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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 31 January 2017 - Issue No. 994 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE petrol prices to rise in February;Special 95 by 5%, Dh2 a litre The National + NewsAgency + NewBase The Ministry of Energy announced on Sunday that consumers will pay Dh2 per litre for Super 98, up 4.7 per cent from January; Special 95 will cost Dh1.89, up 5 per cent; and E Plus will cost Dh1.82, up 5.2 per cent. Diesel will cost Dh2, up 3 per cent. In January motorists paid Dh1.91 for a litre of Super 98, Dh1.80 for Special 95 and Dh1.73 for E Plus. Diesel cost Dh1.94 a litre. Petrol prices in the UAE rose last year, but less sharply than international oil benchmarks did. At the start of 2016 Super 98 was priced at Dh1.69 per litre, Special 95 at Dh1.58 and E Plus at Dh1.51. Diesel was Dh1.61. For the full year Super 98 averaged Dh1.73 a litre; Special 95 Dh1.62; E Plus 1.55 and diesel Dh1.67. Meanwhile Brent crude rose 52.4 per cent last year. Brent crude closed last week at US$55.52 per barrel. That put it down 2.3 per cent for the year to date. Fuel prices are set by a Ministry of Energy-led committee using "benchmark prices" that have not been publicly specified.

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Page 1: New base 994 special 31 january 2017 energy news

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 31 January 2017 - Issue No. 994 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

UAE petrol prices to rise in February;Special 95 by 5%, Dh2 a litre The National + NewsAgency + NewBase

The Ministry of Energy announced on Sunday that consumers will pay Dh2 per litre for Super 98, up 4.7 per cent from January; Special 95 will cost Dh1.89, up 5 per cent; and E Plus will cost Dh1.82, up 5.2 per cent. Diesel will cost Dh2, up 3 per cent.

In January motorists paid Dh1.91 for a litre of Super 98, Dh1.80 for Special 95 and Dh1.73 for E Plus. Diesel cost Dh1.94 a litre. Petrol prices in the UAE rose last year, but less sharply than international oil benchmarks did.

At the start of 2016 Super 98 was priced at Dh1.69 per litre, Special 95 at Dh1.58 and E Plus at Dh1.51. Diesel was Dh1.61. For the full year Super 98 averaged Dh1.73 a litre; Special 95 Dh1.62; E Plus 1.55 and diesel Dh1.67.

Meanwhile Brent crude rose 52.4 per cent last year. Brent crude closed last week at US$55.52 per barrel. That put it down 2.3 per cent for the year to date.

Fuel prices are set by a Ministry of Energy-led committee using "benchmark prices" that have not been publicly specified.

Page 2: New base 994 special 31 january 2017 energy news

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

UE: Etihad ESCO tenders for major Dubai rooftop solar project DEWA unit says it will design and install solar panels on a total of 640 villas in Hatta region of Dubai

DEWA unit says it will design and install solar panels on a total of 640 villas in Hatta region of Dubai

Etihad ESCO, an energy management services provider established by Dubai's state utility firm, has submitted a tender for the largest rooftop solar PV project in the region.

Etihad ESCO, a unit of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA), will design and install rooftop solar PV panels for a total of 640 villas in Hatta, a statement said.

The housing projects are being developed under the Hatta Comprehensive Development Plan, which was launched by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai.

According to Etihad ESCO, the project will be completed by end of 2018, and is expected to yield highest energy savings. The rooftop solar PVs will be connected to DEWA’s main grid through the Shams Dubai programme, which will save cost for residents living in these villas, once the project is completed.

Ali Al Jassim, CEO of Etihad ESCO, said: "For Hatta, it will be the largest rooftop solar PV project in the region, and will be implemented by Etihad Solar. Under this landmark tender, we will be installing rooftop solar PVs at villas in Hatta, and provide maintenance services for two years thereafter."

Etihad Solar is a dedicated division under Etihad ESCO established to distribute innovative solar power generation solutions across the energy sector in the UAE.

The statement said the Hatta project will also create technical, administrative and operational jobs.The plan is part of the Dubai Clean Energy Strategy 2050, which aims to reach clean energy supply targets of 25 percent by 2030, and 75 percent by 2050.

The AED1.3 billion ($353.9 million) Hatta Comprehensive Development Plan aims to boost the area’s social and economic attractiveness as a world-class environmental tourist destination.It covers three key areas including the economic and service sector, tourism and sports, and culture and education.

