Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
My own business - do I have a chance?Krzysztof Daniel
ex IBMerex Red Hatterwork @ Currency OneI like games
About me
"Go board part" by Dilaudid - Own work; modified from Image:Go_board.jpg, which was made by user:donarreiskoffer. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0
So, why are you here?
Xkcd.com, CC-BY-NC
Fast forward...
Fast forward...
But...
But...
A word of warning
So, let’s continue
Absolutely no customer has a need to make you profitable.
First of all – user needs
Activities Practices Knowledge Data
Secondly - components
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing●digital camera
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing●digital camera●mobile phone touch interface
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing●digital camera●mobile phone touch interface●cloud
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing●digital camera●mobile phone touch interface●cloud●electricity
Let’s talk about ideas
One problem with the future
One problem with the future
A bit of theory
The diffusion curve
The diffusion curve
The diffusion curve
http://www.lef.csc.com/publications/911
Let’s cheat
f(time)g(time)
Let’s cheat
Let’s define:
Let’s cheat!
Let’s define:●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.
Let’s cheat!
Let’s define:●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.●Certainty - how well understood a thing
is.
Let’s cheat!
Let’s define:● Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.● Certainty - how well understood a thing is.
Let’s cheat!
Ubiquity
Certainty
Time removed.http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014/03/on-mapping-and-evolution-axis.html
Evolution vs Product
http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014_11_01_archive.html
Evolution curve - idealized
The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Weak signals
http://blog.gardeviance.org/2015/03/evolution-diffusion-hype-cycle-and.html
Profits
a.k.a. Wonder - I wonder what it can do.● New● Novel● Unknown● Uncertain● Rare● Changing● Chaotic
Genesis
Nobody did that before!
Are you sure?
Are you ready to fail fast?
Genesis-like idea
Microsoft Bob
http://news.yahoo.com/directly-fail-worst-tech-product-132527744.html
● bottled water for pets
Thirsty dog
crispy beeftangy fish
Thirsty dog
15th century
And some successes, too
The Internet - 1969
Some other successes
Do I have a chance?
You will die before you make any money out of it.*
Do I have a chance?
*or at least get very old, as the evolution speed accelerates
The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
●Measured●Stable●Predictable●Cost of doing business●Market penetration near 100%●Usually invisible to the user●Electricity, Network, Computing
Utility
●contract to fulfill●sheer price matters●no room for innovation●really large scale●nobody will see that●existing users may not be willing to switch unless you’re
significantly cheaperocan you be significantly cheaper without deep
experience in the field?
Startup problems
Do I have a chance?
New electricity provider?
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
power
computing power
social network
“New” search engine?
The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
● custom built● off-the-shelf product/rental● maturing
Transitional phase
● IBM Watson● cars● virtual personal assistants (Google Now, Apple Siri, Amazon Echo)
product-to-product startup
Canonical vs Red Hat●a number of years of really unsuccessful fight●tough competition of free, open sourced products●huge inertia proportional to the size of adopter
community●product needs to be 9x better to cause replacement*●entering still possible, time-proportional market share
product-to-product startup
* heard from one business angel, may be an approximation
No. Unless you’ve got ●a really, really good product●a really, really good sales●a lot of time
Do I have a chance?
Three types of innovation●genesis●product-to-product, utility to utility
That said...
Three types of innovation●genesis●product-to-product, utility-to-utility●there is one more...
That said...
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wonder
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
peaceful competitionwonder
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wall of inertia
peaceful competitionwonder
previous success is the deadliest enemy
Inertia
● to increase the overall effectiveness of sales departments [...];
● to improve the effectiveness of sales to large customers [...];
● [...] more precise monitoring of the level of customer satisfaction[...];
● [...] price policy (promotional offers, packaging of services) [...];
● [...] ATMAN Private Cloud [...];
● [...] sales of services outside Poland [...].
Inertia
http://media.atm.com.pl/en/pr/291131/atm-publishes-its-financial-report-for-the-third-quarter-of-2014
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wall of inertia
peaceful competitionwonder
companies stop here
●is a deadly threat to corporations●is the sweet spot for startups
the wall of inertia
takes product, makes “cost of doing business” utilityexamples:● Amazon EC2● Neostrada
product-to-utility startup
● effectiveness - when the price defends youo what is the cost of your own datacenter/e-mail server?o Something is so cheap, that suddenly everyone can afford it
l Ford Tl Commodore 64l Printed books
● Jevons effect
Industrialization
Do I have a chance?
Absolutely!
Do I have a chance?
Open Source
Open Source
● IBM PC vs Apple Mac● Google Android vs Apple iOS● Sony Betamax vs JVC VHS
Open Approach
Ecosystem
The Wardley Mapping is really powerful technique:l HS2l HM Governmentl Dutch Governmentl Two very large banks
Why?
About the presentation
There is time only for this...
I work on a tool designed for mapping.
The tool is open-source (ASL 2.0).
I need you to start using it.
You need to be AWARE!
Reasons
certain kind of very interesting innovationsscale mattersdifferent scales requires different approachesopen source helpsbeware of inertia
Do I have a chance - summary
Questions?
CreditsSimon Wardley - the technique creator
