Speech Di Futurologia

Leave No Stone Unturned: spunti dalla futurologia Bruno Sfogliarini per POPAI ITALIA - “No Thrills - No Frills”

Milano San Felice - 3 dicembre 2008

No Thrills, No Frills • April 15, 20232

Logica dell’interventoBuoni propositi prima di iniziare

La crisi è veramente in atto, sì o no?La crisi è veramente in atto, sì o no? Contributi quantitativi in risposta alla domanda

Trend strutturali di cambiamento che non si possono arrestareTrend strutturali di cambiamento che non si possono arrestare Lo shift dei valori culturali verso il post-materialismo Consumatori, infrastrutture, comunicazioni: i 3 mondi

C’è ancora speranza? ci sono soluzioni, spunti e possibilitàC’è ancora speranza? ci sono soluzioni, spunti e possibilità Scenari futuri secondo alcune fonti accreditate

Leave no stone unturnedLeave no stone unturned Un tentativo di interpretazione e di call for action


Previsioni del mercato farmaceutico mondialePrevisioni del mercato farmaceutico mondiale This year, the U.S. pharmaceutical market, the world’s largest, is forecast to grow 1 - 2 percent to $287 - $297

billion, down from the 2 - 3 percent rate expected earlier this year. In 2009, the expected 1 - 2 percent growth rate in the U.S. will result in sales of $292 - $302 billion, and reflects

the impact of continuing patent expirations, fewer new product launches and a tighter economy.

(tratto da IMS - 2009 Global Pharmaceutical Market and Therapy Forecast)

Previsioni del PIL italianoPrevisioni del PIL italiano All’interno dell’Uem, la recessione sarà distribuita in modo abbastanza uniforme tra i diversi Paesi, con

l’unica differenza costituita dal fatto che la crescita italiana sarà l’unica ad essere già negativa con la chiusura del 2008. (tratto da Prometeia – Rapporto di previsione, ottobre 2008)

Indicatori precoci del mercatoIndicatori precoci del mercato A novembre cala la fiducia ed emergono segnali di contrazione del credito alle imprese manifatturiere .

L’indice, considerato al netto dei fattori stagionali e calcolato in base 2000=100, scende a 72,2 da 76,9 dello scorso mese, sui minimi dall’agosto 1993

Calano anche nettamente livelli e aspettative sugli ordini, sia sul mercato interno sia su quello estero; il calo della domanda ha anche forti ripercussioni negative sulle attese di produzione

Per la prima volta da quando l’ISAE ha inserito nuove domande su possibili restrizioni di credito collegate alla crisi in atto, aumenta la quota di imprese che segnala un peggioramento delle condizioni di accesso ai finanziamenti

Aumenta inoltre la quota di imprese che hanno avuto recenti contatti con le banche ma che non hanno ottenuto il finanziamento sperato; il mancato finanziamento è dovuto ad un esplicito rifiuto da parte degli operatori finanziari

Il calo della fiducia è diffuso a tutti i principali settori: l’indice scende soprattutto nei beni di investimento ed in quelli intermedi, mentre registra una contrazione minore nei beni di consumo

Tratto da ISAE - Comunicato stampa del 26 novembre 2008

Forse la crisi non è ancora in atto,

ma tutti se la aspettano!

La crisi è veramente in atto, sì o no?Contributi quantitativi in risposta alla domanda


Lo shift dei valori culturali verso il post-materialismoTrend strutturali di cambiamento che non si possono arrestare

Changing Values among Western Publics from 1970 to 2006Changing Values among Western Publics from 1970 to 2006 Survey evidence from six West European societies revealed large differences between the value

priorities of older and younger generations. Among the older cohorts, ‘materialist’ values, emphasising economic and physical security, were overwhelmingly predominant – but as one moved from older to younger birth cohorts, ‘postmaterialist’ values, emphasising autonomy and self-expression, became increasingly widespread.

A large body of evidence … points to the conclusion that major cultural changes are occurring, and that they reflect a process of intergenerational change linked with rising levels of existential security.

