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How many times have you said to yourself, sitting in the wasteland aftermath of a poorly estimated project that exploded all over you: "Why does this seem so _hard_?" Well, it's true. Estimating the work that goes into a project is a difficult task, made _more_ difficult if your estimates are rendered in TIME, a concept the client understands all too well. Join me on a romp through all the reasons why _not_ to estimate in time and a refreshing alternative, taken straight from the pages of the Agile Development movement.
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Estimating AccuratelyWhy is this so hard? (!?!)
The Simple Facts
Estimating tasks by time is RISKY...
No way to accurately predict the future, even immediately.
No GUARANTEE that even closely similar tasks will take the same time.
No two workers ALWAYS take the same amount of time to complete a task.
The Simple Facts
Estimating tasks by time is HARD...
Require IDEAL units of time, which are necessarily inaccurate simplifications.
Productivity per hour is INCONSISTENT and very hard to control.
Accuracy requires intimate knowledge of all components involved.
The Simple Facts
Estimating tasks by time is CRIPPLING...
Comparing TIME SPENT between workers fails to incorporate QUALITY.
Clients typically latch onto the SMALLEST number they (selectively) hear.
Documenting time ACCURATELY is tedious, error-prone, and potentially demoralizing.
In Conclusion...Estimating tasks solely by time is DUMB.
Alternatives, Anyone?
Yet Another Measure
Disconnect your work from hours.
Estimate with an arbitrary measure.
Points are a holistic evaluation of COMPLEXITY, DIFFICULTY, and RISK.
Complexity is...
The number of components:
Sundial VS Clockwork Timepiece
Automobile VS Skateboard
Multiple systems cooperating increases complexity, regardless of operation.
Difficulty is...
The measure of challenge or skill:
Motorcycle VS Bicycle Mechanic
Jellied Tart VS Mac & Cheese
Task requiring specialized skills, special tools, or intimate knowledge of the system are more difficult.
Risk is...
A subjective rating of what might go wrong:
Transporting an egg VS a brick
Experimental framework VS Wordpress
Unfamiliarity, delicacy, and unpredictability all increase the risk of a task.
This is different...
Estimation by time implies (false) CONFIDENCE, (in)ACCURACY, and (unverifiable) QUANTITATIVE EVIDENCE.
Estimation by points embraces (quantifiable) COMPLEXITY, (known) DIFFICULTY, and (unavoidable) RISK
How does that work?Planning Poker!
How does that work?Each team member selects a private estimate based upon complexity, difficulty, and risk...
Everyone reveals their estimate at once and debates the differences...
Repeat until everyone agrees!
Who is that guy?
linkedin.com/in/althex
twitter.com/al_the_x
github.com/al-the-x
slideshare.net/al_the_x
