Epic research special report of 22 mar 2016

DAILY REPORT 22

nd MARCH 2016

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Global markets at a glance European shares closed lower on Monday, with weaker commodity stocks more than offsetting gains in Bayer and Telecom Italia. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 0.25 percent, while the euro zone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index was down by 0.36%. The FTSEurofirst 300 index remains down by around 7% since the start of 2016. Asian stocks wobbled on Tuesday as hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials stoked uncertainty about policy makers' intentions less than a week after Fed Chair Janet Yellen had set out a more cautious path to rate in-creases this year. The dollar got a mild boost from the sug-gestion that US monetary policy could be tightened sooner rather than later. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged down 0.1%, after all three US stock indexes marked small gains overnight. Japan's Nikkei stock index added 2%, reopening after a public holiday on Monday and getting a tailwind from a weaker yen. Wall Street closed little changed on Monday as investors searched for fresh catalysts and showed concerns about fully-extended share prices after a five-week rally. The ses-sion, which closed slightly higher and opened slightly lower, followed a market-friendly move by the US Federal Reserve last week that pushed the S&P 500 and Dow into positive territory for the year. Previous day Roundup Equity benchmarks surged more than 1% on Monday, with sentiment buoyed by consistent inflows of foreign money and recovery in European markets. Another reason for smart rally could be hopes of a rate cut in the upcoming RBI monetary policy meet that is scheduled to be held on April 5. The Sensex spiked 332.63pts or 1.33% to 25285.37 and Nifty rose 99.90pts or 1.31% to 7704.25. The broader mar-kets also gained strength with the BSE Midcap and Small-cap indices rising 1.4% each. FII have bought more than Rs 1,700cr worth of shares last Friday, when the Sensex rallied 275pts. So far in March, they made purchases of more than Rs 12,000cr while domestic institutional investors sold nearly Rs 8,000cr worth of shares. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [up 203.11pts], Capital Goods [up 250.48Pts], PSU [up 72.98pts], FMCG [up 125.10Pts], Realty [up 21.06pts], Power [up 10.77pts], Auto [up 206.91Pts], Healthcare [up 172.74Pts], IT [up 52.36pts], Metals [up 22.15Pts], TECK [up 36.16pts], Oil& Gas [up 106.44pts].

World Indices

Index Value % Change

D J l 17623.87 +0.12

S&P 500 2051.60 0.10

NASDAQ 4808.87 +0.28

FTSE 100 6184.58 -0.08

Nikkei 225 17061.79 +2.01

Hong Kong 20622.44 -0.30

Top Gainers

Company CMP Change % Chg

AMBUJACEM 231.85 9.80 4.41

ULTRACEMCO 3,225.95 115.30 3.71

BOSCHLTD 19,420.05 645.95 3.44

HINDUNILVR 877.00 28.65 3.38

SBIN 197.00 5.75 3.01

Top Losers


ASIANPAINT 855.60 19.75 -2.26

LUPIN 1,532.20 22.20 -1.43

BHEL 111.90 1.50 -1.32

COALINDIA 296.00 1.75 -0.59

GAIL 362.55 1.80 -0.49

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH

Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg

ASHOKLEY 103.10 5.80 5.96

JSWSTEEL 1,219.25 6.35 0.52

NHPC 22.40 0.15 0.67

RAMCOCEM 424.00 22.25 5.54

RAMKY 76.95 -4.05 -5.00

SHREEPUSHK 127.40 4.50 3.66

SUPREMEIND 791.00 -0.55 -0.07

TTKPRESTIG 4,900.05 704.55 16.79

Indian Indices


NIFTY 7704.25 +99.90 +1.31

SENSEX 25285.37 +332.63 +1.33

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW

Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg

GLOBOFFS 231.10 -10.00 -4.15

LUPIN 1,532.20 -22.20 -1.43

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DAILY REPORT 22

nd MARCH 2016


STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] 3. SPARC

we saw mix movement in Pharma share but midcap faced profit booking on rise. In last session SPARC cross strong resistance of 299 but around 305 due to profit booking it slipped and end with inverted hammer so we advise to sell it below 295 for target of 288 280 with strict SL of 300.10 MACRO NEWS Consolidation of PSBs likely to begin in 2017 Aim to increase mkt share in home loans to 60%: In-

diabulls Hsg Domino’s Pizza, Indian Railways to double e-catering ser-

vice footprint Mahindra Group eyes $1 billion revenue from diesel gen-

erators in 6 years Cummins to put Rs 1,000 crore in India research & devel-

opment unit expansion Rs 6,300 crore business hit in Tamil Nadu,Puducherry

due to strike Rosneft's $25bn debt seen rising after Essar deal Cabinet note soon on linkage auction for power plants Ratnagiri, GMR GVK, Lanco, others successful in natural

gas auction Bulk drug exports to grow 12-14% till 2018-19: Assocham HC to resume hearing on pharma cos' pleas against Cen-

tre's order Cut in small savings rates 'win-win' for govt, banks JSW Energy; Jindal Steel & Power -Jindal brothers near

