The Singularity s impact on Business leaders a Scenario

HOW WILL TECHNOLOGICALLY ENHANCED INDIVIDUALS COLLABORATE WITH “NORMAL” EMPLOYEES?

The Singularity’simpact on Businessleaders: a Scenario

By Barton Kunstler

Artist’s concept of an “enhanced” worker. It would be unwise for business leaders to assume that they will have complete control over technologically enhanced individuals when the Singularity occurs, warns author Kunstler.

ERIC HOOD / ISTOCKPHOTO

boss’s boss, and three people you’ve never seen before. Your boss keeps it short and sweet: “We’re giving you three new analysts. We want daily reports on their performance — not just the usual, but how they think.”

“Okay,” you say, “but....” One of the unidentifiables steps forward and fills you in. When she’s done, your jaw drops.

“Three new analysts” sounds harmless enough — maybe even a good thing. But here are their pro-files:

Sandra is a six-foot-tall woman with perfect musculature and an IQ somewhere in the 400s. Her wealthy, well-connected parents had access to the latest biotechnology. They wanted the best for their daugh-ter — or perhaps they coveted “the best daughter that money can buy” — and had her bioengineered to their exact specifications. She is a genius in math and technical skills and an extreme sports enthusiast. Like a grandmaster in a high-school chess club, Sandra is amused by the intellectual problems that Norms grapple with. She intends to eventu-ally become an influential player in international affairs.

Whenever Kevin tackles a tough problem, nanobots in his blood-stream pump oxygen into his brain. Other nanobots monitor his body’s vitamin, mineral, and enzyme con-tent, and produce whatever he needs for peak performance. Kevin glows with health and charisma, thanks to the nanocomputers he inhales once a year. The trillions of molecule-sized machines operate as parallel-process-ing computers that stimulate brain regions and meridian nerves, which operate sluggishly in most humans. This enhancement allows him to read other people’s emotional states and even translate their neuronal ac-tivity into readable thoughts. He has instant access to countless databases and can process dozens of complex variables almost instantaneously — a task that could keep a team of ana-lysts busy for days.

Darius is truly an experiment-in-progress. A web of carbon nanotubes has been threaded along his skin. These nanotubes have no specific function — they’re not geared toward increasing his intelligence or fine-

general population of “Norms” (those without technological en-hancements). The leaders of every organization and group will be com-pelled to come to terms with the ESIs’ advanced capabilities and the tensions, ambitions, and alliances at-tendant upon them.

a MiXeD-aBiLity WorkPLace scenario

You are hard at work as director of

a regional desk at a government se-curity agency when your boss calls: “Er, ah, come over to my office right away.” You hurry over, already frowning. Did one of your agents screw up? Did war break out along a border you were supposedly moni-toring?

When you arrive, you find the as-sociate director there, along with some military brass, your boss, your

T he “Human Singularity” refers to the radical fusion of the hu-man body with technology to

achieve levels of mental acuity and physical ability that eclipse anything humans have previously known. This would represent a singular event in human history: For the first time, people would be driven by laws other than those governing or-ganic life. A broad front of converg-ing core technologies may make in-dividuals with such abi l i t ies

commonplace by 2030 — if not sooner. Indeed, steps are already be-ing taken to achieve this goal.

One critical social function that will be affected by the Singularity is leadership, a chief defining factor of a society’s values, relations, and ob-jectives. Leaders will bear much of the burden of social evolution when the “Enhanced Singular Individuals” (ESIs) of the Singularity Era enter the

Carbon nanotubes (illustrated above) are incredibly strong and resilient, compared with organic matter. Such breakthroughs in nanotechnology would increase human mental and physical capabilities in unprecedented ways.

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THE FUTURIST March-April 2010 www.wfs.org 17

translation of a person’s neuronal ac-tivity into his or her actual thoughts.

The accelerating development of a few key technologies such as nano-technology, bioengineering, super-computing, materials development, and robotics is propelling the Singu-larity. Dark horse technologies that can contribute include wave dynam-ics, virtual reality, biofeedback, ho-lography, and cultivation of “higher” levels of consciousness.

