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Economic
Take-off: 2010
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Trend of GDP growth %
2018 2010
7
7% growth
Bright
Future
Where should I invest? … fastest-
growing sector of the economy?
Economic
Take-off: 2010
8%
10%
6%
4%
2%
0% 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Trend of GDP growth %
2018 2010
7
Telecom Energy Property Mining
Bank Food Computers
7% growth
Bright
Future
Economy Telecom,
Electricity
PLDT ‘TEL’
Next Few Years
P50 in
1987
2900
?
Globe Tel
Next Few Years
300 in
1997 1740
?
MERALCO
Next Few Years
P20 in
2006
260
Aboitiz Equity
Ventures
P4 in
1995 51
?
Next Few Years
Next Few Years
Agri Nurture
34 in
2010
6
Green Corp
Next Few Years
.14 in
1998
0.02
“Business,
in general”
“Holding
Companies”
“Conglomerates”
Business,
in general
Ayala Corp
Next Few Years
P2 in
1988
603
GT Capital
Next Few Years
P455
in May
2012
856
JG Summit
Next Few Years
P3 in
2005
43
SM
Investments
Next Few Years
P200 in
2006
670
Next Few Years
P6 in
2005
.3
I C T V
Splash Corp.
9 in
2008
2 Next Few Years
Food...
Manila
Bulletin
From 10 to 90 in ten years.
= 25% per year growth
Profits
2.3bn
3bn
Sales in
2008 = 44bn
Sales in
2010 = 53bn
From 10 to 90 in ten years.
= 25% per year growth
Jollibee Foods 92
Jollibee
Foods
P10 in
2005
Next Few Years
178
2013
Pure Gold stores
Next Few Years
P12
2012
45
Universal Robina
Next Few Years
10 in
2009
127
Shipping:
2GO
Building, Cement...
Int’L Container
Terminal Svcs
Next Few Years
10 in
2005
95
PAL
CEB
DM Consunji
Next Few Years
1 in
2005
55
Holcim Cement
Next Few Years
3 in
2009
14
E E I
Next Few Years
1 in
2003 12
MRC
Allied
Houses, Offices
Ayala Land
Next Few Years
6 in
2009
30
Robinsons Land
Next Few Years
6 in
2009
23
Megaworld
Filinvest ?
Generate & Distribute Electricity
Aboitiz Equity Ventures
Next Few Years
5 in
2009
51
Aboitiz Power gen...
Next Few Years
5 in
2009
34
Semirara C.C.
Next Few Years
40 in
2009
250
Energy Devt
?
Next Few Years
Basic Energy
4 in
1994
0.2
F.O.O.D
Two Types of ERRORS
You invest … Price
You DON’T
invest…
Price
1
2
TOP Thirty stocks
May
2013
22% a year, for 5 years
2009 2011 2013
2400
6400
Long-Term
Trend…
11%
a
year
6400
600 1200
11% per year
1987 - 2013
17%
per year
2002-
2013
11% per year
1987 - 2013
17%
per year
2002-
2013
Assume
SLOW
growth?
Assume
HIGH
growth…
9,000
6,000
12,000
11% a year,
2013- 2023
17% a year,
2013- 2023
9,000
6,000
12,000
11% a year,
2013- 2023
17% a year,
2013- 2023
9,000
6,000
12,000
54
Top 30 companies in the PhiL Stock Exchange
1990 2000 2010 future
3,000
6,000
9,000
future
55
22% per year 2004 - 2013
Economic
Take-off: 2010
8%
10%
6%
4%
2%
0% 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Trend of GDP growth %
2018 2010
7
Telecom Energy Property Mining
Bank Food Computers
7% growth
Bright
Future
57
Strategy: Grab Opportunity.
AVOID Danger Zones
Invest
Challenge
Opportunity
Opportunity
Opportunity
Opportunity
Success Danger
Danger
58
The KNOWN minefields are bad enough. What about
“unmarked” minefields.
Opportunity
Opportunity
Opportunity
Opportunity
Success Danger
Danger
Danger
Danger
Danger
Danger
Danger
Danger
Invest
ASEAN EXCHANGE: • Singapore Exchange
• Bursa Malaysia
• Hanoi Stock Exchange
• Indonesia Stock Exchg
• PSE: Philippines
• Stock Exchange of Thailand
Sept 2012
Alexander Gilles
• Lecturer on “MARKET EDUCATION” for
First Metro Securities (stockbroker)
• Financial analyst. Educator.
To introduce:
DEC
31,
2013
June
2014
7,600
The PHIL stock market is at 18x earnings in November 2013.
It possibly may decline to 15x earnings before it aligns itself
with the valuations of other Asian stockmarkets. This implies
a possible decline to 5900 on the index.
DEC
31,
2013
June
2014
7,600
8,000
If PHIL stocks decline (via INDEX) to 6000 by
December 2013, it may be the LOW point that marks
the start of a rally in 2014.
DEC
31,
2013
June
2014
7,600
8,000
A low scenario would be 7,600 on the index by mid
2014. The high scenario would be 8,000 on index.
