(Not) Predicting What's Next

(Not) Predicting What's Next(Not) Predicting What's Next

Zeh FernandoZeh Fernando

FirstbornFirstborn

August 2013August 2013

First big mistake:First big mistake:

Knowing everythingKnowing everything

“Technology changes quickly;People's minds change slowly”

– Bret Victor, “The Future of Programming”” - http://vimeo.com/71278954

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHEIOgONq6A

Source: http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/1995/02/26/the-internet-bah.html

– Cliff Stoll, “The Internet? Bah!” (February 1995)

“No online database will replace your daily newspaper”

“Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab,

predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers

straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure”

“The network is missing a most essential ingredient of

capitalism: salespeople.”

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Snake_Oil

“Now, whenever I think I know what's happening, I

temper my thoughts: Might be wrong, Cliff...”

Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2013, slide 55 (http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2013)

Source: “What a difference a decade makes” (http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/what-a-difference-a-decade-makes-barrons-proclaims-amazon-best-retailer/15389)

“Once Wal-Mart decides to go after Amazon, there's no

contest”

“[Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos] is a middleman, and he will

likely be outflanked by companies that sell their wares

directly to consumers”

“Books can be printed out on traditional computer

printers”

The reality:The reality:

Amazon vs E-Commerce vs Retail SalesAmazon vs E-Commerce vs Retail Sales

Source: Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-of-the-week-emails-reign-is-over-social-networking-is-the-new-king-2010-4?op=1)

Modern smartphonesModern smartphones

iPhone first introduced in June 2007(6 years ago)

“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get

any significant market share. No chance.”

Source: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2007-04-29-ballmer-ceo-forum-usat_N.htm

– Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft (April 2007)

“Try typing a web key on a touchscreen on an

Apple iPhone, that's a real challenge. You cannot

see what you type.”

Source: http://windowsphonethoughts.com/news/show/23449/rim-ceo-blasts-apple-and-windows-mobile-devices.html

– Mike Lazaridis, CEO, RIM (November 2007)

The reality:The reality:

20102010 20112011 20122012 2013201300

1010

2020

3030

4040

5050

6060

GoogleGoogle AppleApple RIMRIM MicrosoftMicrosoft

Smartphone Market Penetration in US, %Smartphone Market Penetration in US, %

Source: ComScore (http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/pages/monthly-smartphone-ownership-figures-based-surveys-conducted-comscore)

The reality:The reality:

Smartphone Market Penetration Worldwide, in %Smartphone Market Penetration Worldwide, in %

Source: Gartner (http://www.statista.com/statistics/266136/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-operating-systems/)

20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 2013201300

1010

2020

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

9090

GoogleGoogle AppleApple MicrosoftMicrosoft RIMRIM NokiaNokia

Modern tabletsModern tablets

iPad first introduced in April 2010(3 years ago)

“A guy tried to take notes on one in a meeting with

me yesterday. That was fun. The meeting didn't go

real fast.”

Source: http://www.pcworld.com/article/198038/Ballmer_Bites_Back_Disses_the_iPad.html

– Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft (June 2010)

“I think people are going to be using PCs in

greater and greater numbers for many years to

come”

The reality:The reality:

Tablet/PC Yearly Shipments Worldwide, in millionsTablet/PC Yearly Shipments Worldwide, in millions

Source: IDC (http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24129713)

20102010 20112011 20122012 2013*2013* 2014*2014* 2015*2015* 2016*2016*00

5050

100100

150150

200200

250250

300300

350350

400400

TabletTablet Portable PCPortable PC All PCsAll PCs

The reality:The reality:

Top 5 PC vendors worldwide shipments, in thousandsTop 5 PC vendors worldwide shipments, in thousands

Source: IDC (http://www.businessinsider.com/the-pc-industry-implodes-2013-4)

Q1 2012Q1 2012 Q1 2013Q1 201300

55

1010

1515

2020

HPHP LenovoLenovo DellDell AcerAcer ASUSASUS

The reality:The reality:

Global PC shipments in Q4 2012Global PC shipments in Q4 2012

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Gartner (http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2013)

The reality:The reality:

PC/iOS & Android Unit SalesPC/iOS & Android Unit Sales

Source: Asymco, “The PC Calamity” (http://www.asymco.com/2013/07/18/the-pc-calamity/)

(Outpacing PC sales 2.6 to 1)(Outpacing PC sales 2.6 to 1)

A high schooler guide to the future of A high schooler guide to the future of programming languagesprogramming languages

(Circa 1994)

C, COBOL, Clipper

The reality: most popular languages, TIOBE The reality: most popular languages, TIOBE Programming Community IndexProgramming Community Index

(August 2013)

C: #2

COBOL: #27

Clipper: ...

Source: TIOBE Programming Community Index for August 2013 (http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/content/paperinfo/tpci/index.html)

Second big mistake:Second big mistake:

Predicting what's coming next

Source: Street Cleaning, 1898 (http://books.google.com/books?id=CWlEAAAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false)

Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)

Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)

Source: Villemard, World in 2000 as Predicted in 1910 (http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-in-2000/)

Source: Arthur Radebaugh, "Closer Than We Think”, 1961 (http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/forget-barcodes-1961s-cash-register-of-the-future-und-509145222)

Source: The Newspaper of Tomorrow, 1934 (http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/paleofuture/2013/03/the-newspaper-of-tomorrow-11-predictions-from-yesteryear/)

Source: Future Passed, 1959 (http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/24/3035470/future-passed-television-history)

Source: Magic Highway USA, 1958 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3funFSRAbU)

The unknown:The unknown:

Disruptive Innovation

“(...) successful companies can put too much emphasis on customers' current needs, and fail to adopt new technology or business models that will meet customers' unstated or future needs”

Disruptive InnovationDisruptive Innovation

Standard TechnologyStandard Technology Disruptive TechnologyDisruptive Technology

TimeTime

Util

ityU

tility

What about you?What about you?

Source: Thomas Jensen - Software Museum (http://thomasjensen.com/museum.shtml)

Thank you.Thank you.

@zeh@zeh

zeh@firstborn.comzeh@firstborn.com

http://zehfernando.comhttp://zehfernando.com