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New Mega Trends Impact of Mega Trends on Future of Mobility
By Sarwant Singh
Copyright : Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved.
Top Mega Trends Covered in the Research
What is a Mega Trend?
Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the
future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies,
economies, cultures and personal lives.
Urbanization – City as a Customer
Smart is the New Green
Social Trends
Connectivity and Convergence
Bricks and Clicks
Innovating to Zero
New Business Models: Value for Many
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers
Future Infrastructure Development
Health, Wellness and Well Being
Future of Mobility
2
Mega Trend 1:
Urbanisation - “City as a Customer”
3
Mega Cities Mega
Regions
Mega Slums Mega
Corridor 4
Case Study: BOS-WASH Corridor to have 58.2 Million Population and To Account For 20% of United States GDP in 2025
5
• Gross Metropolitan Product
(2025): $2.6 Trillion
• 18 Million new inhabitants in the
next decade
• Total volume on the corridor,
including commuter service to
increase from 250 million (2009)
to 400 million (2030) riders per
year
• $300 Billion Five Year Plan To
Upgrade Transport, Energy,
Water, Telecom Infrastructure
Announced (Feb 2011)
Over 26 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2025 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America
Selected Smart Cities in 2025
Toronto
San Francisco
Vancouver
New York
Berlin
Seattle
Chicago Los Angeles
Vienna
Oslo
Seoul
Tianjin
Wuhan
Helsinki
Sydney
Calgary Amsterdam Copenhagen
Beijing Tokyo
Singapore Shenzhen
Source: Siemens Green City Index, Forbes Smart City List, Innovation City Index, Specific Smart Project Websites for Each City, Frost & Sullivan, 2012
Stockholm
Barcelona
Paris London
6
Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future
Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the country’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%.
What are the Micro Implications? High Economic Power Hub and Spoke Business Model Transit oriented development New Mobility Solutions
City as a Customer
7
Case Study : How Siemens Aligns Itself to Mega Trends
Source : Siemens AG. All rights reserved
8
City as A Customer – What does it mean to Auto
Industry?
New mobility business models
Cars designed
around Cities and not cities
designed around cars
New urban vehicle
technologies like Traffic Jam Assist,
Internet Radio
Connectivity e.g. V2V and
V2I communicati
on
Flag-ship brick and
click Stores
City Taxis (perhaps
Autonomous in future)
9
Integrated door to door mobility solutions
Mega Trend 2:
Smart is the New Green
10
Smart Car : 6 Key Pillars to the Smart Car Definition of Every OEM And The Cloud Is A Critical Component In The Same
Outside the Vehicle Sensors, V2V, V2I, V2H, D2D, ADAS, Crowd sourcing, Cloud
Interaction
Personal Media iPod, iPhone, iPad all
bridging digital life style gaps in car
Device Connectivity Both for content and data pipe (tethered connectivity model)
Cloud Management Toyota, Ford and now Nissan
also partnering for Cloud usage
Within the Vehicle Multimodal HMI –
Semi Autonomous and Eco-Driving Aids
Eco driving analysis and information
presentation to driver
12
1
4
3
2 6
5
Mega Trend 3:
Social Trends
13
14
Gen Y Geo Socialization
“Girl Power”
Ageing Population
Reverse Brain Drain
Middle Bulge
China - Hukou System and One-Child
Policy reforms
Surge in Asian Work
Pool
Personal Robots
Mega Trend 4:
Connectivity & Convergence
15
10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020
5 billion internet users by 2020
5 connected devices for every user by 2020
500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020
80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
16
Augmented Reality
Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital data through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases user’s interactivity with the local environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which has implications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities.
Reality Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Virtual World
17
Augmented Reality to Boost New Car Sales Innovative feature by automakers in coordination with graphics and design studios is likely to lure new car buyers and increase car sales.
Frost & Sullivan analysis. Pictures : Various sources
VW’s augmented reality version of the Golf
VW used augmented reality to introduce the 2012 Beetle in Canada
Using webcam to view a 3D version of the car on
computer
On gigantic billboards
Using mobile app
McLaren shows off concept car via AR mobile app
Using mobile app
BMW launched the new Z4 campaign using AR
technology
KIA Optima Car in 3D Augmented Reality
AR Colour Head-Up Display
Mega Trend 5:
Bricks and Clicks
19
Electronics
Apparels & Accessories
Digital Entertainment1
Food & Beverages
2010
Online sales as a percentage of total
2020
21% 43%
10% 20%
3% 16%
Product Categories
52% 62%
Bricks and Clicks: Global Online Retail Sales To Account for 16.6% of Total Retail Sales by 2020 and upto 25% in countries like US
$0.43 Trillion $2.5 Trillion Total Online Retail Sales
$11 Trillion $15 Trillion Total Retail Sales
Health/Wellness/Beauty
Home & Garden 6% 8%
3% 12%
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
1Books, Music and Videos
Online sales as a percentage of total
20
Evolution of Bricks and Clicks Model in New Car Retailing Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel to an Integrated Cross Channel Model
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Conventional dealership model Online car configurator
Google search Mobile Apps
Bricks (pre-2000) +Advent of Clicks (post-2010)
Interactive Stores (motion sensor displays)
Mobile Stores (Ambient mobile retail)
Flagship stores (modern retail)
The Future - Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond)
OEMs to invest in flagship stores in major cities to boost brand image
In-store, online and mobile to integrate creating a ‘Omni channel’ shopping experience for new car buyers
M-Payment Users to increase by 16 percent exceeding the 1 billion mark by 2025
2011 Before Clicks
2015 After Clicks
Macro to Micro Implication
Flagship stores
Single-Channel Auto Retail Omnichannel (click based retail)
Car loan financing at dealerships Online Leasing /Finance
New Marketing Solutions through new ‘social’ and interactive platforms at public places using kiosks
TV ads and Campaigns Social Media and Digital Campaigns
Big-box Format Car Showrooms
Macro To Micro Implications of Bricks & Clicks As automotive retailers adopt the bricks and clicks approach, showrooms will reduce in size, retailing will become omnichannel, and marketing increasingly digital
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
New Car eRetailing: Macro To Micro of Bricks and Clicks, Global, 2011 and 2015
Mega Trend 6:
Innovating to Zero
23
Examples of “Innovating to Zero” ; Car Industry Led With Carbon Neutral Factories, Zero Emission Cars, What Next !
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
Off-the-Grid Buildings - On-site Energy Harvest -
Use of Intelligent Systems - Increase use of renewable energy
Net Zero Hospitals -
- Energy efficient buildings - Greener Transport - Waste Reduction and
Waste Recycling - Increase use of Renewable
Energy
Cutting Edge IT -Infrastructure and Services -
that convert Ideas to implementation on real-time
Instant File Sharing - Networking Interfaces -
Zero Management Gaps -Zero Processing Time-
Zero Learning Gaps-
- In-house design, cutting, finishing
- Continuous, speedy deliveries
- Direct point-of-sale data collection,
- Daily analysis of product sales and customer feedback using software analytics
Zero faults and zero - errors in manufacturing
Highly Strict Quality - Control
- Strong Health and Safety Measures
- Safety Days (eg. Shell) - Life-Saving Rules within
facilities - Active safety systems in
vehicles that over ride drivers
Zero Energy Building
Zero Accidents Zero Defects
Carbon Neutral City
Zero Time Business
Incubation
Zero Design-To-Shelf (Retail)
24
Mega Trend 7:
New Business Models: Value for Many
25
New Business Models
Personalization and Customization
Personalization & Customization
Nike (or BMW with options)
Quirky .com
Co-Creation
One-off Experience
Pay as you go Unmanned
Aerial Vehicles
(or PAYD Insurance)
(red letter Days or BMW on Demand)
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
26
Will Replace
“Value for Many”
“Value for Money”
Free Premium
Freemium
+
=
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 27
Global Vehicle Platforms By 2020 key 12 global OEM groups with their total 154 platforms will account for nearly 74
percent of the global vehicle production
2010 Key Platform, 2020 Key Platform Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
23
33
27 27
18
14
32
1213
6
9 99
30
27
15
17
9
13
9 9
6
3
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Vol
ksw
agen
Gro
up
Toyo
ta G
roup
Rena
ult-
Nis
san
Gro
up
Gen
eral
Mot
ors
Gro
up
Hyu
ndai
Gro
up
Ford
Gro
up
Fiat
-Chr
ysle
r Gro
up
PSA
Gro
up
Tata
Gro
up
BMW
Gro
up
Dai
mle
r G
roup
Gee
ly G
roup
Tota
l No.