Public pressure is also contributing to the Singularity’s development due to interest in improving the quality of human life, intelligence, and task-specific performance. Many people also believe that humanity’s survival depends on its ability to transcend current human limitations and oper-ate more effectively at a “meta- human” level in solving such prob-

Forces Driving an enhanceD Future

The true Human Singularity will only occur with the advent of ESIs whose entire physical, psychological, emotional, social, and mental devel-opment is defined by technological enhancements permanently installed in their bodies.

The Singularity will be shaped by a continuous stream of scientific ad-vances — for instance, the interface between biological and synthetic sys-tems, especially between humans and robotic devices. Advancements that have already been achieved to varying degrees include improved brain function, implants that offer “superhuman” sight or hearing, cloned mammals, species hybrids (created by grafting a trait from one species to a member of another), and

tuning his health, for instance. In-stead, they emit varying frequencies that activate his entire physiology in unpredictable ways. Darius is thus subject to tremendous flashes of bril-liance, with results that can barely be translated into coherent human terms. His incredible physicality combines with his freakish intellect to make him ideal as both an analyst and a covert agent. Over time, he ex-pects to rise through the ranks of the intelligence system. At least that’s what he thought at first and what he still tells his handlers. However, as he figures out which frequencies trigger what states of consciousness (information that only he is totally privy to), he realizes that the poten-tial power of his particular Singular-ity technology is far greater than his handlers suspect.

the singularity: Originally used to describe black holes and the singular, distinctive laws of physics that apply within them and nowhere else, “Singular-ity” now may also refer to the radical fusion of the human body with technology to achieve levels of mental acuity and physical ability that eclipse any-thing humans have previously known.

enhanced singular individuals or esis: The au-thor’s term for people enhanced by Singularity tech-nology.

norms: The author’s term for unenhanced or “nor-mal” people.

nanobots: Molecule- or atom-sized machines mea-sured in billionths (nano-) of meters, currently a fo-cus of the growing field of nanotechnology. Theoreti-cally, a huge number of nanobots can be introduced into the human body and programmed to trigger a wide range of physical and psychological effects.

carbon nanotubes: Very strong cylindrical filaments of carbon a few nanometers wide, with many poten-tial uses. Their integration with the human body, as

suggested in the author’s scenario, is purely specula-tive but probably achievable. Even if not placed under the outer skin, nanotubes may one day be capable of interacting intimately with physiological processes.

DarPa: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, a branch of the U.S. Department of Defense, created to pursue cutting-edge research. DARPA is already engaged in the development of Singularity-oriented technology.

super-senses: Dramatically heightened vision, hear-ing, taste, smell, and touch. Advances have been made with corneal modifications that lead to excep-tional night vision. Unlike with contact lenses or hearing aids, the goal of super-senses is not to see or hear at optimum human levels, but to go well be-yond them.

rogue enhancer: A likely denizen of the Singularity era, who operates in a shadow economy or criminal underworld and uses genetics, nanotech, and other technologies for his or her own gain.

— Barton Kunstler

The SingulariTy: a gloSSary of TermS

18 THE FUTURIST March-April 2010 www.wfs.org

ing human traits that have shaped leadership for millennia. Reimagin-ing leadership for the Singularity era should begin now, while the technol-ogy is still in its early stages, because we will face immense social and en-vironmental change in the coming years, and the old ways of leadership will no longer suffice.

social-enhancement mechanism. Communities demonstrate their val-ues, their assumptions about human nature, their aspirations, and even their relationship to the environment by the way they assign, assert, and acquiesce to leadership.

The Singularity will disrupt lead-ership’s traditional patterns by alter-

lems as war, pollution, climate change, poverty, and injustice.

ManageMent anD LeaDershiP in the singuLarity era

Leadership emerged within mam-mal and early human bands because it was an efficient survival and

It may be tempting to compare Enhanced Singular Individuals (ESIs) to comic book and movie superheroes, whose stories often contain keen social and psychological insights. ESIs, though, will not be superheroes, nor will they be robotic cyborgs or other popular stereotypes. They will be of many different types. Some ESIs will have one talent while others will possess abilities they can apply in different ways. No phone booths for them; their gifts will be integral to their everyday identities.

ESIs will be subject to unfamiliar, unpredictable, and complex psychological and social forces. As their numbers grow, they will transform twenty-first-century society and its notions of excellence, achievement, and leadership. In short, the Singularity will change what it means to be not only human but also a leader among humans.

ESIs will possess a range of abilities (in varying combinations) that can be grouped under three broad categories: mental, perceptual, and physiological.

MentaL

• Extraordinary intelligence, memory, and learning capacity.

• Ability to read others’ thoughts.• Remote control over technology via mind energy or

“thought waves.”• Mind enters digital networks as an active agent.• Mind-to-mind interfaces, mind sharing, and group

minds.• Exploration of “higher” states of consciousness and

“psychic” powers.• Ability to interfere or intervene with others’ neural

processes and to control one’s own.• New areas of learning and exploration — hidden

worlds revealed.

• Ability to generate mental models of higher orders of complexity.

PercePtuaL

• Hyper-enhanced “super senses.”• Extrasensory “sixth, seventh, and eighth senses”

such as sensitivity to electromagnetic fields, ability to perceive imprints of past events in one’s environment, and remote sensing.

• Sharing the sensory experiences of others in real time.

• Extreme proprioception (sensory awareness of internal bodily activities), resulting in ability to control and improve physical and mental operations.

PhysioLogicaL

• Every bodily system more efficient and powerful; advances in longevity.

• New levels of mind/body integration.• Increased speed, strength, agility, balance, flexibility,

coordination, and elasticity.• Robotic implants of organs, bones, muscles,

ligaments, etc.• Cross-species genetic implants for strength and new

mental perspectives.• New limbs: artificial, regrown, genetically

engineered, nano- enhanced.• Increased speed at which signals travel along and

between nerve cells.• Greater ability to withstand cold, pain, and extreme

deprivations.• Regulation of key bodily functions: chemical,

temperature, heart rate, immune system. — Barton Kunstler

WhaT iT Will mean To Be “human”


out-intuit or out-feel them”).Many ESIs and Norms will be

newly disenfranchised to some ex-tent. The question is, will they work toward common causes and goals or compete with one another? Smart leaders on both sides of the enhanced divide will encourage collaborative initiatives. There will be a growing demand for consultants and trainers who can assist bewildered leaders in understanding such issues as “What do Norms really want?” and “Run-ning a Family Business with Your ESI Sibling.”

the Post-singuLarity WorkForce scenario continues

As you reflect on your three new

ESIs may rely too heavily on their enhanced abilities when making de-cisions without understanding their own unenhanced traits. The dispari-ties between their Singularity level and “normal” abilities may cause some ESIs to experience intense anxi-ety. Many ESI leaders may prove un-reliable and only able to process nar-row decision paths. Relationships based on awe at outsized talents may be marked by intimidation or uneasy emotional ties, and successful ESI leaders will, at least at first, produce a sense of awe. Norm leaders in this era may be suspicious, angry, and confused. The most successful Norm leaders, however, will cultivate their own gifts and leverage them for tac-tical advantage (for instance, “If you can’t out-calculate them, you must

The Singularity world will be char-acterized by a global, networked, technocratic civilization with a popu-lation of 8 to 12 billion people. Nation-states will be weakened in fa-vor of regional alignments, global or-ganizations, and large, powerful net-works devoted to specific causes or interests. ESIs will be living side-by-side with Norms. Leaders’ tasks will be to maximize ESI potential, resolve conflicts among ESIs as well as be-tween ESIs and Norms, establish new leadership approaches for unique situations arising from ESI–Norm disparities, and establish a new basis for social cohesion. ESIs who become leaders will likely be confident, literally “plugged-in” technologically, and either com-pletely or erratically rational.

a Quick guide To The SingulariTythe singuLarity — What is it?

The Singularity “is a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so fast and far-reaching that human existence on this planet will be irreversibly altered. People will combine our brain power — the knowledge, skills, and personality quirks that make us human — with our computer power in order to think, reason, communicate, and create in ways we can scarcely even contemplate to-day,” according to Ray Kurzweil, writing in the March-April 2006 issue of THE FUTURIST. In his various novels, Hugo Award winning science -fiction writer Vernor Vinge has portrayed the Singularity as a sudden explosion in human intelligence.

the technoLogies BehinD the singuLarity

1. genetics. Our ability to manipulate the human genome will allow us to turn the expression of cer-tain genetic traits on or off, resulting in longer life spans and fewer instances of congenital illness, ac-cording to biotech researchers such as Gregory Stock and Ian Wilmut. Some future watchers believe we may use genetic science to improve our brains and greatly enhance our physical performance as well.

Aubrey de Grey, author of Ending Aging (St. Martin’s, 2007), has stated that genetic science could expand the human life span well beyond 150 years.

2. nanotechnoLogy. This refers to the manipula-tion of objects less than one-billionth of a meter in size, literally designing medicines and other prod-ucts on the molecular level. Nanotechnology is con-fined mostly to materials science, but some doctors are finding medical applications. A research team from the University of Texas was able to send gold nanoparticles directly into tumors (in mice) and then irradiate the particles, releasing heat. This improved the mice’s response to radiation therapy. Robert Frei-tas, author of the Nanomedicine series, has stated that future nano-robotic therapies could make us stron-ger, smarter, and healthier than we are today by sev-eral orders of magnitude.

3. artiFiciaL inteLLigence. Computer intelli-gence will surpass all biological (regular human) in-telligence by the year 2030, according to Kurzweil. Long before then, people will incorporate computers into their biological functioning and thinking through cybernetic implants and nano devices.

— Patrick Tucker


bring coherence to complex societies, and so forth. Still, those abilities may not produce the expected results with these new ESIs. The methods and tools of leadership must un-dergo serious renovation.

As the first weeks pass, you notice a new dynamic in your department. Your staff of 35 Norms has sensed something different about the three new colleagues, although you are not allowed to even hint to your staff the truth about their new co-workers.

This is your first leadership task pertaining to the Norm–ESI situation: Identify the cause and nature of the concerns slowly building up in the office. The strong relationships

ception of leadership.At the same time, you figure that

many traditional leadership para-digms will still be applicable and di-rectly relevant for several reasons. Radical social change does not equate to overturning the most fun-damental psychological and organi-zational responses to personal and group relations. The new ESIs may be extraordinary people, but they are people nonetheless. Just like every-one else, they should respond to your fair distribution of assignments and rewards, and to the open and personable nature that has served you so well in political situations. Someone has to have the skills to

staff members, you realize that ev-eryone must now discard the base-line assumption that we will always exert control or leadership over tech-nology. In this case, “technology” re-fers to a whole other type of human. For the first time in human history, the locus of leadership has shifted from the strictly human to beings with greater mental capacity than our own. Deeply engrained assump-tions about power and leadership will begin to disappear because a cultural concept loses strength as its experiential underpinnings erode. Entirely new types of interpersonal and group dynamics will arise that transform the requirements and per-

What form will leadership take in the Singularity era? And what will Enhanced Singular Individuals be capable of accomplishing?

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less, the Norms do find themselves unconsciously deferring to the ESIs. You realize that each step forward generates more complexity, more di-lemmas, new tensions. You wonder what the limits are to your ability to adjust. You also wonder what is go-ing on in the minds of the three ESIs, and what will happen when more ESIs come into your office or replace Norm staff, and how much longer the details of the ESIs’ enhancements can be kept secret from their co-workers.

In the year since Sandra, Kevin, and Darius arrived, you’ve heard from others suddenly confronted with managing, working for or with, or interacting with ESIs. You realize that the increasing irrelevance of Norm staff in the face of high- performing ESIs affects every level of society. Your staff is already trying to cope with what they perceive as their own growing obsolescence, and you’re even having doubts about your own relevance. ESIs could eas-ily become a separate class and quickly rise to leadership positions; they will also likely develop new skills as their self-awareness and ex-perience increase. New ESI agendas will emerge beyond the scope of the scientists, handlers, and managers who create and guide them, further undermining traditional hierarchies and managerial norms. Rogue en-hancers will also create new types of ESIs, for better or worse; certainly a criminal underworld specializing in Singularity technology will arise.

As a leader, you recognize these emerging challenges to your own abilities. Perhaps the time will come when you are no longer deemed ad-equate. Then you’ll either retire or perhaps ask to be enhanced. ❑

About the AuthorBarton Kunstler is an account executive for IST Energy and the educational director of Chess Corps in Brookline, Massachusetts, which applies brain-based learning methods to teach-

ing and coaching chess. He is the author of The Hothouse Effect (AMACOM, 2003) and writes for The Huffington Post. E-mail [email protected].

certainly justifies a successful career. But one of your analysts pushes a bit more. “Look,” she argues, “if there are more where they came from, the rest of us are going to face increas-ingly limited options.” You say something encouraging, but you both know — and soon the whole of-fice knows — that there is no easy resolution to such concerns.

Another six months passes, and you’ve adapted your leadership style to address these tensions. You can no longer be the wiser, more experi-enced natural leader that you’ve been to the rest of your staff because the ESIs derive their own — possibly superior — understanding via their own mysterious ways. The ESIs do, however, need help navigating a professional world from which they’ve been sheltered for most of their lives, so you adopt a more avuncular role that gradually makes you more attuned to the personal concerns of the rest of your staff. You were always good at the political, team-building aspects of the job, but now that you’ve had to shift the value that you provide as a leader to accommodate the ESIs, you find the whole office appreciates the more re-lational “you.”

The atmosphere not only thaws from the earlier tension but becomes looser. People discuss their work more animatedly with one another, meetings are more challenging, and everyone seems to enjoy the give-and-take. Once, during a meeting, Darius said, “It’s not all about what we know or how fast we process. We are not computers, after all; we’re people, and insight is qualitative.”

Likewise, Sandy conceded, “There is a richness within each person’s per-spective that I hadn’t expected. Their experience and emotional lives, the way they solve problems — even if they can be frustratingly slow — often provides us with fascinating mate-rial.”

It is not lost on you that the three ESIs on your team are unselfcon-sciously condescending toward the Norms, like Cro-Magnons who are really delighted to find that Nean-derthals also can think. The ESIs nat-urally assume that they are superior to the Norms — an assumption that the Norms do not share. Nonethe-

you’ve established enable you to do some casual intelligence gathering among your people, from which you discover that the staff is confused and daunted by the ESIs and the thorough and unerring analyses that emerge so rapidly and with so little prior experience.

You decide to talk things over with the ESIs themselves — at least they know they’re different. But the con-versations don’t lead to much. All three say they are perfectly happy before you even have a chance to ask.

So what makes these three ESIs tick? How do you motivate them? Do they even need motivation? And motivate them for what? What’s your job anyway? To make sure they don’t shine too bright and upset the political and personal balance in the department? To motivate them to op-erate at their maximum level of per-formance, if you can even figure out what that is? And how do you man-age the threat that the ESIs’ superior skills pose to Norms’ careers — in-cluding your own? You realize that throughout society there’ll be a need to reduce ESI–Norm tensions that will arise with the inevitable shifts in status and wealth as members of the two groups compete.

You have other questions that make you think the whole thing may end up driving you crazy. Are these guys patented? Do they need to be maintained or upgraded? How long before they become obsolete? Then what happens to them? If you have to fire one of them, where do they go?

Over the next six months, your un-ease intensifies. Several of the Norms in the office have become friendly with the three ESIs, occasioning ten-sions between those Norms and other staff. And even though you have not let anything slip about the ESIs’ identities, your people are savvy and they’ve surmised the gen-eral truth. A few have approached you and asked outright if their pros-pects for advancement have dimin-ished as a result of the extraordinary performance of the three new hires. You tell them, truthfully, that they are not in direct competition, that there are many tracks for advance-ment, and that their own expertise


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