Page 3: New base 994 special 31 january 2017 energy news

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

South Sudan aims to more than double oil output in 2017/18 Source: Reuters

South Sudan plans to more than double oil production to 290,000 barrels per day (bpd) in fiscal 2017/2018, the finance minister said on Friday, indicating a target higher than the level recorded shortly before conflict erupted in late 2013.

The nation, which seceded from Sudan in 2011 but plunged into civil war just over two years later, aimed to add 160,000 bpd to existing output of 130,000 bpd in the financial year starting in July, Minister Stephen Dheiu Dau told Reuters.

'The resumption is underway,' he said in an interview in the South Sudanese capital Juba, referring to the plan to increase output. 'The conflict has affected the facilities, including the power.'

Increased output would provide desperately needed revenues for a government which since independence has relied on oil for almost all income, which has plummeted as production plunged and international crude prices slid.

Page 4: New base 994 special 31 january 2017 energy news

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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4

Oman’s Khazzan gas project eyes production by Q4 MUSCAT, 23 hours, 31 minutes ago

Oman’s Khazzan tight gas project is on schedule to begin first natural gas production on commercial basis in the fourth quarter of this year, a top government official said. “All wells are being drilled. Hopefully by June, we will start commissioning of the plant and in August, one of the gas processing trains will start operation and the second one will follow suit,” said Salim Al Aufi, undersecretary at the Ministry of Oil and Gas, was quoted as saying in a Times of Oman report.

While 50 wells will be drilled initially to start commercial production, the overall plan is to drill more than 300 wells, the report said.

Work on the Khazzan tight gas project began in 2014 and the completed development will eventually contribute roughly a third of Oman’s natural gas supply. BP Oman is lead partner in the project with a 60 per cent interest in Khazzan project, while Oman Oil Company

Exploration & Production holds 40 per cent, according to the project.

Page 5: New base 994 special 31 january 2017 energy news

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5

India: AG&P signs MoU with Hindustan LNG to build a new LNG import terminal in Andhra Pradesh… Source: AG&P

AG&P (Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific Company), the leading global integrator of LNG infrastructure solutions including LNG terminals and the supply chains that emanate from them, and Hindustan LNG (HLNG), a Hyderabad-based LNG import terminal development company, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to supply tolled gas to power stations in the East Godavari region of Andhra Pradesh, India. Under the agreement, AG&P will provide an integrated solution to deliver regasified LNG through a new LNG import terminal that AG&P will also design and build at the port in Andhra Pradesh.

The MoU was signed at the Partnership Summit 2017 organized by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), and the signing was graced by Chief Minister Shri N. Chandrababu Naidu. The MoU has launched a fully integrated solution for delivering tolled gas in India, including design, construction, financing, operations and maintenance of the new terminal, which will ensure a reliable and low-cost supply to power producers, fertilizer plants, cold storage and other industries in Andhra Pradesh and other markets along the east coast.

Speaking at the signing ceremony in Andhra Pradesh on 28th January, 2017, Dr. C.R. Prasad, Chairman of HLNG said: 'Andhra Pradesh is the ideal place for developing an LNG import facility to serve the growing energy demands of the east coast of India where existing gas-fired power projects urgently need a reliable supply of LNG. The partnership with AG&P will provide a strong platform to develop a fast-track and low-cost LNG import solution that enables the region to continue on its growth trajectory.'

AG&P will be responsible for designing and building all the required facilities for the import terminal, including a floating storage and mooring system, regasification terminal, related utilities and the provision of tolled gas to power plants and other users. AG&P will also carry out any necessary conversion works and, upon commissioning, ongoing operations and maintenance activities.

'It is a great privilege for AG&P to help implement India’s vision for clean, low-cost, flexible and reliable power. Andhra Pradesh is playing a critical role in manufacturing and trade. The state and its people are on a strong, upward trajectory. We see the provision of tolled gas to supply power and fuel to factories, homes and even transport in an environmentally clean way as crucial elements of Andhra Pradesh’s future. We are honoured to be a part of this exciting phase of the state’s development,' said Dr. Jose P. Leviste, Jr., Chairman of AG&P.

Page 6: New base 994 special 31 january 2017 energy news

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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Bangladesh to bid for Chevron gas fields after assessing reserves By Ruma Paul | DHAKA

Bangladesh is hiring an international firm to assess reserves at Chevron Corp's natural gas fields in the country before placing a formal bid to buy the assets, its energy minister told Reuters on Monday.

Energy-starved Dhaka meets half of its gas needs through the three Chevron-operated fields at Bibiyana, Jalalabad and Moulavi Bazar in the northeast of Bangladesh, highlighting their importance for the poor country. Bangladesh will make Chevron an offer once the reserves and other details have been assessed, Nasrul Hamid, state minister for power, energy and mineral resources, said.

Chevron, the second-largest United States-based oil producer, said in 2015 it planned to sell about $10 billion of assets by 2017 amid a prolonged slump in energy prices.

Last year, Chevron said it was in discussions about the potential sale of the three fields with an estimated value of $2 billion.

Bangladesh Gas Fields Co Ltd will next month select the company that will assess the reserves, Hamid said, adding that it might need the help of an international oil firm to further develop the fields.

Chevron sells its entire output from these fields to state oil company Petrobangla under a production-sharing contract. Under the terms of the contract, the Bangladesh government has the right of first refusal in any asset sale.

Denmark: Siemens largest 8 MW wind turbine up and running

Page 7: New base 994 special 31 january 2017 energy news

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Siemens

Siemens Wind Power has installed the latest version of its offshore direct drive wind turbine at the national test center in Østerild, Denmark, according to plan. The SWT-8.0-154 is rated at 8 megawatts (MW) and equipped with the proven 154 m rotor. The prototype was certified by DNV GL in January, confirming all relevant safety features for test operation. The new offshore turbine was installed on a steel tower at a hub height of 120 m. The prototype will be used for both mechanical and electrical testing. The final type certificate is expected for 2018. With the full commissioning of the prototype, Siemens will enter the final development phase for the new turbine that allows for up to 10 per cent higher annual energy production (AEP) under offshore wind conditions than the 7-MW model. The upgrade to 8 MW enables a rated power increase of more than 14 per cent from 7.0 to 8.0 MW. Similar to the previous upgrade from 6.0 MW to 7.0 MW, the 8-MW turbine will benefit from the established supply chain and proven offshore direct drive technology components. Since the higher rating will be achieved with only a few component upgrades including a new cooling concept and a new control system, customers will again benefit from key value drivers including fast time-to-market and low risk. "The installation of the SWT-8.0-154 prototype in Østerild is an important milestone in the success story of our offshore direct drive wind turbines," states Michael Hannibal, CEO Offshore at Siemens Wind Power. "The evolution based on our platform strategy demonstrates that innovation to lower the cost of wind energy can work without compromising the proven reliability of a technically mature product." The offshore direct drive is the youngest Siemens wind turbine platform. It has already made an impact: Recently 100 years of combined operation were reached with 2.5 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced. The total energy yield harvested by Siemens offshore direct drive generators installed by the end of 2016, corresponds to the energy demand of all households in the city of Munich for an entire year. This amount of electricity has been produced in less than six years, starting with the first SWT-6.0-120 prototype to large offshore projects now in operation like Westermost Rough in the UK and Gode Wind in German waters.

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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At the same time Siemens’ Offshore Direct Drive platform helped to avoid 1,250,000 metric tons of CO2 emissions. This corresponds to the emission of all cars in a city the size of Munich over a period of four months. The latest model SWT-8.0-154 is expected to enter serial production in 2019, the company said.

Currently approximately 150 Siemens offshore direct drive wind turbines have been handed over to customers. More than 600 units of Siemens’ offshore direct drive wind turbines have been sold since the launch of the large gearless turbine in 2011. ` The innovative product platform incorporates the unique technical experience from more than 2,300 installed offshore turbines and nearly 1,300 onshore direct-drive wind turbines, it said. -

Page 9: New base 994 special 31 january 2017 energy news

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9

US Natural gas-fired generating capacity likely to increase over next two years U.S. EIA, Electric Power Annual and Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory

The electricity industry is planning to increase natural gas-fired generating capacity by 11.2 gigawatts (GW) in 2017 and 25.4 GW in 2018, based on information reported to EIA. If these plants come online as planned, annual net additions in natural gas capacity would be at their highest levels since 2005.

On a combined basis, these 2017–18 additions would increase natural gas capacity by 8% from the capacity existing at the end of 2016. Depending on the timing and utilization of these plants, the new additions could help natural gas maintain its status as the primary energy source for power generation, even if natural gas prices rise moderately.

The upcoming expansion of natural gas-fired electricity generating capacity follows five years of net reductions of total coal-fired electricity generating capacity. Available coal-fired capacity fell by an estimated 47.2 GW between the end of 2011 and the end of 2016, equivalent to a 15% reduction in the coal fleet over the five-year period.

The electricity industry has been retiring some coal-fired generators and converting others to run on natural gas in response to the implementation of environmental regulations and to the sustained low cost of natural gas. The cost of natural gas delivered to power generators fell from an average price of $5.00 per million Btu (MMBtu) in 2014 to $3.23/MMBtu in 2015 and averaged $2.78/MMBtu from January through October 2016, the latest available data.

Expanded production from shale formations is one of the main reasons that natural gas prices have remained low in recent years. Many of the natural gas-fired power plants currently under construction are located in Mid-Atlantic states and Texas, where the nation’s major natural gas shale plays are located. Expanding natural gas pipeline networks also help support the growth in natural gas-fired electric generating capacity.

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Based on projections in EIA’s January 2017 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), natural gas prices are expected to increase in both 2017 and 2018. Rising natural gas prices could lead developers to postpone or cancel some of the upcoming power plant additions.

Construction timelines for these plants are relatively short: more than half of the natural gas-fired generating capacity scheduled to come online in 2017 and 2018 was not yet under construction as of October 2016.

Rising natural gas prices could also encourage power generators to lower their use of natural gas-fired capacity. Despite the additions to capacity in 2017, the STEO forecast share of total U.S. generation supplied by natural gas falls from 34% in 2016 to 32% in 2017. In contrast, coal’s share of generation is projected to rise from 30% to 32%.

By 2018, however, the scheduled expansion of overall capacity fueled by natural gas is expected to more than offset the effect of higher natural gas prices and potentially reduced utilization, resulting in a slight increase in natural gas’s share of total U.S. electricity generation.

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US:EIA’s weekly natural gas storage data now include measures of sampling variability

Source: U.S. EIA, Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Starting with the release of data for the week ending January 20, 2017, EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) now provides information about the statistical properties of published estimates of weekly working natural gas levels and their net changes. The methodology for the storage data itself, however, is unchanged.

The WNGSR provides estimates of working gas in storage—the amount of natural gas that can be withdrawn to satisfy market demand—based on a sample of storage operators in the Lower 48 states.

Like other sample surveys, the WNGSR is subject to sampling error. To help users better understand sampling variability in WNGSR values, a new table provides

The standard error for estimates of weekly net changes in working gas levels. Standard error is a measure of the sampling variability of an estimate based on all possible samples that could have been selected using the chosen sample design.

The coefficient of variation for estimates of weekly working gas storage levels. The coefficient of variation, or relative standard error, presents the standard error as a percentage of the published working gas storage estimate.

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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

EIA has also estimated these measures of sampling variability for all weeks since April 2015. Since that time, the standard errors for estimates of weekly net change have averaged about 2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the Lower 48 states and about 1 Bcf for each region. The coefficients of variation for stocks are typically about 1% for the Lower 48 states, and they

range between 1% and 5% for the regions. For example, the larger coefficients of variation for the working gas estimates at the salt facilities in the South Central region likely resulted from the variable activity at these high-deliverability natural gas storage facilities. In contrast, the comparatively regular activity at aquifer storage sites in the Midwest contributes to the lower coefficients of variation for the Midwest region.

The standard error can be used to construct a confidence interval centered about the estimate. For example, the published weekly estimate of the net withdrawal for January 20, 2017, is 119 Bcf, and the standard error of the net withdrawal is 2.9 Bcf. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 113 Bcf to 125 Bcf.

For the Lower 48 states, the standard errors tend to be slightly larger during weeks when net changes in natural gas inventories are relatively large in absolute value, such as those weeks when changes exceeded 100 Bcf.

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For the 53 report weeks ending in 2016, none had net injections that exceeded 100 Bcf, but in 10 of those weeks, net withdrawals exceeded 100 Bcf. For those 10 weeks, the standard error ranged from 2.2 Bcf to 5.5 Bcf, while the standard error ranged from 1.0 Bcf to 3.2 Bcf for the other 43 weeks.

Estimates of working gas storage reported in the WNGSR for the last week of each month precede the estimates of working gas that are reported in the Natural Gas Monthly by roughly two months.

Because the estimates reported in the Natural Gas Monthly come from a census of all known storage operators, the monthly values have no sampling errors. Since April 2015, all working gas levels reported in the Natural Gas Monthly did not deviate noticeably from the 95% confidence band constructed from the WNGSR weekly estimates and their standard errors.

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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NewBase 31 January 2017 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Oil prices dip as rising US output offsets OPEC-led cuts Reuters + newBase

Oil prices dipped on Tuesday as rising U.S. drilling activity offset efforts by OPEC and other producers to cut output in a move to prop up the market.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $55.16 per barrel at 0421 GMT, down 7 cents from their last close. Since their January peak, Brent has lost over 5.5 percent in value.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $52.44 a barrel, down 19 cents from their previous settlement, and WTI is down 2.85 percent since its January peak.

The falls reflect a sentiment that efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut output by almost 1.8 barrel per day (bpd) in order to end overproduction were so far not big enough to offset rising U.S. drilling.

"Crude oil prices continued to struggle as traders remained concerned about increasing drilling activity in the U.S.," ANZ bank said on Tuesday.

Following months of rising drilling activity, U.S. oil production has risen by 6.3 percent since July last year to almost 9 million bpd, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

U.S. bank Goldman Sachs estimates that year-on-year U.S. oil "production will rise by 290,000 bpd in 2017" if a backlog on rigs that are still to become operational is accounted for.

Oil price special

coverage

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With the differing outlook between global oil markets and that in the United States, traders said a renewed focus on the spread between Brent and WTI futures has emerged.

The Brent premium over WTI for March delivery is currently over $2.7 per barrel, reflecting a tighter global market as OPEC's cuts bite and a more oversupplied U.S. as drilling continues to rise.

Yet by November this year, this Brent premium is down to just over $1 a barrel.

"You've already seen U.S. crude coming into Asia and Europe, a straders take advantage of arbitrage between the U.S. and the restof the world," one crude trader in Singapore said. "But at somestage, that exported U.S. crude will get priced into the global market and out of the American one, bringing down the spread between Brent and WTI."

OPEC Convinces Investors That Its Oil Output Cuts Are Real by Mark Shenk

PEC appears to have persuaded investors that it’s making good on promised production cuts. Money managers are the most optimistic on West Texas Intermediate oil prices in at least a decade as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers reduce crude output. Saudi Arabia has said more than 80 percent of the targeted reduction of 1.8 million barrels a day has been implemented. Oil shipments from OPEC are plunging this month, according to tanker-tracker Petro-Logistics SA.

“All the signs are pointing to a pretty significant OPEC cut,” Mike Wittner, head of commodities research at Societe Generale SA in New York, said by telephone. “Until this week we were only getting data from the producers, now the tanker traffic seems to be supporting this view.” OPEC will reduce supply by 900,000 barrels a day in January, the first month of the accord’s implementation, said the Geneva-based Petro-Logistics. That’s about 75 percent of the cut that

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the producer group agreed to make. Eleven non-members led by Russia are to curb their output in support. Hedge funds boosted their net-long position, or the difference between bets on a price increase and wagers on a decline, by 6.1 percent in the week ended Jan. 24, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. WTI rose 1.3 percent to $53.18 a barrel in the report week. The U.S. benchmark slipped 1.1 percent to $52.57 at 10:52 a.m. OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Algeria have said they’ve cut output this month by even more than was required, while Russia said it’s also curbing production faster than was agreed. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said Jan. 22 that adherence has been so good that OPEC probably won’t need to extend the accord when it expires in the middle of the year. Shale Headwind

The OPEC-engineered price rally has spurred a surge in drilling in the U.S. shale patch. Rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose by 15 to 566 last week, the highest since November 2015, according to Baker Hughes Inc. “There’s one headwind in the oil market: increased U.S. shale production,” Jay Hatfield, a New York-based portfolio manager of the InfraCap MLP exchange-traded fund with $175 million in assets, said by telephone. “U.S. output in 2017 will be 1 million barrels a day higher than last year.” U.S. crude production climbed to 8.96 million barrels a day in the week ended Jan. 20, the highest since April, according to the Energy Information Administration. That’s already closing in on the EIA’s latest 2017 output forecast of 9 million barrels a day that was issued Jan. 10. The net-long position in WTI rose by 21,429 futures and options to 370,939, the most in data going back to 2006. Longs rose 3.7 percent to a record high, while shorts slipped 11 percent. In the Brent market, money managers reduced the net-long position by 3.1 percent to 448,352 during the week, according to data from ICE Futures Europe. Longs slipped, while shorts rose. In fuel markets, net-bullish bets on gasoline fell 3.4 percent to 61,511 contracts as futures

decreased 1.5 percent in the report week. Money managers increased wagers on higher ultra low sulfur diesel prices by 1.3 percent to 34,978 contracts, while futures slid 0.4 percent. “For the time being the market is more focused on the OPEC cuts than about how fast U.S. shale drillers are returning,” Wittner said. “There may come a point soon when the support provided by OPEC will be outweighed by the prospect of rising U.S. production. When that happens there will be a big shift in investor sentiment.”

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NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 31 Jan. 2017

U.S. is benifiting from OPEC oil control and reduction Julian Lee

OPEC's oil-market management and in particular its repeated attempts to raise prices have done more than any other single factor to boost U.S. oil production and set America on the road to some sort of energy independence, whatever that might be.

Far from vilifying OPEC, U.S. senators should be erecting statues to the 13 men who are helping to "make America great again."

In a written question for the record, Senator Ed Markey asked secretary of state nominee Rex Tillerson whether he agreed "that the United States should unequivocally reject any efforts by OPEC to collaborate to manipulate oil markets and take all measures within our power to reduce OPEC's ability to artificially limit production or increase prices."

Tillerson's response:

Yes. While it is very important for the United States to engage with other oil producing nations, I do not believe that we should collaborate with OPEC to manipulate oil markets.

He said nothing about taking measures against OPEC.

Some may see that as a reflection of Tillerson's long oil industry career, but I think it runs deeper.

Slippery Slope

WTI was already falling heavily before OPEC abandoned output restraints

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The U.S. shale industry wouldn't have taken off as it did, creating all those jobs along the way, if OPEC hadn't cut oil supplies after the 2008 price crash and then managed things to keep costs above $100 a barrel. Entrepreneurship, ingenuity and mineral rights all played their part in the shale boom, but the take-up of technology wouldn't have been anywhere near as fast or extensive if somebody else hadn't given up their own market share. Besides, it's much easier to make mistakes and learn what works and what doesn't in a $100 oil world than in a $50 one.

If you're not convinced, then take a look at what happened when OPEC stopped manipulating oil markets.

In June 2014, the group decided to roll over its official output target of 30 million barrels a day for another six months. Before it next met in November, actual production had risen by about 1 million barrels and oil had dropped by 30 percent, pushing WTI down to $73.69. And that was before Saudi Arabia persuaded other members to abandon restraint. Once the restrictions were lifted and volumes rose further, prices collapsed, sending WTI to a 13-year low of $26.21 a barrel.

Was that in America's interest? Well it certainly cut gasoline prices, which was a bonus for drivers, and it put money back in consumers' pockets. But it had a delayed negative effect on U.S. GDP growth, which fell from around 3 percent as oil prices started to weaken to close to 1.5 percent amid $50 oil. Oh, and it decimated the U.S. oil patch, with a loss of about 14 percent of the workforce.

Now, if like Ed Markey, you're an "environmental hero", that might seem like a good thing. But I'm not so sure.

Rigged

U.S. oil drilling has closely followed moves in WTI, with a four-month time lag

Note: Indexed for easier comparison. Week ending Jan. 6, 2012 = 100.

Yes, high prices increase the rewards for exploitation of the black stuff and make it profitable to produce oil that might otherwise stay in the ground. But they also make it much easier for frontier renewable-energy technologies to break in. Just as $100 oil supported the birth of U.S. shale oil, it's done the same for wind and solar power, too. That's one of the reasons there was so little outcry from European governments over rising oil prices in the early 2000s -- they made it much easier to pursue green-energy policies.

The short-term benefits to oil of high prices, underwritten by OPEC output cuts, may ultimately serve to hasten its demise.Tillerson's response should warm the hearts of oil fans and detractors alike. No, the U.S. won't join OPEC's market management. It's quite happy to let others bear the burden of supporting prices. But it won't condemn the practice either. OPEC's market machinations will boost the U.S. oil sector in the immediate future, but hasten crude's demise as the world's primary fuel source longer term.

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &

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