Energy Policy & LED -- GZ LED Forum Jun 2010

LED Lighting Market Strategies Under New U.S. Energy Policies

Mark [email protected]

June 11, 2010

http://seminar.ledinside.com/LEDforumChina/2010/US/

Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 3

Outline

• Introduction• U.S. Energy policies/organizations

– EISA 2007– U.S. Department of Energy Programs– U.S. EPA Energy Star– NGO Programs– Government & NGO Rebates

• Impact & Strategies• Summary


Lighting Used To Be A Lot Easier…

• Used a lot of energy, but…– Color was perfect,

never changed– CRI was perfect,

nobody ever questioned it

– Price was very low– When it burned out,

you threw it away…


Then Things Began To Get Complicated…

• Saved some energy, but…– First CFLs

(1990’s) had poor color…

– …buzzed– …flickered– …did not start

instantly– …would not dim– Cost >10x

standard– Contained >5mg

of mercury


LEDs to the Rescue?

Poor Quality LEDs

Poor Optical Control Poor Thermal Design

Poor Application

Poor Implementation

What Where They Thinking…?


LED Marketing…

Cree MR16 volume in 2009: 0

Cree does not even

make MR16 lamps!!!

240 lm

150 lm


More LED Marketing…

Description This is one of our brightest MR16 LED available today. It is 1x MR16 bulb with 3 x 1 watt CREE LED that can fit your 12 volt halogen fixture. LED bulbs are compatible with all types of magnetic transformers but not all electronic transformers. Many electronic transformers require a minimum load which is greater than that provided by LED bulbs. LED bulbs will usually not work properly (no light output, flickering, and strobing) in fixtures that have integral electronic transformers in each fixture. We recommend changing the power LED power supply which can be purchase in our website. In addition, many standard Track Light power supplies will produce voltages as high as 16 with little or no load (LED bulbs provide little load). You must make sure that the voltage of your existing power supply does not exceed 14 Volts with the LED bulbs installed. This bulb has a frosted lens so it evenly disperses the light, so there are no "hot spots" in the light pattern. Why LED? Last up to 100,000 hours (or about ten years) Withstand shocks, vibrations, frequent switching and temperature extremes that rapidly incapacitate fragile incandescent lamps Reduction of maintenance costs Decrease of electric costs by up to 90% Low heat generation Variety of colors available Wide range of voltage applications Unlike Fluorescents, LED lights are compatible with all dimmers and FET switches like XXX and XXXX Bulb Type: MR16 3 x 1 Watt CREE LED Life time: 20,000 Hours Color: White (6000K) View Angle: 38 Deg Light output: 240 Lumen Operating Voltage: 12 V AC / DC Consumption: 3.4 Watt Product Diameter: 1.96" or 50 mm Product Length: 1.9" or 48 mm

• Three Year Lamp Warranty • Easy Installation Using Existing Socket • LED Operating Life: 50,000+ hrs (5.7+ years) • Solid-State, Fast Turn On, No Power Surge • High Shock / Vibration Resistant • Major Power Savings • Reduces Light Pollution • Voltages Available 12/14V, 24/28V, 120VAC, 240VAC • Major Reduction in Heat Generation • Wide choice of colors & infrared • Moisture resistant

LM-80 is undefined

for 5mm LED lamps!!

LEDs Cure Wrinkles!!


The Consumer is Confused…

• “…I know this one saves energy, but…– Will I like the color?

– Will my face, food, fabric look natural?

– Will it buzz or flicker like the old ones?

– Is it worth the extra cost?

– Will it hurt my family?

• Are LEDs any better?– How can I know?”


…And the Consumer is Never Going to Understand the Technology…

Au n-con

n-GaNInGaN MQW

SiMirror

p-GaN

Au-Sn p-con

Bond metal

5000K

4000K

3000K

WA

WB

WC

WD

WJ

WE

WF

WG

WH

WK

WM

WN

WP

5700K

7000K

8300K

6350K

10000K

3500K

2700K

4500K

3A

3B

3C

3D4A

4B

4C

4D

5A

5B

5C

5D

6C

6D

6A

6B

7C

7D7A

7B

8C

8D8A

8B

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.30

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.40

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.45

0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49

CCx

CCy

BBL

Cool White

Neutral White

Warm White


The U.S. Government is Here to Help: EISA 2007

• Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007–Eliminates the manufacture of >150W to <500W probe-start metal halide magnetic ballasted fixtures starting in 2009

–Severely restricts the manufactureor import of most common general-service incandescent lamps beginning 2012 (exemptions apply), and

–Establishes incentivesto develop an LED product that can replace the 60W incandescent

These Power Utilities Will Support L-Prize


U.S. Department of Energy Programs


Original U.S. EPA Energy Star Program

• Household appliances

• Computer systems, servers

• Exclusively focused on energy savings

http://www.zimbio.com/go/338jx7gL0Vy/http:/www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00165TATA/?tag=digicame09-20


