IDTechEx Research: The Future of Robotics

The Future of Robotics Dr Jon Harrop Director, IDTechEx

j.harrop@idtechex.comwww.IDTechEx.com

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Our new report includes: • Players• Applications• Technologies• Trends• 10 year market forecasts by sector

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Webinar agenda

• A brief history of robotics• Definitions• Emerging applications• Facilitating technologies• New players• Economic impact

A Brief History of Robotics

In 1961 the Unimate robot went into operation at a General Motors factory:

Robotics markets were dominated by industrial robot arms for decades:

Use of industrial robot arms in electronics and semiconductor industries just matured:

An ABB FlexPicker robot assembling solar panels

Use of industrial robot arms is growing most rapidly in the food and beverage industries:

FANUC robot arm packaging meat

Mobile robots

Run, fly and swim

Definitions

What is a robot? No precise definition. So we take a broad, inclusive definition. Some soft requirements: o >2 DOF o Sensors o Autonomy

Car wash

What is not a robot?

Washing machine

CNC milling machine

Delta Maker 3D printer RC buggy

Dish washer

Emerging Applications

Aerial inspection Remote controlled UAVs are used for aerial inspection of wind turbines, pylons and flare stacks on oil rigs today. In the future many will be autonomous.

Constructing walls Construction Robotics use a conventional industrial robot arm as part of a larger system to lay bricks:

Constructing buildings WinSun use giant 3D printers to construct buildings such as this villa:

Helping with medical research Researchers at UCLA are using a KUKA articulated robot arm to simulate wear and tear on human knee joints:

Autonomous Farming Japanese company Spread are building the world’s first fully autonomous lettuce farm in Kyoto, scheduled to open in 2017.

Mining Nautilus Minerals are the first company in the world to obtain a license for deep sea mining using robots:

Exploration NASA’s humanoid robot for deep space exploration.

Facilitating technologies

Bespoke motors Californian Carbon Robotics had cheap bespoke Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSMs) manufactured for them in China for their KATIA robot arm. See also Igus of Germany.

BLDC motors As hard drives move to solid state technology the light weight and high power BrushLess Direct Current (BLDC) motors used in them move into different kinds of robots:

Drive electronics Modern drive systems require substantially more complicated drive electronics to power them:

Energy storage Low cost, lightweight, high energy lithium ion batteries and high power supercapacitors are essential for many next-generation mobile robots:

Sensors Depth camera

LIDAR GPS

End of Arm Tooling (EOAT)

Source: “Robotic design: Frontiers in visual and tactile sensing” – Design World.

Artificial Intelligence Deep learning classifying road images as cars, pedestrians and so on:

New players

Komatsu Komatsu are the world leader in autonomous haul trucks for the mining industry with substantial installed bases in Australia and Chile:

3D Robotics California-based 3D Robotics are poised to ride the wave of autonomous multirotors, particularly for agriculture, with 130% revenue growth from 2014 to 2015 and the FAA loosening the regulation of autonomous drones in the US in November of 2015:

Universal Robots Dutch company Universal Robots, founded in 2005, are the worldwide market leader in collaborative robotics with their UR5 and UR10 robots:

Dyson A major player in vacuum cleaners, Dyson released their first robotic vacuum cleaner in 2014:

Economic impact

Major growth areas The following market sectors will grow rapidly over the next decade:

Agriculture Autonomous transport Collaborative robotics Healthcare robots in countries with demographic time bombs Industrial robot arms in developing countries Logistics Military Mining Personal robots

Market forecast We are forecasting growth of the worldwide robotics market from $23bn to $123bn in 2026:

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

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Dr Jon Harrop / j.harrop@IDTechEx.com

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