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The Future of Work Insights from Discussions Building on an Ini4al Perspec4ve by: Andrew Curry | Director, Global Knowledge Lead | The Futures Company
Context The ini4al perspec4ve on the Future of Work kicked off the
Future Agenda 2.0 global discussions taking place through 2015. This summary builds on the ini4al view and is updated as we progress.
Ini4al Perspec4ves Q4 2014
Global Discussions Q1/2 2015
Insight Synthesis Q3 2015
Sharing Output Q4 2015
The Global Challenge The global challenge of work is two-‐fold. First, will automa4on, in its various forms, destroy jobs? And second, even if not, will workers
be paid enough to sustain the global economic system?
Manufacturing vs. Services One of the reasons for the boom in living standards in the C20th was because of the long boom in manufacturing, the dominant economic trend for much of the century. Produc4vity growth tends to fall as services become dominant.
Peak Globalisa=on Globalisa4on is reaching its limits. Wages in export sectors in both China and
India are now rela4vely high and companies are moving their produc4on closer to their markets, wan4ng to be able to respond more flexibly to demand.
Posi=ve Immigra=on Economists agree that immigra4on is good for economies. Migrants tend to be
younger, more enterprising, and economically ac4ve, and their effect on wages, economic growth and tax contribu4ons is almost completely posi4ve.
Technology Takeover There is a widespread fear that the rise of robots -‐ or more exactly, a
combina4on of compu4ng power, algorithms and robo4cs -‐ will destroy the labour market, even, possibly, the very idea of labour value.
Good Jobs Companies out-‐perform through a combina4on of be[er wages, investment in training, and appropriate technological investment to support staff… High value work benefits individuals, businesses, as well as society as a whole.
External Drivers Much of the labor market woes of the past decade are down to the
financial crisis, reduced investment and the impact of globalisa4on. Many middle-‐skill jobs will prove more resistant to unbundling than adver4sed.
Post Modern Workplaces We are on the cusp of a transi4on to a world where, half of the popula4ons
of Europe and the United States subscribe to post-‐modern values of autonomy and diversity. The workplace will not escape this trend.
Perfect Storm The explana4on that seems best to fit present state of work is that it has been through a “perfect storm” of a globalised workforce, the deskilling of rou4ne
work and the shib of these workers into manual or service work.
Living Wage Un4l very recently, the idea of a basic income, a minimum sum paid to all people regardless of their work status, was right at the fringe of poli4cal
discourse. But it has been moving rapidly towards the mainstream.
Less is Not More Increased automa4on allows us to produce more with less,
decoupling the link between wages and produc4vity. Many na4onal policies have to address an increasingly under employed workforce.
Smart Mindfulness We take more care of our smartphones than we do of ourselves.
Many corpora4ons adopt new technology to help workers manage stress and remain both physically and mentally fit and produc4ve.
Over-‐=red and Over-‐worked Our defini4on of success and the adop4on of an always-‐connected work-‐life have made the millennial genera4on more stressed and over-‐4red than any
other. The high-‐achievers will con4nue to pay a high price for success.
Hollowing Out the Professions Technology is challenging the white-‐collar worker and automa4ng both middle and high-‐end jobs. The future will see fewer accountants, lawyers and doctors and a hollowing out of the previously ‘safe’ professions.
Skill Concentra=ons The growth of the nomadic global elite ci4zenship accelerates the
concentra4on of the high-‐skill / high-‐reward opportuni4es within a select group of globally-‐connected ci4zens, who move ahead of the urban pack.
Suppor=ng the Ageing Workforce As major economies suffer from increasing dependency ra4os, the challenge of suppor4ng an increasingly older workforce demands rethinking of life-‐long
learning and broader acceptance of the cost of part-‐4me flexible jobs.
Wi-‐fi Global Nomads For some in the knowledge economy the poten4al for con4nuous travel,
blended with part-‐4me work, is focused on ‘wi-‐fi hopping’for regular access to high-‐speed connec4vity -‐ no ma[er where in the world they are.
Two-‐Way Trust An increase in trust between employees and employers builds
greater alignment and enables democra4sa4on of the workplace, more flexible ways of working and more effec4ve organisa4ons.
Surplus People We need to make posi4ve choices to avoid a world of increased
automa4on with surplus people seeking employment and greater economic exploita4on of those in work.
Making Work Work (for People and Work) We will see a shib in priority from ‘money ma[ers’ to ‘meaning ma[ers’.
This will lead to the emergence of community and wellbeing managers in organisa4ons and new ways to measure success.
Lower Growth Economy Lower expecta4ons for economic growth in many regions will see greater use of robots to increase produc4vity, changing spending
pa[erns and a rise in the sharing economy.
Inequality Dilemma The inequality dichotomy in developing countries con4nues to expand, beyond just wealth and opportunity: Gender, race and skills gaps all increase and, even
as some of the poorest see improvements, the wealthy pull further away.
African Spring Ineffec4ve governance encourages a disaffected popula4on to demand new
poli4cal leaders who put the needs of the public before their own: Voices from the middle and wealthy classes ini4ate necessary system change themselves.
Skills Flight vs. Social Isola=on Economic migrants to move to regional economic centres of excellence. More fragmented, imbalanced socie4es are leb behind, with surplus low-‐skilled
labour, falling wages and a rise in poli4cal isola4on and aggression.
Private Investment in State Infrastructure Con4nued decline of trust in Governments leads to more private capital
filling the gaps leb by inadequate governance and inappropriate investment. This includes more interven4ons in energy, transport and educa4on.
Back to the Village In developing markets, increased societal fragmenta4on, off-‐grid living and a growing disenchantment with the inefficiency of the status quo leads to a return to community ‘village’ lifestyle where local independence reigns.
21st Century Organisa=ons The emerging organisa4on feels very different from c20th companies -‐ collabora4ve, crowd-‐funded, fla[er, human-‐focused, hyper-‐specialised, informal, localised, out-‐sourced, project-‐based, purpose-‐led and virtual.
A New Social Contract Defini4ons of success become more personally meaningful to each individual and are supported by employers, re-‐purposed
unions and the power of the sharing economy network.
Constant Learning and Skill Development Personalised and contextually relevant on-‐the-‐job training
and educa4on will extend effec4ve working lives and ensure that skills are constantly refreshed.
Wisdom Workers Focus is on enabling reinven4on stemming from opportuni4es created by non-‐linear career paths and innova4on networks, giving rise to the ‘wisdom worker’ -‐ where experience is the cri4cal addi4on to skills and intelligence.
Cyber Reputa=ons Personal and corporate cyber reputa4ons move with the individual, enabling transparency and accountability about
performance of services and interac4ons.
Feminine Spirit Leading organisa4ons, in par4cular those in the West, promote and invest in women, be[er represen4ng the popula4ons that they serve.
Many benefit from doing so.
The Fun Factor As a[rac4on and reten4on for jobs becomes more compe44ve in a freelance
world, companies aim to “elevate” the workplace experience -‐ reducing rou4ne drudgery and emphasizing self-‐actualising, fun experiences.
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