Steve SongNetwork Startup Resource Center

Open Cellular WorkshopNairobi, 19 June 2017

The Changing Face of Access

The Impact of Fibre on Wireless

The growth of undersea fibre optic capacity has been a catalyst for change.

The impact of technological change often takes years to

manifest

https://afterfibre.nsrc.org

Access to fibre optic infrastructure opens up the potential to offer global competitive services for municipalities, communities, entrepreneurs.

WIRELESS REGULATION AND THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

Challenge

2006 Digital Switchover Decision

2007

2007

2010

SPECTRUM LICENSING TODAY

Challenge

Spectrum Auctions

NIGERIA

2013 - 2.3GHz • 30 MHz of 2.3GHz spectrum• 23 million USD• won by Bitflux (a local consortium)• 4 years later little evidence of roll-

out

2014 - 2.6 GHz• 14 lots of 2x5MHz of spectrum

(140MHz in total)• Launched and withdrawn twice in

2014 then 2015• 2016, MTN successfully bids for 6

lots meeting the reserve of $16M per lot, a total of $96M

MOZAMBIQUE

2013 - 800MHz

• auction of five lots of 2x5MHz

• reserve price of $30M per lot

• no bids, auction withdrawn

• remains fallow with no published plans to re-auction

Spectrum Auctions

SOUTH AFRICA

2010 to present

• Three attempts since 2010 to launch auctions in 2.6GHz and 3.5GHz and more recently 800MHz

• Attempts to include national strategic objectives into the auction design resulting in significant pushback from operators

KENYA

2014 - 800MHz

• Kenyan government agrees on exchange with largest incumbent Safaricom. 2x15MHz spectrum in exchange for $56M plus promise to build police communications network

• Predictably, Airtel and Telkom file complaints

• Net result: all three operators get 2x10MHz and pay $25M each

Spectrum Auctions

SENEGAL

2015 - 800MHz (3 blocks 2x30MHz), 700MHz (4 blocks 2x20MHz) , 1800MHz (3 blocks 2x30MHz)• in short... a lot of spectrum• reserve price set at USD50M

provoking letter of complaint from operators

• negotiations ensued with the result that the former fixed-line incumbent Sonatel agree to pay $53M for 2x10MHz in 800MHz band and 2x10MHz in 1800MHz band.

GHANA

2015 - 800MHz

• 2 lots of 2x10MHz (total of 40MHz)

• reserve price of 67.5M per lot (initially $92M per lot)

• MTN the only bidder to meet reserve price

• plans to auction rest of 800MHz spectrum to fund digital terrestrial broadcast infrastructure

Spectrum Auctions

2016 - 900MHz & 1800MHz• reserve price initially set at

$50M per MHz

• initially only Telecom Egypt agree to bid, Orange and Etisalat complained

• regulator stood firm and operators ultimately capitulated, agreeing to pay what appear to be punitive prices for spectrum

• total revenue exceeds 1.9 billion USD

EGYPT Country YearTotal Paid

(USDMillions)

Price/MHz(USD

Millions)

Nigeria 2013 23 0.77

Kenya 2015 25 1.25

Senegal 2016 53 1.33

Nigeria 2014 16 1.6

Mozambique 2013 30 3

Ghana 2015 67.5 3.38

Egypt 2016 797 53.13

UNLICENSED SPECTRUM

Opportunity

Unlicensed Spectrum Growth

Growth of Unlicensed Spectrum Use

WiFi

LOW COST MOBILE

Opportunity

New Generation Technologies

Increasing Diversity in Regulatory Models Decreases Risk for Regulators

Unlicensed

Dynamic

Set-asides for rural use

With wireless in particular there is a need for more diverse strategies

OPEN TELECOM DATA

Opportunity

Access to comprehensive fibremaps can prevent duplication, promote investment, identify coverage gaps

Fibre Infrastructure Maps

Good Practice

In South Africa, Dark Fibre Africapublishes a comprehensive map of their fibre network.

Tower Data

Good Practice

• Operator

• Location

• Frequency

• Height

• Power

Spectrum Assignments

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Spectrum Assignments

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Good Practice

Kenya Nigeria

Monitoring Spectrum Use

Conclusion

• We Need Open Telecom Data to Enable Better Conversations with Regulators

• Embracing Diverse Regulatory Models Will

– Reduce risk for regulators

– Open opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship

– Future proof regulation Steve Song@stevesonghttps://nsrc.orghttps://manypossibilities.net