Of P
latf
orm
s
2010 2020
XV, E B, B0 Gamma,
Delta 3
Global C,
Global C
SR1,
C-EVO
PF1,
BVH1
Vista,
Ace
PL2,
PL2
W, MRA B,
Basic
PQ35,
MQB
HD,
HD
2010 Average = 18.6 Platforms
2020 Average = 12.8 Platforms
Global Automotive Industry Vision: Global Vehicle Platform Summary, Global, 2010 and 2020
28
Mega Trend 8:
Economic Trends
29
The Next Game Changers in 2025
$2,827 Billion
$5,437 Billion
$1,098 Billion
$811 Billion
$1,167 Billion $2,441
Billion
$653 Billion $6,235
Billion
$38,526 Billion
$6,189 Billion
$772 Billion $323
Billion
$483 Billion
Mexico Brazil
Argentina
Egypt
South Africa
Turkey
Poland
India
China
Russia
Indonesia
Thailand
Vietnam
Philippines
BRIC Nations
Next Game Changers
Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts to 2025 have been extrapolated based on Nominal GDP growth rate projections .
Source: International Monetary Fund. Oxford Economics, Frost & Sullivan, 2012
$4,816 Billion
Mega Trend 9:
Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
31
Mood
Stress levels
Mental health
Sense of optimism
Attitude
Security
Safety
Personal values
Personal fulfilment
Self image / self actualisation
Sight / vision
Touch & feel
Smell / breathing
Sound
Temperature
Wellness
The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 32
Is Health Wellness and Wellbeing in Cars a Myth or a Reality?
33
At the Tokyo Auto Show in Oct 2007, Toyota unveiled the 2007 RiN promoted as a Healthy Living vehicle designed to make its’ driver feel at ease contributing to a healthier mental state and well being.
Ergonomic seats: maintain and control
posture
Heated seats: provide comfort
Oxygen-level conditioner and
humidifier
Green tinted glazing to reduce
infiltration of UV and infrared light;
green colour portrays harmony
with nature
Steering wheel changes colour
based on driver’s mood.
“Promotes a healthier well-being”
-Toyota Manufacturer
Sliding doors and longer windows to
view nature from the ground up.
“Increased comfort and serene, healthy living”
Light distribution control headlights
intended to be easier on the eye for
pedestrians and oncoming traffic.
