HC Track: Mega-trends, Mega-opportunities

Presented at the F&S 2013 GIL Latin America

31st January 2013

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1.Demographics 3. Health

Expenses

4. Technology 5. New Business

Model

2.Disease

Burden 2013 Brazil HC Trends

2

Demographics

3

By 2020 Lati A eri a’s Esti ated Populatio Will e Millio . Urban Population Will Account for 80%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2020

Mil

ion

s o

f P

eo

ple

Population: Breakdown by Age Range

(Latin America), 2010 & 2020

65 Years and

Above

35-64

15-34

0-14

8.4% in 2010 10.6% in 2020

Prevalence in Latin America

(2020):

Hypertension +80 M

Asthma +55 M

Diabetes +30 M

Demographic Age Shifts

and Ties to Disease

Prevalence

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Mega Cities In 2025, 69 Cities in Latin America will have more than one million inhabitants encompassing 224 million people

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Disease Burden

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Healthcare Expenditure Healthcare expenditure in Latin America to grow 30% from 2011 to 2015, reaching $580 billion

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Population with Diabetes in South and Central America will grow

59% by 2030 and reach 40 millions

Global

Rank

Country Millions

5 Brazil 12.4

7 Mexico 10.3

• Brazil and Mexico consolidate as countries with a high burden of diabetes.

• The main driver is the increasing prevalence of OVERWEIGHT: 67% of men and

74% of women in Brazil, by 2015.

• In South and Central America, 12.3% of all deaths are due to diabetes.

Population with diabetes (20-79 years)

2011

Global

Rank

Country Millions

4 Brazil 19.6

6 Mexico 16.4

2030

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Technology

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Healthcare becomes e-Healthcare

Telehealth Matrix

Customer Focus

Professional

Consumer

Industry Focus

Information Communication Technologies

Healthcare

Traditional Healthcare and Telemedicine

Consumer/Non-healthcare Approaching Telehealth

Core Telehealth EMR/EHR HIE

Tele-pharmacy

Remote Video

Consultation

Simulation/ Training

Mobile Health Software

Mobility/Tablets

Mobile Info Gathering and Delivery

Patient Portals

Wellness Systems

Health Coaching

PERS

Activity Monitoring

Wellness Apps

Tele-imaging

ECG Monitoring

Sleep Apnea

Fitness Apps

PHR

Diabetes

Monitoring

Robotic Telepresence

Mobile Telemedicine

Medication Dispensing

Remote Monitoring

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e-Healthcare becomes mobile-Health

Consumer Devices and Service Ecosystem

• Application Developers

• Application

Store Providers

• Platform

Providers

• Consumer-Paid App Downloads

• Wireless Service

Providers

• New Business Model Participants

i.e.: Payer Supported, Pharma Supported

• Device

Manufacturers

• The mHealth Consumer Devices and Services value chain is complex, as new emerging

software and connected-device innovations are continually being introduced

• mHealth application growth is dependent on increasing smartphone penetration

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New Business Model

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Mega Trend Matrix

Implications of Key Mega Trends within Latin America

Low Degree of Certainty

De

gre

e o

f Im

pa

ct

on

Lati

n A

me

ric

an

Ec

on

om

y

Lo

w

Hig

h

High

Urbanization

Generation Y

“She-conomy”

The Middle

Bulge

Future Economic Growth

Connectivity and Convergence

Innovating

to Zero

Infrastructure

Development

Health, Wellness, and Well-Being

New Business

Model Business Process

Outsourcing Renewable Power

Generation

Rise of

Multilatinas Migration

Social Programs

Note: The size of the bubble represents the scale of opportunity. The Mega Trends have been plotted according to quantitative and qualitative reasoning.

Smart is the

New Green

Mega Trend Matrix, Latin America, 2025

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Prevention vs. Intervention

The end of BIG PHARMA as we know it

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Healthcare today

Healthy Vulnerable Affected Sick

Disease Management

Clinical Diagnostics & Therapeutics

Preventive Services

Physical Exams

Personal Coaching

Communication/ Information Services

Today’s world

Education

Wellness Healthcare

Consumer Products Medical Health Shops

Complementary and Alternative Medicines

Integrated Health Solutions

Future system

Wellness Healthcare

Future healthcare

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Cost of care per day

Healthy, Independent Living

$1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000

Chronic Disease Management

Community Clinic

Doctor ’ s Office

0%

100%

Assisted Living

Skilled Nursing Facility

Specialty Clinic

Community Hospital

ICU

HOME CARE

RESIDENTIAL CARE

Qu

ali

ty o

f li

fe

Healthy, Independent Living

Chronic Disease Management

Community Clinic

Doctor ’ s Office

Assisted Living

Skilled Nursing Facility

Specialty Clinic

Community Hospital

ICU

ACUTE CARE

Virtual Hospitals

Shifting the Financial Gravity of the System

IT Convergence and Connectivity

Major Areas of Opportunity

Remote Patient Monitoring

Wellness monitoring and home/self-diagnostics of chronic

conditions.

• High Blood Pressure

• Blood Glucose Monitors

• Insulin Pumps

• Home Diagnostics

• Emergency Response

• Health Apps

Adherence and Compliance

Technology aimed at ensuring the optimal administration

of treatments.

Patient Management

End-to-end management systems for patient records:

admission, panels, treatments, study results, imaging

archive, reimbursement, discharge.

• EMR - Electronic Medical

Records

• PACS - Picture Archiving

Communication System

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The technology exists… someone WILL connect the dots and disrupt the market

Who will put these altogether?

Who will drive this Mega Trend?

Healthcare Mega Trends Latin America

Key Takeaways

Healthcare resources will migrate from

Intervention to Prevention

Information Technology will dramatically

change how patients receive health care:

outpatient setting plus remote monitoring

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Personalized, targeted, real-time health care delivery

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Extracted from “New Mega Trends: Implications for our Future Lives” Author: Sarwant Singh Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan