11/19/2009

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Cell Phones off the Road ?

Marc Kostelansky

&

Aniello Tambasco

The History of the Cell Phone:

The mobile phone or cell phone has come a long way from it’s ancestor the two-way radio in vehicles.

The mobile phone dates back to 1910 but was really classified a cellular phone in 1973.

On April 3, 1973, Motorola employee Dr. Martin Cooper placed a call to a colleague, while strolling the streets of New York City talking on the first Motorola DynaTAC prototype in front of the media.* (Considered 1st generation)

Second Generation phone systems were characterized by digital circuit switched transmission and the introduction of advanced and fast phone-to-network signaling. Established in Finland in 1991 but the first person-to-person SMS text message was possible in Finland in 1993*

Third Generation has been developed and it is in use but the technology is being advanced and tested for future uses in live streaming of radio and television.*

According to the Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association, today there are more than 60 million customers with cellular phones, even though wireless service was just invented nearly 50 years ago. The cellular business was a $3 million market 25 years ago and has grown increasingly to close to a $30 billion per year industry.**

**http://cellphones.org/cell-phone-history.html

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_mobile_phones

Background Statistics

Distraction from cell phone use while driving (hand held or hands free) extends a driver's reaction as much as having a blood alcohol concentration at the legal limit of .08%. (University of Utah)

The No.1 source of driver inattention is use of a wireless device. (Virginia Tech /NHTSA)

Drivers that use cell phones are four times as likely to get into crashes serious enough to injure themselves. (NHTSA, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety)

10% of drivers aged 16 to 24 years old are on their phone at any one time.

Driving while distracted is a factor in 25% of police reported crashes.

Driving while using a cell phone reduces the amount of brain activity associated with driving by 37%. (Carnegie Mellon)

Background Statistics (Cont.):

Laws on cell phone usage while driving have been proposed in 40 states and there are bans already in place in 23 countries around the world

(CMAJ, 2001).

In 2005, 5,699 teens whose ages range from 16 to 20 died in car crashes

and accounted for 27.4% of all fatal crashes (Current Events, 2007).

Drivers who use cell phones take longer to apply the brakes and

quadruple their chances of getting in an accident (Solomon, 2000).

Sources say that cell phone usage has caused 2,600 deaths and 330,000 injures in the United States each year. Cell phone usage has risen 600% in

the United States and 80% of all crashes and 65% of near crashes we due to a distracted driver (DrivingLaws.org, 2009).

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Exploration:

Hypothesis: Cell phone use should be banned while driving in order to minimize distraction to the driver except if a hands-free device is used.

Target Audience:• Male or Female

• Age range from 16-60 years old

• Must have a valid driver’s license

• Must own a cell phone

Data Collection:• 10 Question survey distributed on paper

• Population size >30

• Distributed at random

• Distributed 50 surveys and 38 people responded

Data Preparation:

Gender:

Male (0) = 14

Female (1) = 24

Age Distribution of Surveys Collected

1. 16 - 25 Years Old (29)

2. 26 – 35 Years Old (4)

3. 36 – 45 Years Old (3)

4. 46 – 55 Years Old (1)

5. 56 – 65 Years Old (1)

37%

63%0

1

0

10

20

30

40

1 2 3 4 5

Total

Data Preparation:

Functions used while driving:

Phone Call (38 out of 38)

Texting (29 out of 38)

Email (4 out of 38)

Other apps (2 out of 38)

Gender Breakdown of Hands Free

Device Usage

0 Male (4)

1 Female (3)

7 out of 38 people use a hands free device(18.4%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sum of Fxn:Phone

Call

Sum of Fxn:

Texting

Sum of Fxn: Email

Sum of Fxn: Other

apps.

Total

0

2

4

6

0 1

Total

Data Preparation:

Time Spent on Cell Phone Daily

1 – 0 mins to 5 mins (0)

2 – 6 mins to 12 mins (3)

3 – 13 mins to 30 mins (7)

4 - 31 mins to 1 hr (15)

5 – 1 hr + (13)

Breakdown of Accidents due to Cell Phone

Usage by Gender

0 Male (1)

1 Female (3)

4 out 38 people admitted to being in an accident

due to using a cell phone while driving. (10.52%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2 3 4 5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0 1

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Data Preparation:

How distracted do you rate yourself while driving and using a cell phone?

1 – Not Distracted (2)

2 – Somewhat Distracted (25)

3 – Distracted (8)

4 – Very Distracted (2)

5 – I Never Use a Cell Phone While Driving (1)

Should Cell Phone Use Be Banned While Driving?

