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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
March 2016
AGL EV Advantage
Energy Autonomy for Electric Vehicle Fleets
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
• PEV = Plug-In Electric Vehicle
• PHEV = Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle
• BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle
• WoLC = Whole of Life Cost
• EA = Energy Autonomy
• LCOE = Levelised Cost Of Electricity
($/kWh)
Acronym Warning…
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
1. Introduction
2. Vehicle Types and the PEV Market
3. The Energy Autonomous Fleet System,
Modelling, Simulation and Optimisation
4. Remote Area Case Study
5. Conclusion + Recommendations
Agenda…
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Sept 2015
Introduction
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
“The intersection of the distributed energy
ecosystem system and the vehicle fleet”
Introduction…
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
New Energy ‘Across the energy ecosystem’
Create 1 million smart connections across homes and businesses by 2020
Become preeminent customer choice for Competitive and Connected energy
products and services that provide Convenience, Comfort and Control
Distributed Generation Energy Storage
Electric Vehicle Services Home Energy Management
Digital Metering
Demand Response
Emerging Technologies
Commercial Service & Repair
Embedded Networks Transport LNG & CNG
Large Commercial Distributed Heat & Power
Small Commercial Distributed Heat & Power
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Sept 2015
Vehicle Types and Market Outlook
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Australian PEV market - large by 2030 Market drivers and indicators are on track
Global and Australian PEV markets are accelerating:
» Falling prices – Battery prices dropping, volumes increasing
» More choice – New vehicles and new players
» WoLC difference narrowing – Cap-ex decrease with op-ex saving
» Driver acceptance – 2nd-gen product with user experience
» Emissions abatement – Zero tailpipe for clean air and zero lifecycle when using renewables
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Tota
l A
ust
PEV
fle
et
'00
0s o
f U
nit
s
Year
Source: Brown, CSIRO, AECOM, ESAA, AGL Modelling
New vehicle sales:
o 2020 = 36k PEV units
o 2030 = 2.4M PEV units
Electricity demand:
o 2020 = 0.17 TWh
o 2030 = 5.75 TWh
PEV market growth to 2.4m vehicles by 2030 Early-adopter phase now but asset value will grow
PEV asset value:
o 2020 = $0.5b
o 2030 = $11.3b
Cumulative carbon abated:
o 2020 = 0.1M t-CO2e
o 2025 = 1.7M t-CO2e
o 2030 = 6.0M t-CO2e
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
The Vehicle – Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
40-50km elec-only operation + 500km
on petrol
12 kWh li-ion Pack
Mid-size SUV
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Sept 2015
The System and Development of Tools and Processes
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Topology – Actual vs Simplified Model
22 kWh Li-ion
Battery
LEVEL 1
16A
Single
Phase
Charge
Point
DC/AC
Inverter
and MPPT
DC/AC
Inverter
and MPPT
DC/AC
Inverter
and MPPT
DC/AC/DC
Bi-
Directional
Inverter
DC/AC/DC
Bi-
Directional
Inverter
GRID CONNECTION
Li-ion
Battery
Pack
19.4kWh
Li-ion
Battery
Pack
19.4kWh
LEVEL 1
16A
Single
Phase
Charge
Point
22 kWh Li-ion
Battery
INVERTER BANKAC BUS
DC BUS
SOLAR PV
EV CHARGING
Battery Box #1 Battery Box #1AC POWER
DC POWER
MP
PT
MP
PT
ACTUAL MODELLED
Charge
Point
Variable
Current
DC / AC / DC
Bi -
Directional
Inverter
GRID CONNECTION
Li - ion
Battery
Pack
Variable
Size +
Currents
1 to 10
Charge
Points
Variable
Current
1 to 10 PEV Li -
ion Battery
Packs Variable
Current
Nominal 48 V - DC
SOLAR PV Variable Size to 100 KW
PEV CHARGING
1 to 10 PEVs
Battery Box
DC POWER
1 PEV Li - ion
Battery Pack
Variable
Current
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Inputs and Outputs Inputs:
1. PEV fleet size
2. Battery Storage Capacity (kWh)
3. Battery Storage Discharge rate
(A)
4. PEV charging rate (A)
5. PEV energy consumption
(Wh/km) and drive cycle
6. Solar PV size (KW)
7. Irradiance and Ambient
Temperature
Primary Models:
1. Energy Autonomy (%)
2. Battery Cycles
3. CAPEX ($)
4. LCOE ($/kWh)
Secondary Models
1. Running Cost ($/km)
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Development of Tools and Processes ‘Virtual Engineering’
Electrical
Model
Thermal
Model
Simulink/
Simscape
Response
Surface
Modelling
(RSM)
Design of
Experiment
Matlab/Model
Based Tool Box
Model Based
Toolbox
Optimisation
Toolbox
Multi-
Objective
Optimisation
Customer
Proposal
Matlab
Financial
Model
Proposal
Generated
based on
Customer
Inputs
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Sept 2015
Case Study and Findings
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Case Study - Example ‘Remote Area PEV Fleet’
6 Mitsubishi PHEVs (3.45KW PEV Charge Limit, 100KW of PV, 146kWh of Stationary Battery Storage, 15.5KW of Battery Storage Charging/Discharging Power Limit, EA = 98.5%, LCOE
= 0.75 $/kWh or 0.135 $/km)
Battery Storage (kWh)
Battery Storage Charge Limit (A)
Solar PV Size (KW) PEV Charging Limit
(A)
LC
OE (
$/kW
h)
EA
(%
)
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Case Study - Example ‘Running Costs compared to Petrol’
• 2.3 MJ/km Petrol Baseline – Outlander (6.7 L/100km)
• Petrol Baseline running cost = 0.074 $/km (1.1 $/L)
• MJ/km PHEV Outlander = 1.1 MJ/km (Total Electrical +
Petrol)
• MJ/km PHEV Outlander = 0.482 MJ/km (Electrical)
• So LCOE of 0.55 $/kWh = 0.074 $/km (Electrical mode)
Conclusion: You can have a high LCOE and still have
economic (Electric) driving when compared to
incumbent liquid fuels even at current low oil price
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Simulation– General Trends ‘Findings’
• PEV charging power has a material impact on energy
autonomy and system LCOE
• Solar PV size needs to be greater than 100KW for fleets
greater than ~6 and stationary battery storage needs to
be of order 150kWh (in the scenario investigated)
• Battery storage charging/discharging power has a
material impact on energy autonomy
• Battery storage capacity has the most impact on system
economics, followed by PEV fleet size and vehicle duty
cycle
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
Sept 2015
Conclusion
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> AGL EV Advantage
> March 2016
1. Energy Autonomy can be achieved at reasonable price (at
the wheels) even at todays prices (compared to Diesel)
2. Charging power of the PEV very important. ‘Intelligent
Charging’ can significantly increase energy autonomy and
lower costs
3. Charging/Discharging power of the battery storage unit
and inverter/converter combination important
4. PHEV a good potential fit for remote power fleet
applications
5. Vehicle application and duty cycle has a significant impact
on energy autonomy
Conclusion ‘Remote Area PEV Fleets’
