 (July 17-24,

August 16-17, September 10-14 and September 21)

Activities in the Philippines (2013)

Project steering committee (January 16) Training workshop for Component2 (Feb 11-12) Training workshop for Component1 (PAM) (Feb 14-15) Regional Expert Forum on Climate Change, Agriculture

and Food Security in ASEAN (May 2-3, Bangkok) APEC ATCWG (June 29, Medan, Indonesia) Technical workshop for institutional analysis (July) Final workshop for Component 1 (August) (Plan) Final workshop for Component 2 (December) (Plan)

Activities in the Philippines (2014: Plan)

APEC ATCWG (June, China) Final workshop for Component 3

(September) Final workshop for Component 4

(September) Final workshop for all Components

(September)

Activities in Peru (2013)

Inception workshop (March 7) Technical workshop for Component1 (March 12) Technical workshop for Component2 (July 11-12) Project Steering Committee (July) Training workshop for Component 1 (July-August)

Activities in Peru (2014: Plan)

Final workshop for Component1 (November; Plan)

Final workshop for Component2 (December; Plan)

Final Workshop (May, Plan) APEC ATCWG in 2014 (June)

Thank you!

Tatsuji.Koizumi@fao.org