A Prototype Prediction Market Game for Enhancing Knowledge Sharing among Salespeople

Hajime Mizuyama

A Prototype Prediction Market Game for

Enhancing Knowledge Sharing among Salespeople

Hajime Mizuyama & Kazuto Yamamiya

Aoyama Gakuin University

[email protected]

ISAGA 2014 7/July/2014

Hajime Mizuyama

Competitive atmosphere

• In a company running a BtoB business, such as IT system integration, orders

are usually obtained through negotiations with customer companies.

• The mission of its sales division is

– to keep winning an appropriate number

of orders through negotiations

– to accurately forecast the total number

of orders to be achieved

Research background

Information and knowledge sharing in the division


Hajime Mizuyama

• In a company running a BtoB business, such as IT system integration, orders

are usually obtained through negotiations with customer companies.

• The mission of its sales division is

– to keep winning an appropriate number

of orders through negotiations

– to accurately forecast the total number

of orders to be achieved

– to foster collaborative atmosphere

in the division

Research background


Collaborative atmosphere

Hajime Mizuyama

The objective of this research is to develop a serious gaming approach using

prediction markets for motivating truthful information and knowledge sharing

and thereby fostering collaborative environments in a sales division.

• Reward the members of the division for providing

valuable information or knowledge truthfully.

• Properly forecast the probability of winning a sales

negotiation based on the information provided.

• Improve/control the probability of winning a sales

negotiation based on the knowledge provided.

Research objective

Hajime Mizuyama

• Research background and objective

• Problem setting

• What are prediction markets?

• Proposed game design

• Preliminary experiments and their results

• Conclusions

Agenda

Hajime Mizuyama

Problem setting

Sales division

Sales negotiation 1

Sales negotiation 3

Sales negotiation 2

Sales negotiation 4

Hajime Mizuyama

Forecast accurately the probability of winning the negotiation.

Improve/control the probability of winning the negotiation.

Collaborative information/knowledge acquisition and sharing

Problem setting

Sales negotiation 1

Owner

Other participants

Hajime Mizuyama


• Problem setting




• Conclusions

Agenda

Hajime Mizuyama

An ordinal prediction market setting

Central Market Maker (LMSR)

Market prices

= Probabilities of being elected

Candidate A

Candidate B

Candidate C

WTA securities

A fixed posterior payoff only for

the elected candidate

Bid and ask orders

Hajime Mizuyama

Automated market maker LMSR by R. Hanson (2003)

N

i

i bQbC1

/explog)(Q

)()(Cost QqQ CC

N

j

j

i

i

i

bQ

bQ

dQ

dCp

1

/exp

/exp)(Q

Nu

mb

er o

f se

c.：Q

Cost function

How much to charge for buying Δq

Unitary price of ith security

Whole numbers sold so far

Un

itar

y p

rice：p

Candidates

Candidates

Hajime Mizuyama


• Problem setting




• Conclusions

Agenda

Hajime Mizuyama

Outline of proposed system


Bid/ask orders Market prices

= Probabilities of whether it will be won or lost

Win

Lose

Win/Lose securities

A fixed posterior payoff is given only for that corresponding to the actual outcome.

Owner Other participants

pri

ce

Hajime Mizuyama

Outline of proposed system


Bid/ask orders & Comments Market prices

= Probabilities of whether it will be won or lost Comments

= Grounds for the prediction

Win

Lose

Win/Lose securities

A fixed posterior payoff is given only for that corresponding to the actual outcome. Highly evaluated comments are also rewarded.

Owner Other participants

comment comment comment comment comment comment comment comment

Provide basic information. Set initial prices for the securities. Answer questions (Q&A function to be introduced).

pri

ce

Hajime Mizuyama

Collection and evaluation of comments

Win Lose

It will be effective to change the sales strategy such that…

It will be effective to modify the proposal such that …

The proposal does not seem competitive because …

The competitor A has a stronger connection with the customer.

Buy shares Buy shares

Hajime Mizuyama


Win Lose



The customer will accept our offer because …



Buy 3 shares Buy shares

Hajime Mizuyama


Win Lose







✔

2

Hajime Mizuyama


Win Lose







Hajime Mizuyama


Win Lose

Un

con

tro

llab

le

Co

ntr

olla

ble

A competitor has decided to withdraw their proposal.

If the owner does this, the probability will increase.

A new company had decided to enter the competition.

If the owner does not do this, the probability will remain low.

Hajime Mizuyama

Posterior wealth

= Payoff from owned security

− Cost of buying security

+ Revenue from selling security

Comment contribution

Game scores

= evaluation counts of comment 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑟

Hajime Mizuyama


• Problem setting




• Conclusions

Agenda

Hajime Mizuyama

• Participants were 6 undergraduate students in Aoyama Gakuin University.

• Only fixed participation fee, no additional monetary incentive depending on

the game score, is provided.

• Simple either-or problems:

– Red-and-white-ball setting

– Imaginary sales negotiation scenario

• Before a game session started, the players were secretly provided different

information. Then, they enjoyed the session for about 15 min.

• Market game sessions with and without the comment system are compared.

Experimental setting

Hajime Mizuyama

Red-and-white-ball setting

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Number of transactions

赤証券

白証券

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40


赤証券

白証券

Wit

ho

ut

com

men

t sy

stem

W

ith

co

mm

en

t sy

stem

Pri

ce

Pri

ce

Red White

Red White

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43


赤証券

白証券

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13


赤証券

白証券

Pri

ce

Pri

ce

Red White

Red White

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34


赤証券

白証券

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14


赤証券

白証券

Pri

ce

Pri

ce

Red White

Red White

Hajime Mizuyama

Imaginary sales negotiation scenario

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45


60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14


With comment system Without comment system

Win Lose

Win Lose

Pri

ce

Pri

ce

Hajime Mizuyama

Without comment system

With comment system

Red-and-white-ball #1 14 42



Imaginary sales negotiation scenario

14 46

Average 13.75 41.50

Number of transactions in each game session

Hajime Mizuyama


• Problem setting




• Conclusions

Agenda

Hajime Mizuyama

• A prediction market game with a comment system is proposed for enhancing

information and knowledge sharing among the salespeople of a company.

• A simple prototype of the game is developed and preliminary laboratory

experiments using it found that the comment system activates transactions

and hence the frequencies of sharing information and knowledge.

• Further experiments are necessary for properly evaluating the game and

identifying how to improve it.

• It is also an important challenge how to capture the relationships among the

comments, for example, by introducing gIBIS structure.

Conclusions

Thank you for your kind attention!

Questions and comments are welcome.

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A Prototype Prediction Market Game for Enhancing Knowledge Sharing among Salespeople