0 – No (23)

1 – Yes (15)

15 out of 38 people would like to have cell phone usage

banned (39.47%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 2 3 4 5

61%

39%

0 1

One Sample Proportion Test

HYPOTHESIS TESTS hypothesized valuesample

proportion x sample size std error

for the proportion 0.5 0.184211 7 38 0.08111071

NULL : p<=0.5 Most people don’t use a hands free device while driving.

ALTERNATIVE: p>0.5 Most people use a hands free device while driving.

Do most people use a hands free device while driving?

test statistic (obs) (3.893)

critical measure 1.645 =NORMSINVone-tailed or two-

tailed? 1

|obs| > critical? Yes

p-value 0.00004944 =(# of tails)*(1-NORMSDIST)

a-level 0.050

p-value < a-level? Yes

Accept the Null

One Sample Proportion Test 2

HYPOTHESIS TESTShypothesized

valuesample

proportion xsample

size std error

for the proportion 0.5 0.105263158 4 38 0.081110711

NULL : p<=0.5

Most people were not in an accident due to driving and using a cell phone.

ALTERNATIVE: p>0.5

Most people were in an accident due to driving and using a cell phone.

Do most accident occur due to driving and using a cell phone?

test statistic (obs) (4.867)

critical measure 1.645 =NORMSINVone-tailed or

two-tailed? 1

|obs| > critical? Yes

p-value 0.00000057 =(# of tails)*(1-NORMSDIST)

a-level 0.050

p-value < a-level? Yes

Accept the Null

One Sample Proportion Test 3

HYPOTHESIS TESTShypothesized

valuesample

proportion x sample size std error

for the proportion 0.5 0.394736842 15 38 0.081110711

NULL : p<=0.5

Most people do not agree that cell phone use should be banned while driving.

ALTERNATIVE: p>0.5

Most people agree that cell phone use should be banned while driving.

Do most people think cell phone use should be banned while driving?

test statistic (obs) (1.298)

critical measure 1.645 =NORMSINV

one-tailed or two-tailed? 1

|obs| > critical? No

p-value 0.09718296 =(# of tails)*(1-NORMSDIST)

a-level 0.050

p-value < a-level? No

Reject the Null!

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Simple Linear Regression

Y Variable – Banning Option 0 - No

1 - Yes

X Variable – Distraction Rating0 – Not Distracted

1 – Somewhat Distracted

2 – Distracted

3 – Very Distracted

4 – I never us a cell phone while driving.

Scatter plot of Distraction Rating vs.

Banning Opinion

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Weak Positive Relationship

Linear Regression Cont.

Correlation Coefficient = 41.01%

R^2 = 0.1682

Std. Error = 0.4580

Slope = 0.2602

Intercept = -0.2147

P Value = 0.0105

T obs = 2.698

There is a weak positive relationship between the variables,

therefore, accept the null. Banned Option = -0.2147 + 0.2602 (Distraction Rating)

Example: A person who feels very distracted (4) will vote to have cell phones

banned while driving. (Banned option = 1)

Multiple Regression

P Value

Gender: 0.105814

Age: 0.034488

Driver's license: -

Own a cell phone: -

Fxn:Phone Call -

Fxn: Texting 0.028097

Fxn: Email 0.443939

Fxn: Other apps. 0.713586

Do you use a hands free device while driving?: 0.273375

Time spent on cell phone: 0.145984

Where you in an accident while driving and using your cell phone?: 0.67988

How distracted are you while driving and using a cell phone?: 0.002957

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Multiple Regression Cont

P Value

Age: 0.180788

Fxn: Texting 0.01326

How distracted are you while driving and using a cell

phone?: 0.020305

P Value

Fxn: Texting 0.031041

How distracted are you while driving and using a cell

phone?: 0.054119

Regression 2

Regression 3

Multiple Regression Cont

Correlation Coefficient = 43.65%

Adjusted R = 0.1681

Std. Error = 0.4518

T obs = -2.9114

Intercept = 0.7778

Slope = -0.5019

P value = 0.00614

F value = 0.0061 <= LOW! Therefore there is a weak

negative correlation between the variables.

Example: Banning Option = 0.7778 – 0.5019 (Texting)

Someone who Text messages (1) while driving is likely to vote against having cell phones banned while driving (Banned option =

0).

Results:

Hypothesis 1 • Most people don’t use a hands free device while driving.

Hypothesis 2• Most people were not in an accident due to using a cell phone and

driving.

Hypothesis 3

• Most people agree cell phone usage should be banned while driving.

Regression 1• There was a weak positive relationship between the banned option and

distraction rating.

Regression 2• There was a weak negative correlation between the banned option

and using the texting function while driving.

Recommendations:

Bigger population

Distribute the surveys in various locations and types (online, phone, etc.)

Compare accidents with users of services such as On Star.

Analyze data from states that have already banned cell phone usage while driving.

Collect more specific data (Ex. Time on phone while driving)

11/19/2009

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Questions?