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Seeking solutions to congestion, air pollution and health: the role of Bus Rapid Transit in this challenge, Workshop
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1
Seeking solutions to congestion, air pollution and health: the role of Bus Rapid Transit in this challenge
Anumita RoychowdhuryCentre for Science and Environment
Workshop for Media on Delhi’s Bus Rapid Transit System
International Federation of Evironmental Journalist
New Delhi,
October 29, 2009
2
Delhi is losing battle of car-bulge: The rapid increase in vehicles is destroying all gains of air pollution and health
3
1996: Crisis of health; of answers
This whipped up public anger
4
Delhi implemented first generation measures………
Vehicles
Euro II and Euro III emissions standards
Pre-mix 2T Oil
One of the largest CNG programmes
New PUC norms enforced
15 year old commercial vehicles phased out
Bypassed transit traffic
Diesel run auto rickshaw banned
Scaling up bus transport, BRT and metro
IndustryZoning policy for industry. Phased out polluting industry
Installation of pollution control equipments in thermal power plants. New plants on natural gas
Cleaner fuels for industrial boilers
Other sources
Hospital incineration
Ban on open burning of biomass
5
CNG Bus Emissions in 2004
0.32
0.009 0.0070
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
Bharat stage II DieselBus (500ppm max.
sulfur)
Bharat stage II DieselBus +CRT (50ppm
max. sulfur)
Bharat statge II CNGBus + 3 way catalyst
PM
em
issio
ns fro
m b
uses in
gra
mm
es p
er
kilo
metr
e
CNG was our first leapfrog option
Euro II diesel bus emits 46 times higher PM than Euro II CNG bus
Source: Teri
Natural gas vehicles sidestepped poor quality diesel It was a Clean fuel programme linked with augmentation of public transport
6
Disinformation campaign started
Lobbies at work: bus manufacturers; bus owners; oil oil companies; diesel interests..
Had to distinguish between fact and fiction
CNG vehicles emit more ultrafine particles
CNG causes cancer
CNG vehicles are unsafe
CNG technology is experimental
There is not enough gas to meet transport demand
CNG buses are more expensive and will hurt the poor
CNG experimental. Not done anywhere..
7
The verdict April 5, 2002
Give priority to transport - allocate 16.1 lakh kg of CNG per day
Phase out 800 diesel buses every month.
Diesel buses to pay a penalty per bus per day (Rs 30 crore collected in diesel tax to invest in public transport)
8
Public sphere in public debate….
9
Delhi got cleaner air: it avoided pollution; got health benefits
PM10 at ITO Traffic Intersection
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mic
rogr
amm
e pe
r cu
bic
met
re
PM10 trend projection pre Supreme Court directions
PM10 trend March 98- Dec 05, Post Supreme Court directions
10
0
60
120
180
Res. Areas Ind. Areas
mic
rogr
am/
cubi
c m
etre
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Pollution levels rising again: need big answers again
11
The next generation challenge
• Poor vehicle technology =pollution
• Better technology x number of vehicles= pollution….. And also congestion
• The numbers negate all impact
12
It took 37 years to reach the first million mark for personal vehicles (by 1988.)
In another 14 years (by 2002) the city added 2 more millions
In just 5 years (between 2002 and 2007) 1.55 millions more added
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1986
-87
1990
-91
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
.
mill
ion
s
Cars, jeeps and two wheelers Other vehicles
Explosive numbers
Source: Delhi transport data
231333
564 580
350
704
1054 1102
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Cars Tw ow heelers
Total privatevehicles
Total vehicles(private
+commercial)
num
bers
Per day reg. during 2000-01* Per day reg. during 2006-07
Daily
In 5 years Delhi doubled the registration of vehicles
Source: Estimated on the basis of Delhi Economic Survey, 2005-06
13
Road per vehicle decreased in 35 years
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1971
-72.
1980
-81.
1990
-91.
1993
-94.
1994
-95.
1995
-96.
1996
-97.
1997
-98.
1998
-99.
1999
-00.
2000
-01.
2001
-02.
2002
-03.
2003
-04.
2004
-05.
2005
-06.
Roa
d le
ngth
in k
ms
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Roa
d le
ngth
per
100
0 ve
hicl
es
Road length in kms
Road length per 1000 vehicles+71% in ten years
+51% in ten years
+32% in next ten years
+9% in5 years
Source: Delhi Economic Survey
14
Roads..flyovers..space?
• Delhi already has 21% of its land area under roads
• Between 1996 and 2006 road length increased by 20%. Cars increased by 132 per cent
• Road space decreased, not increased
• Will decrease further..cannot build more and more
15
Cities are ParalyzedCities are ParalyzedThe Crawling TrafficThe Crawling Traffic
Source: Anon 2008, Study on traffic and transportation policies and Strategies in Urban Areas in India, MOUD, p63
The average journey speed in Delhi (16 km/hr), Mumbai (16 km/hr) and Kolkata (18 The average journey speed in Delhi (16 km/hr), Mumbai (16 km/hr) and Kolkata (18 km/hr): Abysmally poor compared to smaller citieskm/hr): Abysmally poor compared to smaller cities
16
Speed plummets
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
One way Second way One way Second way One way Second way
Morning peak Evening peak Off peak
>2020-2525-3030-3535-4040-4545-50< 50
Congestion is reflected in the increased number of low -speed roads
CRRI study on major arterial roads:
-- During the morning and evening peak -- 55-60 per cent of the roads have travel speeds less than 30 kmph.
-- Even during off-peak hours 40-45 per cent of the roads have travel speeds less than 30 kmph.
-- About 20 per cent have travel speeds less than 20 kmph throughout the day.
Source: City Development Plan
17
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
Dhola Kuan to Raja Garden
Raja Garden to Azadpur
Azadpur to I.S.B.T.
I.S.B.T. to B.S.Gurudwara
B.S.Gurudwara to AIIMS
AIIMS to Dhola Kuan
PCU per hour
1990 2004
Peak volume traffic has increased phenomenally Nearly 123 per cent growth on many roads (in PCU/hour)
Source: Based on City Development Plan of Delhi, 2006, Eco Smart
Choked…..Choked…..
Other road segments
Peak designed capacity (PCU per hour)
Actual Peak volume (PCU per hour) in 2002
Dhaula Kuan to Raja Garden
8004 10726
B. S Gurudwara to AIIMS
10959 12493
AIIMS to Dhaula Kuan
10981 13617Source: IL&FS 2004 cited in CDP Delhi
Traffic volume exceeds designed capacity of key arterial roads
NH8 (Delhi-Gurgaon) is designed for a peak traffic volume of 160,000 pcu by 2015. There are already 130,000 pcu fighting for space! Ring Road: 48 km; 6 carriageway; 1,60,000 PCU per day; Exceeds capacity of 75,000 vehicles/dayNow projections: reach 4,00,000 by 2011 -- needs 24 lanes
Do we have this space? Where?
Congestion cause massive delays: Commuting population losing 2.5 hours each day
19
Reality checkReality checkBuses marginalised in DelhiBuses marginalised in Delhi
Source: Anon 2008, transport demand forecast study: study and development of an integrated cum multi modal public transport network for NCT of Delhi, RITES, MVA Asia Ltd, TERI, SeptemberRITES: Modal share in DelhiRITES: Modal share in Delhi
20
Cars threaten energy security
Source: Lee Schipper, 2008
Bus transport can make a differenceStudies show in Bangalore -- An increase in
public transport share from 62 per cent to 80 per
cent can lead to fuel saving equal to 21 per cent
of the fuel consumed in the base case.
23 per cent reduction in total vehicles and freed-
up road space equivalent to taking off nearly
418,210 cars from roads.
CO2 emissions can drop by 13 per cent. Among
local pollutants PM can drop by 29 per cent and
NOx 6 per cent.
Personal vehicles high CO2 emittersIn Delhi 60% of the CO2 emissions load from all vehicles are from cars and two-wheelers
Between 2002 and 2007, the CO2 emissions load from cars increased by 73% and from two wheelers by 61%. (CSE)
Source: ADB, 2006
21
• Need second generation reforms
• Need to make transition to public transport
22
Bus moves people; but adds to chaos; fights for space with cars; no speed; no reliability; very poor service for poor..marginalised but not replaced
23
Bus numbers have stagnated
1932
32863082
36563470 3461 3454
1505
2514
37293845 3850 39153804
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-2007(upto
october 2006)Time Period
Nu
mb
er o
f B
use
s
total fleet of DTC CNG buses under stage carriage fleet
Linear (CNG buses under stage carriage fleet) Linear (total fleet of DTC)
• Delhi government is investing to expand the bus fleet by nearly 5000 buses – Delhi wants modern, convenient and even air conditioned buses.
• But……
Delhi is evolving a bus strategy…
24
Only increasing bus numbers will not help. Give them traffic priority…..