In the shift from materialist to post-materialist values, the massive differences between the values of young and old that were present in 1970 have dwindled. The birth cohorts born before World War II continue to place significantly more emphasis on materialist values than to the younger cohorts in Western Europe, but the post-war cohorts show relatively similar values. This means that intergenerational population replacement no longer exerts as strong a pressure towards post-materialist values as it once did.

But with the broader survival/self-expression values dimension, large intergenerational value differences are still present, which implies that West European publics will continue to show significant movement toward self-expression values as younger cohorts replace older ones in the adult population.

Tratto da Ronald F. Inglehart - West European Politics - January–March 2008


Lo shift dei valori culturali verso il post-materialismoTrend strutturali

World Values SurveyWorld Values Survey This cultural map plots out how countries

relate to each other on a double axis of values (ranging from ‘traditional’ to ‘secular-rational’ on the vertical and from ‘survival’ to ‘self-expression’ on the horizontal scale).

In societies near the ‘traditional’ side of the traditional/secular-rational axis, religion is very important. This usually always implies a strong emphasis on family values, deference to authority, rejection of abortion, divorce, euthanasia and suicide, and even seems to predict a very nationalistic outlook on life.

The other axis represents the shift from a society dominated by the struggle for survival to one where survival is a given, and the emphasis of the ‘struggle’ is on subjective well-being, quality of life and self-expression.


Consumatori, infrastrutture, comunicazioni: i 3 mondiTrend strutturali di cambiamento che non si possono arrestare

Trend demograficiTrend demografici Aging population Changing families Migration Population growth Urbanisation

Trend dovuti all’incremento di ricchezzaTrend dovuti all’incremento di ricchezza Asia rising Consumerism Middle-class growth Time pressure Personal Outsourcing

Tratto da Andy Hines - the Futurist - 2008



Trend culturaliTrend culturali Cultural multipolarity Media spread Cultural flow

Trend infrastrutturaliTrend infrastrutturali Electrification Networked world Rising mobility

Trend valorialiTrend valoriali Ethical consumption Women’s power Social freedom Transparency




W1W1 Consists of fewer than a billion people in the affluent countries, including the United

States, western Europe, Japan, South Korea and Australia

W2W2 Is the large segment of 3 to 4 billion in the middle, in nations that are relatively balanced

in terms of need and resources, though still vulnerable to setbacks. Some W2 nations, such as India and China, are growing particularly rapidly, while nations in other regions, such as in Latin America and eastern Europe, less so

W3W3 World consists of the 1 to 2 billion people who are in dire straits, including most of

Africa, Bangladesh and Haiti




La povertà relativa in Italia nel 2007La povertà relativa in Italia nel 2007 In Italia, le famiglie che nel 2007 si trovano in condizioni di povertà relativa sono 2 milioni

653 mila e rappresentano l’11,1% delle famiglie residenti; nel complesso sono 7 milioni 542 mila gli individui poveri, il 12,8% dell’intera popolazione.

Le famiglie a rischio di povertà e quelle più povereLe famiglie a rischio di povertà e quelle più povere La classificazione delle famiglie in povere e non povere, ottenuta attraverso la linea

convenzionale di povertà, può essere maggiormente articolata utilizzando soglie aggiuntive, come quelle che corrispondono all’80%, al 90%, al 110% e al 120% di quella standard. Tali soglie permettono di individuare diversi gruppi di famiglie, distinti in base alla distanza della loro spesa mensile equivalente dalla linea di povertà.

W1, W2 e W3 in Italia e nel Mezzogiorno!W1, W2 e W3 in Italia e nel Mezzogiorno! il concetto dei 3 mondi si può applicare anche solo al caso del Paese Italia:

Fonte: ISTAT – novembre 2008

% famiglie I TALIA MezzogiornoW1 - Non povere 81% 65%W2 - Quasi povere 14% 25%W3 - Povere 5% 10%


C’è ancora speranza? ci sono soluzioni, spunti e possibilitàScenari futuri secondo alcune fonti accreditate

State of the Future – University of the United NationsState of the Future – University of the United Nations

The future continues to get better for most of the world, but a series of tipping points could drastically alter global prospects

Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to rising food and energy prices, failing states, falling water tables, climate change, decreasing water-food-energy supply per person, desertification, and increasing migrations due to political, environmental, and economic conditions

However, advances in science, technology, education, economics, and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today. Consider the extraordinary waste of human talent through violence, neglect, poor education, corruption, and other forms of inhumanity. Consider the enormous waste of investments into entertainment and media focused on the worst behaviors of humanity, products that make us unhealthy, and actions that pit one group against another. Surely cutting back on such waste could release the resources and talent needed to make the world work better for all

Tratto da 2008 State of the Future – The Millennium Project – World Federation of UN Associations



State of the Future – University of the United NationsState of the Future – University of the United Nations

After 12 years of the Millennium Project’s global futures research, it is increasingly clear that the world has the resources to address our common challenges. Coherence and direction are lacking

Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve such systems. We are the first people to act via Internet with like-minded individuals around the world. We have the ability to connect the right ideas to resources and people to help address our global and local challenges

This is a unique time in history. Mobile phones, the Internet, international trade, language translation, and jet planes are giving birth to an interdependent humanity that can create and implement global strategies to improve the prospects for humanity



Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all?Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all?

Suggested measures

1.1 Atmospheric carbon dioxide drops for at least five years in a row

1.2 GDP increases while greenhouse gas emissions decreases for five years in a row

1.3 The global acreage in forests increases for five years

1.4 Average calories per capita per day exceed 2000 and the number of hungry people diminishes by half

1.5 Proven natural resources increase by 30%



Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all? New ideas!Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all? New ideas!Health Care

Average calories per capita lying between 2000 and an upper bound in fat countriesEducation

The improving spread of education on sustainability including schools, organizations and communitiesThe number of educated people increase for at least five years in a row

EconomicsDecreasing total non-renewable energy consumption while the GDP increases for five consecutive yearsDecreasing energy use per capita in America while standard of living increasesMany nation states adopt a measure of national productivity that is inclusive of all the costs and benefits of production, replacing GNP/GDPDecreasing or stabilization in the use of natural resources per capitaDecreasing in overall agriculture subsidiesEnergy output/input ratio in agricultural systems being equal to 1 or moreExtensive spread of monitoring of the complete lifespan of products and materials, from mining to landfill, providing cradle-to-grave data on true consumption patterns throughout the world The price for all commodities being set to reflect their natural costs without any form of government price control or subsidy …



Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all? New ideas!Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all? New ideas!Environment

Significant growth of green technology and green areasStability in the amount of biodiversity in the 20 most relevant natural sitesReduction of desert areasGreatly improving ratio of water use vs. water disposedStabilization of global temperatureReduction in harmful gas (NOX, SO2) for at least five years in a rowSustainability in food production --not wasting topsoil, leaching fertilizer, etc.

SocialDiminishing of the number of hungry people by halfA decreasing gap between rich and poorAn acceptable balance between soil and populationIncreasing the number of educated people for at least five years in a rowDiminishing number of wars in the world for at least five years in a rowDeclining birthrate for 5 years in the ten nations with the highest birthratesDeclining in the four-year running average of the number of migrants Stabilization in population growth in so-called developing regions …



Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all? New ideas!Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all? New ideas!

PoliticalAgreements by all nations indicating their belief that change is a priorityDiminishing of terrorism by more than halfCreating a World Environment OrganizationUS promising or undertaking emissions decreases in its atmospheric CO2, and accepting the UNFCCCAll developed countries promising or undertaking emissions decreases in their atmospheric CO2An office of seek and of fight against the infringements related to the environment and public health

S&TDoubling in the number of buildings (private and institutional) that use solar energy, for 5 years in a rowOil producer and high consumer companies being obliged to invest in carbon sequestration research and implementationIncreasing number of scientific papers produced per headInnovative technologies providing substitution for 20% of natural resourcesAvailability of economically feasible, distributed, modular technologies that are developed to support human life on Earth and minimize impacts on the surrounding environment



Living Planet Report - WWFLiving Planet Report - WWF In the 2030s, biological capacity equal to two planet Earths would be required to keep

up with humanity’s resource demands and waste production Fortunately, humanity can change course. Instead of continuing business-as-usual,

we should strive to end overshoot by midcentury Ending overshoot means closing the gap between humanity’s footprint and available

biocapacity



Five factors determine the size of this gap. On the demand side, the footprint is a function of population size, the goods and services each person consumes, and the resource and waste intensity of these goods and services. On the supply side, biocapacity is determined by the amount of biologically productive area available, and the productivity of that area.

There are many different strategies that could reduce the gap between human demand on nature and the availability of ecological capacity. Each of these strategies can be represented as a sustainability wedge that shifts the business-as-usual path towards one in which, when these wedges are combined, overshoot is eliminated



Sustainability Wedges - Living Planet Report – WWFSustainability Wedges - Living Planet Report – WWF

EnergyExpansion of energy efficiencyGrowth in the use of renewable energyExpansion of carbon capture and storage

Population and ConsumptionTransfers of technology from high-income countriesInvest in resource-efficient infrastructureEmpowering women with greater education and economic opportunitiesImproving access to voluntary family planning counsellingPromoting good family governance

Global TradeIncrease consumer awareness and interest in sustainabilityIncrease market share of ecologically and socially sustainable goods and services



The Hydrogen Economy – The Foundation of Economic Trends – Jeremy RifkinThe Hydrogen Economy – The Foundation of Economic Trends – Jeremy Rifkin Hydrogen has the potential to end the world's reliance on oil from the Persian Gulf,

the most politically unstable and volatile region of the world. It will dramatically cut down on carbon dioxide emissions and mitigate the effects of global warming. And because hydrogen is so plentiful, people who have never before had access to electricity will be able to generate it


Leave No Stone Unturned:(Pharma) Companies Pursuing New Paths To Success

“Manufacturers are being forced to consider avenues for growth and thresholds of return that might have been ignored in earlier times”

from Intelligence.360Summer 2008 editionwww.imshealth.com


Bibliografia essenzialeSpunti per ulteriori approfondimenti

2009 IMS Global Pharmaceutical Market Forecast – www.imshealth.comRapporto di Previsione – Prometeia ottobre 2008 – www.prometeia.itComunicato stampa – ISAE 26 novembre 2008 – www.isae.itChanging Values among Western Publics from 1970 to 2006 – RF Inglehart – West European Politics 2008Inglehart-Welzel Cultural Map of the World – World Value Survey - http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/Consumer Trends in Three Different “Worlds” – Andy Hines – The Futurist 2008 – www.wfs.orgLa povertà relativa in Italia nel 2007 – ISTAT novembre 2008– www.istat.it2008 State of the Future – The Millennium Project – World Federation of UN Associations - http://www.millennium-project.orgLiving Planet Report 2008 – WWF, ZSL, GFN - http://www.panda.orgThe Hydrogen Economy – Jeremy Rifkin – FOET - http://www.foet.orgIntelligence.360 - Summer 2008 edition - www.imshealth.com


Non essendo che uomini

Non essendo che uomini, camminavamo tra gli alberiSpauriti, pronunciando sillabe sommessePer timore di svegliare le cornacchie,Per timore di entrareSenza rumore in un mondo di ali e di stridi.

Se fossimo bambini potremmo arrampicarci,Catturare nel sonno le cornacchie, senza spezzare un rametto,E, dopo l’agile ascesa,Cacciare la testa al di sopra dei ramiPer ammirare stupiti le immancabili stelle.

Dalla confusione, come al solito,E dallo stupore che l’uomo conosce,Dal caos verrebbe la beatitudine.

Questa, dunque, è leggiadria, dicevamo,Bambini che osservano con stupore le stelle,E’ lo scopo e la conclusione.

Non essendo che uomini, camminavamo tra gli alberi.

Dylan Thomas - 1932

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Speech Di Futurologia