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LECTURE L02EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGY
Agenda
Evolution of Technology The 7th Kingdom What is Technology Product Development The Long View
Reading
Evolution of Technology The 7th Kingdom What is Technology Product Development The Long View
The Next Wave will be built previous waves
Mainframe
1947
Minicomputer
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet Smartphone
2007
Evolution of technology is closelylinked with the evolution of mankind
Evolution
Use of technology have been with mankindfor millions of years
Evolution
Charles Darwin publishedOn The Origin of Species in 1852
Evolution
Evolutionary ProcessEach generationbreeds the next generation, becomes and input for the next
Natural selection
Survival of the fittest
Samuel Butler published 1859 a letter to the editor of the Press in New Zealand, called “Darwin among the Machines”
Kingdom of the machines
Evolutionary Process
Kevin Kelly: The Seventh Kingdom
Kevin Kelly’s The 7th Kingdom
There are many similarities with evolution of biology and technology
Both follow evolutionary process
Is technology something new?
Is this technology?Common object that existed when we were born
All technology was once newIs this technology?
You can only see the evolution by looking back
All technology was once new
?And you should know it will change in the future — so never dismiss a new primitive and clunky new gadget
All technology was once new
All technology was once new
What about this device?
Technology invented by Johannes Gutenberg in the 15th century
Lived in Germany
Was blacksmith, goldsmith and merchant
The Printing Press
Gutenberg’s printing press
Movable type made of wood, pressed with ink using a screw
Printed 42 lines
The Printing Press
Technology in the 15th century
Bartolomeo Cristofori 1655-1731
Piano
Nocturne Op. 9 No 2
Frédéric Chopin1810-1849
Johann Sebastian Bach would only in 1747 approve the piano
We think it is something new
New technology is emotional
Technology
Old technology is taken for granted
Techne is greek for art or skillLogos is greek for word, speech
TechnologyFirst used by Aristotle
TechnologyThe word “technology” was used in 1801 by Johann Beckmann (1739-1811), a German scientific author and teacher
The Effects of Good Government, a fresco in the City Hall of Siena by Ambrogio Lorenzetti, 1338.
Kevin Kelly: What Technology Wants
Definition of Technology
Process by which an organisation transforms labor, capital, material, and information into products and services of greater values
Technology
The value you get out of a product for which you have paid some cost
Product Performance
31977 Apple II $1,298 4.000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz
2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1.000.000.000 bytes memory Intel 2.0GHz
2000 2010
iMac iPhone
iMac G3Mac OS 9.0.4
500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB MemoryScreen - 786K pixels
Storage - 30GB Hard Drive
iPhone 4iOS 4.0
1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB MemoryScreen - 614K pixels
Storage - 32GB Flash Drive
THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD
Innovation
The change in the technology
Product Development
Mainframe
1947
Minicomputer
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet Smartphone
2007
Waves of technologies
Product DevelopmentProducts that are built based on older technologies follow a specific path from initial idea to a mature stable product
The S-curveImprovements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology
Problem is that people inthe R&D phase maynot be right in the growth phase
The S-curve
Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S-curves where each curve is faster
The S-curve
Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S-curves where each curve is faster
The S-curve
Technology Life CycleDescribes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life"
In the early daysThe innovators and technologyenthusiasts drive the marketThey demand technologySmall percentage of the market
In the later daysThe pragmatists and conservativesdominate; they want solutions andconvenienceThe big market
Technology Life Cycle
The Long View of Technology
200018001600140012001000800
Com
plex
ity o
f Tec
hnol
ogy
Time
EXPONENTIALGROWTH
http://www.bordalierinstitute.com/images/brainEvolution.jpg
Evolution of the human brain
Evolutionary Process
200018001600140012001000800
Com
plex
ity o
f Tec
hnol
ogy
Time
With all the technology in the last 200 years, how was life before that?
What about in the year 79?
Pompeii
The oldest body in history
Life was Local and Liniar
Until it became Global and Exponetial
L03 Exponential WorldNext
Please note: Video Lecture — No class due to travelling
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