• Performance of bus system deteriorates in congested and mixed traffic
• Require more time to complete one journey, turn-around is slow and affects the frequency of services and its optimum utilization.
• Bus caught in congestion becomes even less attractive.
• Bus Rapid Transport is global answer to improve bus speed and make buses more efficient at affordable rates
25
BRT is not about only buses. It is about all road users
Redistribution of road space
Segregation will increase space, not reduce space
It will move people more efficiently and faster -- large numbers already commute by bus and aim should be to get more on bus
If not done then the growth of vehicles -- cars and two-wheelers is unsustainable
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Car
/taxi
Two
Whe
eler
Aut
o R
icks
haw Bus
Met
ro
Trai
n (IR
)
Bic
ycle
Cyc
le R
icks
haw
Wal
k
Car
/taxi
Two
Whe
eler
Aut
o R
icks
haw Bus
Met
ro
Trai
n (IR
)
Bic
ycle
Cyc
le R
icks
haw
All trips Only Vehicular Trips
Valu
es in
Per
cent
age
2001
(2007 - 2008)
One lane being wasted due to inefficient utilisation of road space by bus
Unused space equivalent to one lane
Curbside lane generally not being used by motorised traffic
Current paradigm is wasteful
Source: TRIPS
28
The Transition………
Delhi Bus Corridor
29
Bare facts…….
Initial Operation: May 2008• • Length: 5.6 kms• • Stations: 9• • Peak Load: 6,500 passenger/hr/direction• • Frequency: 120 buses/hr• • Commercial Speed In corridor: 16-19 km/hr
(peak hour)– Off corridor: 7-11 km/hr (peak hour)
• • Infrastructure Investment: Rs. 14 crores/km (3 million/km)
30
What were we reading in the newspapers?
Newspaper reports on BRT…
• “Colossal inconvenience..”• “Loss of trees…”• “Bumper to bumper…”• “Taking away lanes from
private vehicles….”• “Bus karo…traffic in
narrow lanes, snarled up, honking, hooting…”
• “Weapon of mass dementia…”
• “Scrap BRT…”
Newspaper reports on traffic jam …
But did not make the connection between the problem and the solution
31
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Bus commuter Pedestrain/Cyclist Car and two-wheelercommuters
Other commuters
% o
f re
sp
on
de
nts
Yes No No specific answer
We asked people on the corridor: Are you happy with dedicated lane system of BRT?
Source: CSE survey
We heard the voice of urban majority…
88% of bus commuters; 85% of pedestrians and cyclists, 45% of cars ad two-wheelers said a resounding YES
32
…..…Who has benefited from BRT?
33
Distribution of Vehicles - By Mode
2%23%
75%
Motor Vehicles
Buses
Cycle & Cycle Rkshw
Distribution of People - By Mode
55%
33%
11%
Motor Vehicles
Buses
Cycle & Cycle Rkshw
Chirag Delhi Junction
Morning Peak Hour
(Ambedkar Nagar to Moolchad)
4,916 Vehicles
11,480 People
Source: Dario Hidalgo and M Pai study for CSE, 2008 Mimeo
You get different answers depending on your priorities – moving vehicles vs
moving people
Buses are 2% of all vehicles but carry 55% of people
Cars and two-wheelers 75% of the vehicles but carry 33% of the people
34
Year MV Bus NMT Total Traffic volume
2003 5430 272 854 6556
2008 10604 200 1476 12280
Motor vehicle lane?Traffic volume doubles just in 5 years on this corridor…Press Enclave Junction during peak hours (Morning)
Is this sustainable……….
Source: TRIPS
35
Bus Corridor has reduced the average travel time for the majority of the commuters on the corridor
People Delay - Morning Peak Hour - In Hours
1,440 1,648
3,1862,078
0
2000
4000
6000
Without Project With Project
Buses
MV's-19%
+14%
-35%
Dario Hidalgo study for CSE, 2008 Mimeo
• Overall average travel time reduce by 19%
• For bus users travel time has improved by 35%
• For personal vehicles travel time has improved by 14%
• Journey speed for bus users: 19-21 km/hour
• Cars and two-wheelers: 14-18 km/hour
36Distribution of wait time @ Chirag Delhi
junction - People
68%
32%
MotorisedVehiclesBuses
Distribution of wait time @ Chirag Delhi junction - Vehicles
4%
96%
MotorisedVehiclesBuses
Calculation based on Webster’s Delay Formula for Signalized Intersections
One Leg
Chirag Delhi Junction
Morning Peak Hour
Ambedkar Nagar to Moolchand
53.0 Vehicle-Hours
164.8 Person-Hours
Source: Dario Hidalgo study for CSE, 2008 Mimeo
37
Pedestrian walkway in BRT corridor best amongst all ….