34
Mega Trend 10:
Future of Mobility
34 34
Future Innovation in Mobility to Focus on The “Wild” Side
Known Solutions
Met Needs Unmet Needs
Unknown Solutions
Technology Innovation
Traffic Prediction system
Parking Search assistance
Cashless Payment
Improvement
Micro cars
Electric Cars
Electric Bikes
Application Innovation
Car Sharing
Car Pooling
Bike Sharing
Wild Innovation
Mobility Integration
New Mobility Products
Motorized Mover
Two seated Electric Car
35
Micro Mobility Solutions Market To Explode in Future Open-top models are largely there to target conventional bicycle, engine-driven scooter
and motorcycle users; while the closed-tops are targeted at conventional car users
One-wheeled One-seating
Two-wheeled One-standing
Bike-type
Two-wheeled One-standing Segway-type
Two-wheeled One-seating
Bike-type
Two-wheeled Two-seating Segway-type
Three-wheeled One-standing Scooter-type
One-wheeled One-seating
Motorcycle-type
Four-wheeled One-seating
Wheelchair-type
Three-wheeled One-seating Scooter-type
Four-wheeled One-seating
Car-type
Four-wheeled Tandem Two-seating
Car-type
Four-wheeled Three-seating
Car-type
OP
EN
- TO
P
CL
OSE
D - T
OP
Three-wheeled One-seating
Motorcycle-type
Three-wheeled One-seating Scooter-type
Three-wheeled One-seating
Sports bike-Type
36
Overview of Micro Mobility Models by Key Global Mainstream OEMs About 125 micro mobility models announced by various stakeholders globally , 50% to go
into production
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P P
P
P P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P = Production ready
P P
P
P
On
e-W
hee
l F
ou
r-W
hee
l T
hre
e-W
hee
l T
wo
-Wh
eel
P
Images: Only for illustration, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis.
4 4 1 5 8 7 12 4 2 20 10 13 7 7 5 2
4
35
35
37
111 Total
GM Ford Chrysler Renault VW Audi BMW Daimler Fiat PSA Hyundai Honda Toyota Nissan Suzuki Geely
37
The Future of Mobility Is Multi-Modal Commuting, Combining Door to Door Solutions Using Dedicated Mobility Platforms
City
Suburbs
Intercity T
RA
VE
L D
IST
AN
CE
TRAVEL DISTANCE Destination
Public Transportation
Private Cars
Shared Mobility
Micro-mobility
Intercity Bus
Intercity Train
Shared Mobility
Door to door integrated, multi-mobility a reality in future
Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first and last mile connectivity.
Government to club public transport with bike / two wheeler/car rental schemes
Market will see new players in market termed as “Mobility Integrators”
38
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Company Name
Car Leasing and Car-Sharing Public Transport Parking
Management Long distance
travel Others
Car Sharing (Traditional)
Car Leasing (Long-term)
Car Rentals (Short-term)
Bike (Cycle) Renting
Scooter renting
Intra-City
Inter-City
Taxi Ferries Bike
Sheds Car
Parking Trains Flight Refuel
Tele-conferen
cing Others
Tran
spo
rt
Op
erat
ors
C
ar
Co
mp
anie
s Le
asin
g C
om
pan
ies
Examples of Mobility Integrators Today
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
39
40
Urban Transhipment Areas
Urban Consolidation Centres
Urban Intermodal Hubs
Locker Boxes Microdistribution
Mobile Depots / Freight Buses
Urban Logistics – To be $9.8Trillion Market
More Bundling, Intermodality and Microdistribution in Urban Areas
Types of Urban Distribution
Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries
Mobile Collection Postal (Parcel) Service
So what will the future look like in 2025
41
1. We will start witnessing robots in homes
2. Digital Assistants will guide our everyday lives
3. Cars to have many autonomous functions which will provide advanced
driver assistance functions
4. Most Automotive factories will be carbon neutral
5. You will most likely drive in a city which wants to be Smart or
Sustainable
6. Cars will have multiple devices monitoring our well being
7. A Chinese OEM will be in the top 10
Macro Micro
From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation
Mega Trend Selected trends that impact your
business and markets
Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a
wide ranging impact
Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario-
building and macro economic forecasts
Impact on Future Product/ Technology
Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs
To
42
Next UM 3.0 Event – 19 and 20 June 2013 2 Day Event with First Day hosted in House of Parliament as a Parliamentary Debate
http://www.urbanmobility.gilcommunity.com/
Learn More About “New Mega Trends”
Upcoming Book:
New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives
By Sarwant Singh Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=577423
Join Our Mega Trend and Mobility Group On 1. Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation
Based on Frost & Sullivan Research 2. Future of Mobility
44
Contact Information
Sarwant Singh Partner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation Research Group and Automotive & Transportation
(+44) 2079157843, (+44) 7961 771 545
45
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