USD 782 million power plant deal Tata Sons buy 92.4 lakh shares (1 percent equity) from

Tata Global Beverages for Rs 312 cr Maruti Suzuki to provide Rs 90,000 rebate to early S

Cross buyers Rolta India: S&P downgrades long term rating to B+ from

BB-

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. SKSMICRO [FUTURE]

After union budget of FY 2016-2017 NBFC is not performing good and trading in fix range for that SKSMICRO finance cre-ate reverse island candle pattern on EOD chart which resis-tance has 545 and the support at 512 since after last closing which is doji candle it will be good to sell around 538-540 with strict stop loss of 545.50 for target of 530 515 2. SRF [FUTURE]

On daily chart SRF future given breakout of pennant pattern despite of that it is getting strong supply at 1235 and in out of last five session last at Monday it given closing near at 1230 with bullish hammer for that we may see a 2-3 per cent bounce above 1235 so we advise to buy it above 1240 for target of 1255 1270 1300 with strict stop loss of 1215


DAILY REPORT 22

nd MARCH 2016


FUTURE & OPTION

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION

Symbol Op-

tion

Type

Strike

Price

LTP Traded

Volume

(Contracts)

Open

Interest

NIFTY CE 7,700 72.85 4,70,771 59,54,850

NIFTY CE 7,600 141.25 3,09,148 46,48,425

BANKNIFTY CE 16,000 157.65 1,00,318 9,35,850

SBIN CE 200 2.60 6,590 59,58,000

ASHOKLEY CE 105 1.60 6,516 53,27,000

LUPIN CE 1,600 24.90 5,254 4,94,100

LT CE 1,220 27.30 3,567 2,69,100

ASHOKLEY CE 100 4.30 3,464 40,32,000

MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION

Symbol Op-

tion

Type

Strike

Price

LTP Traded

Volume

(Contracts)

Open

Interest

NIFTY PE 7,600 29.50 4,68,862 53,75,625

NIFTY PE 7,500 14.50 4,08,082 56,57,600

BANKNIFTY PE 15,500 63.20 91,854 6,22,770

LUPIN PE 1,500 32.40 3,435 2,16,900

SBIN PE 190 1.55 2,852 26,58,000

SBIN PE 180 0.40 2,221 35,62,000

LT PE 1,200 7.20 2,203 2,23,200

RELAINCE PE 1,020 5.60 1,904 4,76,000

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS

BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY SELL

No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES 61152 3454.34 58291 3203.45 349349 19668.47 250.90

INDEX OPTIONS 555462 30835.28 569792 31438.44 1558990 88680.11 -603.15

STOCK FUTURES 72208 3418.19 74126 3496.06 1047586 48429.10 -77.88

STOCK OPTIONS 51477 2421.15 52645 2472.16 92639 4322.95 -51.01

TOTAL -481.14

STOCKS IN NEWS BHEL starts second 270MW thermal unit in Punjab PFS sanctions Rs 1,100-crore loans for power sector 2% price cut to weigh on margins: Asian Paints chief Bharti Airtel signs pact with American Tower Corp for

sale of Tanzania Tower portfolio Rolta India: S&P downgrades long term rating to B+

from B NTPC commissions unit-I of 250 MW Nabinagar ther-

mal power station Rolta India : S&P downgrades long term rating to B+

from BB NIFTY FUTURE

Nifty in last trading session were bullish all the day. Though in middle of the session it consolidated between a range but took a bull run in closing hours and finally closed with a strong bullish candle on daily charts. Now Nifty has resistance around 7720 means o current levels. So we advise you to buy if it on dips around 7650 for the targets of 7720 and 7800 with strict stop loss of 7540

INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2

NIFTY 7,775.00 7,740.00 7,678.00 7,643.00 7,581.00

BANKNIFTY 16,079.00 16,002.00 15,869.00 15,792.00 15,659.00


DAILY REPORT 22

nd MARCH 2016


RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD

TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD ABOVE 29000 TARGET 29700 29820 SL 29480 SELL GOLD BELOW 28800 TARGET 29080 28950 SL 29300 SILVER

TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER ABOVE 37900 TARGET 38490 38790 SL 38000 SELL SILVER BELOW 37600 TARGET 37800 37500 SL 37300