-Well designed and well surfaced. - Minimum width 1.5 metre -- goes upto 3.5 meter to 4 meters- Sidewalks easily negotiable by women, children and senior citizens - Disabled friendly- Relatively clean, well maintained, and continuous. - At-grade-crosswalk facilities with zebra crossings and pelican signals- Intersections are well designed and paved with speed tables as traffic calming - Crossings are easily accessible with kerbed ramps. - At grade crossings comfortable for old, disabled and visually impaired.
There is still room for improvement to make cross walk facilities safer etc.
38
Look at the rest of Delhi….
39
0
3
0 0
1
2 2
0
1
0 0 0 0 0 00
1
2
3
4
Nu
mb
er
of
Fa
tal A
cc
ide
nts
April 2008 to June 2009: Fatal accidents show a
declining trend
According to reports of Delhi Police, there were 8 fatalities during the first 10 months since the opening of the corridor. This drops significantly thereafter.
There are still scope of improvement……-- Ensure safe crossings (preferably at grade); -- Better management of the bus operations to reduce spill-over at the stations
Impact on user safety
40
The next question: Can we have dedicated bus corridor on the left side? No.
Simple Common sense…..• Left side has all the openings • Left side is encroached– hawkers, stands for autos
and taxis• Breakdown vehicles are taken to the left side• Side lanes cannot perform at the same speed.
Cannot have barricaded dedicated corridors on the left.
• Delhi already has painted bus lanes. It does not work. It has not worked anywhere in the world.
If not BRT, what other options do you have? Other governments are proposing restraints on personal vehicles use.. But not possible without alternatives……
Other governments are enforcing tax and road pricing measures and caps on car sales to reduce congestion and pollution…
Congestion charges: -- London: This has reduced traffic delays by 30 per cent. -- Seven European cities are adopting congestion charges. -- Trondheim, Norway: peak hour traffic dropped by 10% after the introduction of congestion charges.-- Singapore’s road pricing measures: This reduced percentage of commuters entering central areas from 56% to 23%.
Caps on cars in Singapore and Shanghai:-- Shanghai has adopted a system of auctioning a limited number of car licenses per month. This has helped the city to cap car registration at not more than 7,500 cars per month -- or 250 cars per day.
Such measures require good public transport system…..Different public transport systems will compliment each other: BRT is cheaper to build: Rs 10-20 crore/km. Metro carries more people: Rs 100-300 crore/kmDelhi needs all this and fast…Very fast..
42
Delhi has witnessed support …..
Editorial in Economic Times 22 Dec 2008: “…. We certainly need more BRT corridors in the Capital and other cities pan-India for hassle-free commuting. The BRT corridor can indeed be faulted for improper initial planning and botched implementation. But the idea of dedicated bus lanes to cope with and better manage heavy passenger traffic is unexceptionable. Also, the electorate in Delhi has given the thumbs up to BRT, with voters along the corridor enthusiastically re-electing Sheila Dikshit’s Congress government.….”
NDTV polls brought out majority support for the BRT project
…. And so on….
Public debate helps…..BRT is a communication challenge….
…..Give Delhi the chance to build public transport
43
Familiar sight?Taipei
~60km of BRTCreating more space for public transport
Photos: Jason Chang, 2002
Cities are moving away from car centric infrastructure……….
45
No other way ahead….
Public transport is the only way out of Delhi’s pollution and congestion nightmare…
BRT is an evolving concept. Improve the operation of the corridorPre-requisite infrastructure is in place.Improve reliability, comfort and safety of buses and the quality of bus services. Timely arrival of buses, low variability with good speeds and less
intervals. Need shorter signal timing and better signal synchronization to ensure more people are move on the corridor and quickly. Dedicated facilities for different road users, including pedestrians and bicyclists, need to be preserved. Any compromise on their right of way will
erode bus ridership and hurt the integrity of the corridor. Prevent motorised vehicles using the bicycle facilities
Bus Rapid Transport is the public transport option. Needs support. Must not be allowed to fail..
Otherwise what???
46
Blue print for the future….Blue print for the future….
Thank you ………Thank you ………