View
18
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Steve SongNetwork Startup Resource Center
Open Cellular WorkshopNairobi, 19 June 2017
The Changing Face of Access
The Impact of Fibre on Wireless
The growth of undersea fibre optic capacity has been a catalyst for change.
The impact of technological change often takes years to
manifest
https://afterfibre.nsrc.org
Access to fibre optic infrastructure opens up the potential to offer global competitive services for municipalities, communities, entrepreneurs.
WIRELESS REGULATION AND THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
Challenge
2006 Digital Switchover Decision
2007
2007
2010
SPECTRUM LICENSING TODAY
Challenge
Spectrum Auctions
NIGERIA
2013 - 2.3GHz • 30 MHz of 2.3GHz spectrum• 23 million USD• won by Bitflux (a local consortium)• 4 years later little evidence of roll-
out
2014 - 2.6 GHz• 14 lots of 2x5MHz of spectrum
(140MHz in total)• Launched and withdrawn twice in
2014 then 2015• 2016, MTN successfully bids for 6
lots meeting the reserve of $16M per lot, a total of $96M
MOZAMBIQUE
2013 - 800MHz
• auction of five lots of 2x5MHz
• reserve price of $30M per lot
• no bids, auction withdrawn
• remains fallow with no published plans to re-auction
Spectrum Auctions
SOUTH AFRICA
2010 to present
• Three attempts since 2010 to launch auctions in 2.6GHz and 3.5GHz and more recently 800MHz
• Attempts to include national strategic objectives into the auction design resulting in significant pushback from operators
KENYA
2014 - 800MHz
• Kenyan government agrees on exchange with largest incumbent Safaricom. 2x15MHz spectrum in exchange for $56M plus promise to build police communications network
• Predictably, Airtel and Telkom file complaints
• Net result: all three operators get 2x10MHz and pay $25M each
Spectrum Auctions
SENEGAL
2015 - 800MHz (3 blocks 2x30MHz), 700MHz (4 blocks 2x20MHz) , 1800MHz (3 blocks 2x30MHz)• in short... a lot of spectrum• reserve price set at USD50M
provoking letter of complaint from operators
• negotiations ensued with the result that the former fixed-line incumbent Sonatel agree to pay $53M for 2x10MHz in 800MHz band and 2x10MHz in 1800MHz band.
GHANA
2015 - 800MHz
• 2 lots of 2x10MHz (total of 40MHz)
• reserve price of 67.5M per lot (initially $92M per lot)
• MTN the only bidder to meet reserve price
• plans to auction rest of 800MHz spectrum to fund digital terrestrial broadcast infrastructure
Spectrum Auctions
2016 - 900MHz & 1800MHz• reserve price initially set at
$50M per MHz
• initially only Telecom Egypt agree to bid, Orange and Etisalat complained
• regulator stood firm and operators ultimately capitulated, agreeing to pay what appear to be punitive prices for spectrum
• total revenue exceeds 1.9 billion USD
EGYPT Country YearTotal Paid
(USDMillions)
Price/MHz(USD
Millions)
Nigeria 2013 23 0.77
Kenya 2015 25 1.25
Senegal 2016 53 1.33
Nigeria 2014 16 1.6
Mozambique 2013 30 3
Ghana 2015 67.5 3.38
Egypt 2016 797 53.13
UNLICENSED SPECTRUM
Opportunity
Unlicensed Spectrum Growth
Growth of Unlicensed Spectrum Use
WiFi
LOW COST MOBILE
Opportunity
New Generation Technologies
Increasing Diversity in Regulatory Models Decreases Risk for Regulators
Unlicensed
Dynamic
Set-asides for rural use
With wireless in particular there is a need for more diverse strategies
OPEN TELECOM DATA
Opportunity
Access to comprehensive fibremaps can prevent duplication, promote investment, identify coverage gaps
Fibre Infrastructure Maps
Good Practice
In South Africa, Dark Fibre Africapublishes a comprehensive map of their fibre network.
Tower Data
Good Practice
• Operator
• Location
• Frequency
• Height
• Power
Spectrum Assignments
?
?
?
?
?
?
Spectrum Assignments
? ?
? ?
? ?
Good Practice
Kenya Nigeria
Monitoring Spectrum Use
Conclusion
• We Need Open Telecom Data to Enable Better Conversations with Regulators
• Embracing Diverse Regulatory Models Will
– Reduce risk for regulators
– Open opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship
– Future proof regulation Steve Song@stevesonghttps://nsrc.orghttps://manypossibilities.net
Recommended