Future of Manufacturing launch - presentation

The Future of Manufacturing: A new era of opportunity and challenge for the UK

10.00 Welcome (Sir John Parker)10.05 Headline messages (Sir Mark Walport)10.15 Response from Government (Rt. Hon. Vince Cable MP)10.25 Findings & framework for action (Lead Expert Group)10.50 Panel discussion (chaired by Sir Richard Lapthorne)11.30 Close

Join in the conversation on Twitter:@uksciencechief @foresightgovuk #FoMn #manufacturing

2

Key message 1: Manufacturing matters, now and for the future

Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30 th October 2013

#FoMn #manufacturing

• Absolute value: 10% contribution to GDP (£139 bn in 2012)

• Exports: 53% of UK exports in 2012 (£256 billion)

• R&D: 72-79% of total UK business R&D spend 2000-2011

• Productivity: growth 2.3% p.a. (1980-2009), UK 0.7% p.a.

• Jobs: high skilled and well paid

• Resilience: provides resilience in face of recession

Manufacturing is and must continue to be an essential part of the UK economy

3Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30 th October 2013


The changing position of manufacturing in leading economies

4

Key message 2: Looking ahead to 2050 - a new era for manufacturing



• Packaging of services with products e.g. Rolls Royce

• Selling of technological ‘know how’ e.g. ARM

• Remanufacturing of products e.g. JCB / Caterpillar

Manufacturers will increasingly make use of a wider ‘value chain to create revenue.

More than making a product and selling it

5

Looking ahead to 2050 - a new era for manufacturing



Faster, more responsive and closer to customers

• Mass personalisation of low-cost products, on demand

• Distributed production: big high-tech, modular, home, mobile

• Greater design freedom

• More digital connections along value chains

6




Exposed to new market opportunities

• Changes to personal wealth / ageing populations

• BRICs and the ‘Next 11’

• Continued global ‘fragmentation’ of the value chain

• Some ‘onshoring’ back to the UK

7




More sustainable

• Growing / more urban populations raise resource demand

• Climate change and global supply chain vulnerability

• Resulting volatility in price of commodities

• Reuse, remanufacturing, recycling - a ‘circular economy’

8




Increasingly dependent on highly skilled workers

• Strong demand for manufacturing workers

• A need to accommodate more older workers

• Importance of STEM qualifications

• Blending of technical & commercial ‘hybrid’ skills

• Potential for human enhancement




• Better intelligence - beyond measuring output from production

• Better targeting of support, using the wider policy system

• Enhancing capability in evaluating and coordinating policy

• Scaling up a number of existing initiatives

Key message 3:

As manufacturing evolves, policy makers will need new approaches to ensure that the UK is a place where it thrives

10 Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30 th October 2013

• Welcome (Sir John Parker)

• Headline messages (Sir Mark Walport)

• Response from Government (the Rt. Hon. Vince Cable MP)

• Findings and framework for action

• Panel discussion (chaired by Sir Richard Lapthorne)









12

Faster, more responsive and closer to customersDr Hamid Mughal, Rolls Royce plc



• Central role of technology in manufacturing competitiveness

• Primary / underpinning technologies (ICT, sensors, advanced materials, biotechnology…) likely to become more pervasive in products and processes

• Secondary technologies (mobile internet, big data, robotics, additive manufacturing…) likely to make use of these

• Implications - distributed production, personalisation of low cost products, digitised value chains, higher performance

• Factories of the future will become increasingly diverse

Collaborative Model of Manufacturing Growth & Success

Capital F

unding

Business Advice

Skills S

upport

UK Gro

wth

Skilled Labour

Wealth C

reation

Business Need

Product Need

Know-HowProven Capabilities

Know-How

High Calibre Staff

Devt Funding

Economic Context

Partnering

Generic capabilities

Spill-over Benefits

Business Ideas

Innovativ

e ideas

Scientific K

nowledge

High C

alibre

Sta

ff

Intelle

ctual P

roperty

Papers &

Gro

wth

Exploita

tion P

ull

Exploitation

Technology Pipeline

Prototype Demonstration

Pre-production

Fundamental Research

Production Demonstration

Industrial Exploitation• Competitive Products • Profit & growth• Wealth creation • Intellectual Property

• Product Technology gaps• New material needs• Poor process capability • Environmental challenges

Early Research Lead - Universities

Partners – Industry, EPSRC, Catapult

Capability Demonstrators

Pro

ble

m

So

luti

on

Lab Demonstration

Technology Development

Lead - Catapult

Partners: Industry, TSB / BIS, Universities

Lead – Industry

Partners – TSB / BIS, Catapult

Universities

Lead - Industry

Partners: Supply chain, TSB / BIS, Catapult

http://www.sovrin.co.uk/images/cr5.jpg

http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/54/13/22251354.jpg

15

More SustainableProfessor Steve Evans, University of Cambridge



• Potential volatility of supply / price of resources

• Climate change affecting vulnerable supply chains

• Greater use of regulation ‘pricing the environment’

• Consumer pull for eco-products

• Robust products for ‘collaborative consumption’

• Emergence of a circular economy in which products are reused, remanufactured and recycled





18

New approaches to policy for the futureProfessor Alan Hughes, University of Cambridge



• Better intelligence - beyond measuring production output

• Manufacturers already using a wider value-chain to generate revenue from pre/post production

• New metrics would inform how new value is being created and where the UK can capture more

• Potential for new models of data collection or sampling of firms, piloted alongside existing systems

19




• Better targeting of support, using the wider policy system

• Opportunity for industrial policy to evolve to the next level, tailored to requirements of specific areas of the value chain

• Identifying barriers to emergence of new technologies and their business implementation in different sectors

• A systems based approach is needed for the future, integrating science, technology, innovation and industrial policies

20




• Enhancing capability in evaluating and coordinating policy

• Changes in manufacturing will require future capacity in:

1. Evaluating changes across the sector, drawing in intelligence;

2. Assessing the impact of policies relevant across manufacturing; and

3. Identifying and responding to international best practice in policy design and implementation.

• One option would be to establish a US-style Office for Manufacturing to strengthen Government capability