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold prices declined by Rs 84 to Rs 29,325 per 10 grams due to speculative selling after weak global cues. At MCX gold for delivery in far-month June shed Rs 84, or 0.29%, to Rs 29,325 per ten grams in a business turnover of 52 lots. In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in April fell by Rs 82, or 0.28%, to Rs 29,049 per ten grams in 737 lots. Fall in metal's prices at futures trade was mostly in tandem with global trend as the dollar stabilised after a slump sparked by the Fed lowering its interest-rate outlook for this year. Glob-ally, gold fell 0.40% to $1,250.99 an ounce in Singapore. Crude oil slid for a second session on Monday, falling fur-ther from last week's 2016 highs on concerns over a supply glut after the U.S rig count rose for the first time since De-cember. US crude dropped 55 cents, or 1.4%, to $38.89 a barrel by 0156 GMT. The market on Friday climbed to $41.20 a barrel, its highest since early Dec, before losing ground to settle down nearly 2% at $39.44. Brent crude's front-month contract was down 33 cents at $40.87. It hit a high of $42.54 a barrel in the last session. Global oversupply in oil had knocked crude prices down from mid-2014 highs above $100 a barrel to 12-year lows earlier this year, taking Brent to around $27 and US crude to about $26. Copper opened on a weak note in domestic markets but the recovery has been noted as the day has progressed. The prices of Copper are now extending the gains and have been trading at Rs 339 per kg, up 0.44%. Copper futures have tested a high of Rs 339.40 per kg and a low of Rs 335.85 per kg. CoT report holds significance for the prices of Copper was released last week. The long positions of Mer-chants were 24134 on 15 March 2016 against 20786 on 7 Feb 2016, while short positions increased by 4549 to 64357 on 15 March 2016 against 59808 on 7 March 2016. Overall the net positions in case of merchants are favoring shorts by 40223. The total long positions of Copper for the one week period ending 15 March 2016 was 43814 compared to 47964 on 07 March 2016. Short position of Copper money managers decreased by 363 to 19770 on 15 March 2016 against 20133 on 7 March 2016. India imposed quality standards on steel products sold in the country on Thursday, but delayed bringing auto-grade steel imported by car makers under the ambit of the new order by six months. Indian car makers import about 1 mil-lion tonnes of high-tensile steel annually, mainly from Japan and South Korea, and had sought an extension to avoid dis-ruption in production. Quality standards for all steel prod-ucts, except auto-grade steel, will come into effect on March 18.


DAILY REPORT 22

nd MARCH 2016


NCDEX

NCDEX INDICES

Index Value % Change

CHANA 4366 +0.69

CORIANDER 6632 +1.34

COTTON SEED 2179 -0.41

GUAR SEED 3183 +1.43

JEERA 15335 +2.85

MUSTARDSEED 3959 +1.88

SOY BEAN 3958 +4.00

SUGAR M GRADE 3433 -0.06

TURMERIC 8890 +0.91

WHEAT 1561 -0.45

RECOMMENDATIONS

DHANIYA

BUY CORIANDER APR ABOVE 6750 TARGET 6795 6945 SL

BELOW 6685

SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6620 TARGET 6575 6425 SL

ABOVE 6685

GUARGUM

BUY GUARGUM APRIL ABOVE 5670 TARGET 5720 5790 SL

BELOW 5610

SELL GUARGUM APRIL BELOW 5590 TARGET 5540 5470 SL

ABOVE 5650

Chana futures surges in local mandies due to strong festive demand coupled with limited supplies in local mandies. The sources stated that millers have reported strong demand in local mandies to cater the festival demand. Moreover, lim-ited supplies from Australia and domestic mandies in states like Rajasthan and Maharashtra have added some in chana prices. The NCDEX April futures augmented by 1.01 percent to close at Rs 4380 per quintal. The NCDEX futures reduced by 3.70 percent in open interest reported some short cover-ing by traders.

Sugar production in the sugar season 2015-16 is expected to fall further against an earlier estimate of apex industry body Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). The association today said production is likely to fall by 9% from last year's actual production of 28.3 million tonnes which comes to 25.5 million tonnes. Last month ISMA had revised the esti-mate for current year sugar production to 26 million ton-nes. Compared to that exports are picking up due to recov-ery in international sugar prices. 1.4 million tonnes have already been contracted for exports and another 5-6 lakh tonnes exports is possible which could take total sugar ex-ports to 2 million tonnes during the season. International prices have recovered in last one month by 25% and trading at $15.9/ LB. during the period local price- New Mumbai Vashi delivery sugar price of NCDEX went up 4% to Rs.3333 per quintal.

Mango output this year is expected to decline by 10-15 per cent because of crop damage from recent unseasonal rain. However, this is unlikely to affect prices. Lasting a little over two days, the inclement weather is reported to have damaged mango bulbs and flowers in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra.