Energy Star for Integral Lamps

• Minimum efficacy: 50/55 LPW (<10W/≥10W)• Minimum lumens: Varies by thermally

stabilized “wattage equivalent”

• Minimum CRI: 75, R9 > 0

• Lumen Maintenance (L70): 25,000 hours

• CCT: 2700 K, 3000 K, 3500 K, or 4000 K• Duv tolerances: per ANSI C78.377-2008• Power Factor: >0.7 for lamps ≥5W• Intensity distribution:

– Less than 80% of total flux in the 0° to 60° zone and at least 20% of total flux above 90°

• Dimming NOT required (very desired)• Must provide:

– IES LM-79-2008, sec 10 goniophotometer report

– IES LM-80-2008 report on LEDs used

• Restrictions on “product equivalency” marketing claims, must use “Lighting Facts” label

• Warranty: 3-years

Wattage Equivalent Lumens


NGOs Helping Also…

• Education• Product

screening/recommendation

• Market development


Government & Power Company Rebates

• Utilities, Power Agencies and State Wide Programs

• Rebates can range from $15 per fixture to $50 per fixture

• Requirements by the state utility commissions to reduce peak demand and consumption in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors

• PGE, PECO, First Energy, Efficiency Vermont, Clean Energy NJ, NYSERDA , etc.


Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #1

1. Drive Performance and Cost Roadmaps

US Department of Energy 2010 Multi-Year Plan for SSL


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cree Performance RoadmapC

W L

um

en

s/w

att

CFL

LED

Fluorescent

HIDHigh Volume Production

161 LPW

131 LPW 3 yrs

R&D Capability

186 LPW

208 LPW

Incandescent

XR-E

XR-E

XP-E

XP-G

Theoretical maximum for LED


XLamp® XM-L LED

• Revolutionary flux & efficacy:– Up to 160 lm, 160 LPW @ 350 mA– Up to 750 lm, 110 LPW @ 2A– Typical Targets : 145 lm @350mA ; 675

lm @2A

• Proven design similar to XP:– Lighting-Class, small optical source

size– ~2ºC/W RTH, isolated thermal pad

– Vf= ~2.9 @ 350mA

• Timeline:– June 2010: Engineering samples,

Preliminary Datasheet, Optical Model– Late 3Q 2010: Commercial availability

5.0 mm

5.0 mm

XLamp XM-

L

XLamp XP-

E

XM-L

XP-G

XP-E

XM-L

XP-G

XP-E


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Volume $/lumen

XLamp Cost Trend

XR-E 80 lumens

XP-G 130 lumens

XR-E 100 lumens

Normalized $/lumen over 4 years

• >88% reduction in $/lumen (65% LPW improvement)

• 100’s of Millions of XLamp power die

• Driven by brightness, package and process improvements &

volume

Standard 6000K Cool White Benchmark

XR 7090 59 lumens

XP-E 110 lumens

XP-E 120 lumens



2. Drive Quality• Minimum efficacy: 50/55 LPW (<10W/≥10W)• Minimum lumens: Varies by thermally

stabilized “wattage equivalent”

• Minimum CRI: 75, R9 > 0

• Lumen Maintenance (L70): 25,000 hours

• CCT: 2700 K, 3000 K, 3500 K, or 4000 K• Duv tolerances: per ANSI C78.377-2008• Power Factor: >0.7 for lamps ≥5W• Intensity distribution:

– Less than 80% of total flux in the 0° to 60° zone and at least 20% of total flux above 90°

• Dimming NOT required (very desired)• Must provide:

– IES LM-79-2008, sec 10 goniophotometer report

– IES LM-80-2008 report on LEDs used

• Restrictions on “product equivalency” marketing claims, must use “Lighting Facts” label

• Warranty: 3-years

Wattage Equivalent Lumens


3. Drive Standards

IES-LM-80-08 IES-LM-79-08 ANSI C78.377-2008



Impact on Binning…

2010

2007

2009

2006

ANSI C78.377-2008 3000K Quadrangle

Prediction



4. Drive Break-through Product Developments

• LED Component for LRP-38 Lamp

• EZBright Chip Platform• EZBright chips used in the XLamp component family


5. Education and Purchasing Behavior

ENERGY STAR SSL Quality Advocates:

ENERGY STAR Partners:




6. Market Acceleration

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2007 Lighting Forecast*




Global High Brightness LED for General Illumination Market

$US

D,

Bil

lio

ns

* Strategies Unlimited


Summary

• U.S. Government and non-government energy programs have had a very positive impact on the Solid State Lighting market

• Specifically, these programs have helped drive:– …Performance and cost roadmaps

– …Awareness and necessity for quality in SSL

– …Standards creation and implementation

– …Break-through product developments

– …Education and shaping of purchase behaviors

• The result has been measureable market acceleration, andReal Energy avings

pg. 28Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc.