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Future trends keynote for Koch on SustainAgility book - green tech, sustainability, commodities demand in future. Trends in oil, gas, coal, nuclear, wind and solar power, energy industry, steel mining, copper mining, precious metals, uranium. Futurist keynote by Patrick Dixon
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SustainAgility how green tech, smart innovation and agile leadership will help protect our world and
impact commodity markets
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
“80-95% carbon reduction” Fantasy or Future?
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ALL BIG TRENDS ARE RELATED!!
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Need to forecast energy / commodities in context of pan-global framework!!
Wild Cards: Risk Management
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Strategies often overtaken by
events !
World can change faster than you can hold a
board meeting
Oil >$100 a barrel accelerates innovation Even strong climate sceptics “go green”
WGP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
US GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
EU GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
>40% WDP by 2015! • IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
Vietnam GDP 1985-‐2011
$3.4 trillion !
$2.4 trillion !
Reserves
Complexity and scale create extra risks
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You need more than
one strategy or scenario
The future of energy is aboutEMOTION
Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people -‐ $2 trillion by 2040
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Commodities: 300 million move to cities in China!475 million to cities in Africa by 2030!
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11% wage inflaRon in China in 2013 -‐ similar in 2014
Nearshoring Boom
1 billion over 60s in 10 years
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Europe Dying !!
4 couples to !produce single!great-grand child!!
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1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time!
Future of Health will be shaped by emotion
1 week every 4
11% wage inflaRon in China in 2013 -‐ similar in 2014
Nearshoring Boom
Slow or no ageing is a reality
•Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales !
•No signs of getting old
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
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“EU emissions of CO2 equivalent to a carpet of
CO2 = 28cms thick each year over enRre land mass”
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Lessons from Shale Gas and where next
for global energy industry
Shale gas 33% US supplies
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200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years - US oil production > Saudi Arabia by 2017
Future of Gas ?
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These forecasts also likely to
be wrong
5 coal plants replace with gas = 9000 megawa@s wind !
57 closed in US in 2012-‐14 Cheaper coal means more coal will be burnt in Asia
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
Why China will dominate wind power industry “40% EU power = wind by 2050”
Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useFuture of Desert Power
Solar cell generation parity
Long term future for solar cells
• Future for next-generation Super-Grids
Enough salt caverns to power germany for a week
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•10% capacity used 4 days a year in Australia •Average $50 à peak $10,000 per MWhr
Managing Peak Power
Lessons from Germany Power Surplus
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• June 2013 electricity prices became negaRve -‐EU150 / MWhr !!
Future of Smart Power Regulation Utility Co controls consumption in homes / factories
�Russia pressure on Ukraine gas
�US national security worries �Energy = Economic Power
Tribal Energy - Russia - US
�Subsidies
�58% for fossil fuels �29% for nuclear
�Regulations
�Will impact energy markets for 50 years
Government Action will distort Energy Markets
Nuclear energy -‐ expect global growth….�Challenge to achieve carbon reduction AND cut nuclear �Wild card = dirty terror bomb or another meltdown
�30 million acres lost
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�EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food
25% of 2010 US grain fuel
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40% US corn burnt in vehicles Using 100% US corn would only drive 25% of vehicle miles
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Biofuel impact on food prices
Smart heating or cooling Save 30-50% energy - payback 4 years
�5% to 2% of US / EU energy �120 million EU street lamps �75% replace in 15 years at unit cost of $750 including labour
New Street Lamps save 3%
national energy
•70% new buildings in Sweden •45% new buildings in New Zealand •Payback 15 years but boosts electricity demand
Heat Pumps save up to 50% energy
30% + of lifetime energy use = build and demolishConstruction: build offices to last
Problem of Old Tires – gassificaPon
Recycling: save up to 70% energy Tyres to clean gas + steel in 5 minutes
>30% energy savings with green tech
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Tyres – 4.3% Streamlining – 12% 1.5 metres longer – 5% Hybrid engine – 30% Heat power air con ec – 5%
Shocks power – 4% Slow from 65 to 55mph -‐ 20%
SAVE ENERGY ON EVERY TRUCK !
30% EU trucks run empty
“We waste 25 million miles a year driving empty trucks”
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US major retailer
150kms by road can cost more than 10,000kms by sea
Fuel Cell shipments up 200%
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Burn in pure oxygen - Bury pure CO2 !
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Carbon capture - Carbon sequestration
�World’s largest derivative market ?
Future of Carbon Trading
Fusion of Water and Energy
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Power use = 4x Industry in UK
�1 billion have no safe drinking water
�2.3 billion at risk of drought
�4.5 billion at risk by 2050
� Tomato 13 litre � Slice of bread 50 litre � Egg 146 litre � Pint beer 170 litre � Burger 2,400 litres � Sheet of paper 13.6 litres � Cotton teashirt 4,000 litres � Leather shoes 9,600 litres � Pair of jeans 11,000 litres
150 litres a day of direct water use
4.6 tons water used a day / person in EU
�48,000 major dams world-wide
�400,000 square kilometres
�78,000 small dams in US alone – many need repair
Huge future for Dams
�1.5m gallons a day into $19m desalination plant à
�Pumped into sandstone acquifer under Chandler City, Arizona
�Replaces 75% of water used by factory
Intel saves water in Desert City
�55 million cubic metres water capacity a day from sea water �Expect energy use / cubic metre to fall by 50% in 20 years
Desalination: Next Generation
800 billion cubic metres of water traded virtually every year = 10 river Niles
�1 kg wheat – 1 cubic metre of water �40kg wheat = 40 ton water tanker �40 ton lorry of wheat = 2,500 lorries of water (100,000 tons) !
�If food tarifs lifted, Virtual Water Trade would double to 1,600 bn cubic metres a year
Trading Virtual Water
�For individuals
�For family
�For community
�For whole earth
Making Life Better Green tech will help our world in a profitable way
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
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