Climate, Disasters and Food Insecurity with examples from Africa

Maxx DilleyDisaster and Risk Management

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction

Outline

1. Climate, disasters, and food insecurity2. Analysis of climate-related food insecurity

risks3. Climate prediction, impacts prediction4. Risk management, examples from Africa

food security outlooks for contingency planningprotecting livelihoods by protecting livestock tradepreventing malaria epidemics

1) Climate, Disasters and Food Insecurity

Disaster risk hotspots (Dilley, Chen, Deichmann et al, forthcoming)

Economic loss risks

Mortality risks

Hunger hotspots(CIESIN, Millennium Development Project)

Disaster mortality risk hotspots: Drought and floods

2) Analysis of Climate-Related Food Insecurity Risks(Focus on Africa)

Food economy zones

cropsag.labour

gifts

purchaselivestock

The baseline picture

Hazard example:50% crop failure

cropsag.labour

gifts

deficitpurchaselivestock

Effect on access to crops

Coping step example:Sell 1 additional goat

cropsag.labour

gifts

deficitlivestock+ purchase

purchase

Final result

Information on response strategies allows an analysis of how households will cope with the effects of a hazard (Slides courtesy Food Economy Group/FEWS)

Outcome = Baseline + Hazard + Response

Households become food insecure when they cannot meet 100% of food requirements

% a

nnua

l foo

d re

quire

men

ts

Benson C. and Edward J. Clay. 1998

3) Climate Prediction, Impacts Prediction

Corr_coef. = 0.8

MOS CORRECTED

OBSERVATION

Statistically corrected ECHAM4 GCMOct-Dec precipitation to a station (Indeje)

Correlation between statistically corrected climate model output and observed rainfall, Oct-Dec

NDVI forecast, OND, Eastern Kenya

0

0.5

1

1.5

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97

Year

inde

x predicted

observed

Tailoring process for decision-support

Identify risk managers and decision calendar/optionsDesign operationally useful productConduct joint researchProductApplicationTesting

4) Risk Management, Examples from Africa

Food Security Outlooks for Contingency Planning in the Greater Horn of Africa

Seasonal climate forecast (USGS)

Expected crop performance (USGS)

Northern season: JJA Equatorial season: SOND

Expected October forage deviations (Texas A&M)

Food insecurity in August, 2004 and outlook for DecemberCurrent (August) Outlook for December

Food security outlook compared to reported food security in DecemberOutlook for December Reported in January

4) Risk Management, Examples from Africa

Protecting Livelihoods by Protecting Livestock Trade between the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East

Billion dollar livestock trade between the GHA and the Middle EastRVF livestock disease outbreaks lead to imposition of trade barriersMosquito-borne, climate/environment-relatedModel provides early warning for surveillance and controlRed Sea Livestock Trade Commission

Livestock trade: Rift Valley Fever risk model

Cumulative rainfall threshold for Kenya outbreaks (Davies)

NDVI threshold, 1997 outbreak (Linthicum et al, Gadain)

4) Risk Management, Examples from Africa

preventing malaria epidemics in southern Africa

Malaria incidence: BotswanaM. Thomson, S. Mason, S.J. Connor

year

200219981994199019861982

ln m

alar

ia in

cide

nce

& M

EWS

outp

uts

1.5

1.0

.5

0.0

-.5

-1.0

-1.5

CMAP MEWS

DEMETER MEWS

ln malaria incidence

— DJF rainfall (obs. March)

--- DJF rainfall (predicted, Nov)

Tailored malaria forecast made December, for DJF 2004-05

Malariaearly warning poster,distributedto regionalhealth andcontrol offices

Conclusion

Byassessing risksidentifying risk factors, andunderstanding who manages them

We cancreate information and capacityto manage risks instead of managing emergencies.