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Global Economic Prospects Middle East & North Africa January 2014 World Bank Andrew Williams Jr Email: [email protected] Mobile: +1-424-222-1997 Skype: andrew.williams.jr http://twitter.com/AWilliamsJr http://xeeme.com/AmbassadorAWJ https://www.facebook.com/FAUBermuda http://www.yatedo.com/andrewwilliamsjr http://www.slideshare.net/andrewwilliamsjr http://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewwilliamsjr http://www.facebook.com/ajactionteam http://www.facebook.com/ambassadorawj http://www.facebook.com/andrewwilliamsjr http://www.facebook.com/AJGombeyBermuda
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Global Economic Prospects
January 2014
Middle East & North AfricaDamir Cosic
World BankJanuary 2014
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Jordan
Tunisia
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
- 44%
Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Egypt’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey crossed into positive territory in November 2013 for the
first time in 13 months, signaling an improvement in manufacturing
output going forward.
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Ex-ports
Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Ex-ports
Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Ex-ports
Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Ex-ports
Tourist Ar-rivals
Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Growth, 3m/3m, saar
Ex-ports
Tourist Ar-rivals
- 57%
Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
8,000.0
8,500.0
9,000.0
9,500.0
10,000.0mb/d
Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
8,000.0
8,500.0
9,000.0
9,500.0
10,000.0mb/d
Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters
7.3
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
8,000.0
8,500.0
9,000.0
9,500.0
10,000.0mb/d
Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters
7.3
8.5
Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
8,000.0
8,500.0
9,000.0
9,500.0
10,000.0mb/d
Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters
7.3
8.5
10.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Develop-ing MENA
External imbalances have worsened in the region
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Develop-ing MENA
External imbalances have worsened in the region
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Develop-ing MENA
External imbalances have worsened in the region
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5 Forecast
Fiscal balances as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Im-porters
Develop-ing MENA
Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5 Forecast
Fiscal balances as a share of GDP
Oil Exporters
Oil Im-porters
Develop-ing MENA
Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Forecast
% change
Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Developing MENA
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Forecast
% change
Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Developing MENA
2.8%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Forecast
% change
Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks
Oil Exporters
Oil Importers
Developing MENA
3.6%
Global Economic Prospects
January 2014
Middle East & North AfricaDamir Cosic
World BankJanuary 2014
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook