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Rob Symes; Predict or Die Presentation

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From the UK Recruiter Technology Showcase Event June 2014. Rob Symes of Outside View

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Page 1: Rob Symes; Predict or Die Presentation
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SCIENCE + BUSINESS

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WHAT IS OUR STORY

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5 YEARS AGO

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5 YEARS AGO

2008

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5 YEARS AGO

2008

Within 12 months I becameManpower’s top biller

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5 YEARS AGO

2008

Within 12 months I becameManpower’s top biller

2010Within a year I co-founded

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WINS BLUE CHIP CLIENTS LIKE BSKYB, UK BROADBAND, PCCW, TEAM TELECOM,

THE CLOUD

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FRUSTRATION

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FRUSTRATIONBUSINESS WAS FOCUSSING ON THE

WRONG THINGS

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SO I GOT ON A PLANE AND WENT LOOKING FOR ANSWERS

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SO I GOT ON A PLANE AND WENT LOOKING FOR ANSWERS

NEW YORK

PARIS

SAN

FRANCISCO

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WHEN I GOT BACK TO LONDON I MADE A DOCUMENTARY ABOUT

WHAT I’D LEARED

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DATA IS THE NEW OIL

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IF WE ARE WHAT WE MEASURE,WHY NOT MEASURE WHAT WE

WANT TO BECOME

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IF WE ARE WHAT WE MEASURE,WHY NOT MEASURE WHAT WE

WANT TO BECOME

COLLECT

UNDERSTAND

PREDICT

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IF WE ARE WHAT WE MEASURE,WHY NOT MEASURE WHAT WE

WANT TO BECOME

COLLECT

UNDERSTAND

PREDICT

DATA MINING,MACHINE LEARNING

STATISTICS, DASHBOARDS,VISUALISATION

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IF WE ARE WHAT WE MEASURE,WHY NOT MEASURE WHAT WE

WANT TO BECOME

COLLECT

UNDERSTAND

PREDICT

DATA MINING,MACHINE LEARNING

STATISTICS, DASHBOARDS,VISUALISATION

MOST BUSINESSGET TO HERE

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IF WE ARE WHAT WE MEASURE,WHY NOT MEASURE WHAT WE

WANT TO BECOME

COLLECT

UNDERSTAND

PREDICT

DATA MINING,MACHINE LEARNING

STATISTICS, DASHBOARDS,VISUALISATION

MOST BUSINESSESGET TO HERE

THIS IS WHEREELITE PERFORMANCEHAPPENS

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STRUCTURED DATA OTHER

UNSTRUCTURED DATA

DECISIONENGINE

INSIGHTS VISUALS

CRMLinkedinFacebook

twitter

EMAILPHONEONLINE

PIPELINE PREDICTIONELITE PERFORMANCE

PREDICTIVE LEAD SCORING

DASHBOARDS

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MACHINE LEARNING

WHICH IS THE WOMAN?

GROUND TRUTH

LEARNING PREDICTION

HISTORICAL EXAMPLES

FEATUREEXTRACTION

TRAINED ALGORITHM

SOME NEW DATA

Girl Boy

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PREDICT OR DIE

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FIVE TIMES BETTERTHAN AVERAGE

5X

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WHAT IS SUCCESS?

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BIAS

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BIASOVERCONFIDENCE

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BIASOVERCONFIDENCE

FALSE CONSENSUS

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BIASOVERCONFIDENCE

FALSE CONSENSUS

CONFIRMATION BIAS

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BIASOVERCONFIDENCE

FALSE CONSENSUS

CONFIRMATION BIAS

LOSS AVERSION

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WHAT CAN YOU CONTROL?

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PROBABILITIESNOT OPPORTUNITIES

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25 WEEKS TO SELL A HOUSE

20 WEEKS NOT TOSELL A HOUSE

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SAME EFFORT

DIFFERENT RESULT

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PROPERTY COMPANIESRARELY SELL OVER 50%OF THEIR INSTRUCTED

PROPERTIES

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PREDICTION

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AFTER ONE WEEK, THE OUTSIDE VIEW

CAN PREDICT WHICHHOUSES WILL SELL

AND WHICH WILL NOT

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THAT SAVES

19 WEEKSWORTH OF EFFORT

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ELITE RECRUITER?

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QUALITY NOT

QUANTITY

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LET MACHINES WORK

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THANK YOU