DAILY REPORT 22

nd MARCH 2016


RBI Reference Rate

Currency Rate Currency Rate

Rupee- $ 66.5040 Yen-100 59.6600

Euro 74.9168 GBP 95.8722

CURRENCY

USD/INR

BUY USD/INR MAR ABOVE 66.62 TARGET 66.75 66.9 SL BE-

LOW 66.42

SELL USD/INR MAR BELOW 66.52 TARGET 66.39 66.24 SL

ABOVE 66.72

EUR/INR

BUY EUR/INR MAR ABOVE 75.3 TARGET 75.45 75.65 SL BE-

LOW 75.1

SELL EUR/INR MAR BELOW 74.9 TARGET 74.75 74.55 SL

ABOVE 75.1

CURRENCY MARKET UPDATES: The Indian rupee snaps its three day winning streak and closed lower on Monday. On the afternoon deal, the rupee was trading a tad strong at 66.48 on increased selling of the US currency by exporters and banks amid sustained foreign fund inflows. In the international markets, US dol-lar continues to struggle against the basket of currencies. On the macroeconomic side, US consumer confidence readings (measured by the University of Michigan survey) fell almost 2 points to 90. On Monday, the home currency closed at 66.53/$, down 3 paise from its previous close of 66.50/$ on Friday. The local unit had hit a high of 66.46 and a low of 66.62. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) refer-ence rate for the dollar stood at 66.50 and for Euro stood at 74.91. The RBI’s reference rate for the Yen stood at 59.66; reference rate for the Great Britain Pound (GBP) stood at 95.8722. The US dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on Monday, recovering from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy statement and no major U.S. economic re-ports to be released throughout the day. The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 95.25, off Friday's five-month low of 94.61. Dollar weakened broadly last week after the Federal Reserve said that it is likely to raise interest rates only twice this year - and not four times, as initially estimated. Fed policymakers said the U.S. economy faces risks from an uncertain global economy, although moderate growth and strong job gains would al-low it to tighten policy this year. The European unit was steady at 1.1272 versus the green-back. The single common currency came under pressure after European Central Bank Chief Economist Peter Praet said on Friday that euro zone interest rates could go even lower. USD/JPY was little changed at 111.51. Markets in Japan were to remain closed for a national holiday. As against the pound, dollar was higher with GBP/USD down 0.62% at 1.4394. The pound weakened after Ian Duncan Smith, U.K. Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and a big voice in the Conservative party, unexpectedly an-nounced his resignation late Friday over disagreements on a budget he considers to be “deeply unfair”.


DAILY REPORT 22

nd MARCH 2016


Date Commodity/ Currency

Pairs Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark

21/03/16 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. BUY 5550 5600-56570 5490 NOT EXECUTED

21/03/16 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. SELL 5350 5300-5230 5410 BOOKED PROFIT

21/03/16 NCDEX GUARGUM MAR. BUY 6780 6825-6975 6715 BOOKED FULL PROFIT

21/03/16 NCDEX GUARGUM MAR. SELL 6520 6475-6325 6585 NOT EXECUTED

21/03/16 MCX GOLD APR. BUY 29450 29550-29680 29320 NOT EXECUTED

21/03/16 MCX GOLD APR. SELL 29000 28900-28780 29125 NOT EXECUTED

21/03/16 MCX SILVER MAR. BUY 38590 38790-39100 39350 NOT EXECUTED

21/03/16 MCX SILVER MAR. SELL 37575 37575-37075 37800 NOT EXECUTED

Date Scrip

CASH/

FUTURE/

OPTION

Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark

21/03/16 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 7610 7700-7800 7450 BOOKED PROFIT

21/03/16 BPCL FUTURE SELL 859-863 850-830 870 SL TRIGGERED

21/03/16 BEL FUTURE BUY 1110 1125-1160 1098 BOOKED FULL PROFIT

21/03/16 RUSHIL CASH BUY 200 215-230 190 SL TRIGGERED


DAILY REPORT 22

nd MARCH 2016


NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

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TIME REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL CONSENSUS

FORECAST PREVIOUS

MONDAY, MARCH 21

8:30 AM CHICAGO FED NATIONAL ACTIVITY FEB. -- 0.28

10 AM EXISTING HOME SALES FEB. 5.30 MLN 5.47 MLN

TUESDAY, MARCH 22

NONE SCHEDULED

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 23

10 AM NEW HOME SALES FEB. 523,000 494,000

THURSDAY, MARCH 24

8:30 AM WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS 3/19 N/A N/A

8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FEB. -2.7% 4.9%

8:30 AM CORE CAPITAL EQUIPMENT ORDERS FEB. -0.5% 3.9%

9:45 AM MARKIT PMI FLASH MARCH -- 51.3

FRIDAY, MARCH 25

8:30 AM GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Q4 0.8% 1.0% (Q4)


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Epic research special report of 22 mar 2016