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PV Markets worldwide - an overviewEdwin Koot - CEO Solarplaza
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“Trends in the global PV market” Edwin Koot
CEO SolarPlaza
SolarPlaza
© Laxtron SolarPlaza PV Business Tour China; April 2006. SolarPlaza support project development in Spain
Meeting with founder Dr. Zhengrong Shi, founder Suntech Power, 10 billion dollar PV company PV Trade mission to California in 2007 SolarPlaza PV Business Tour Taiwan; Jan 2008.
The Global PV market
Crisis, what crisis?
2009: +11% growth 2010: +69% growth
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[MWp/year] WORLD PV MARKET
NEWLY INSTALLED PV POWER
CAGR: 50%
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Italy
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UK
The leading PV markets in 2009
53% global market share; 10 MW/day…
Germany: the engine of industry…
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Buerstad; 50.000 m2, Photo by Ralph Orlowski/2005 Getty Images, Inc.
10 MW Sunpower project in Bavaria 0
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© Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: Bundesnetzagentur plus Solarplaza model
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Most important applications
Foto: ©Enfinity; McBride, Ieper, Belgium © Frankensolar
© Solarfabrik
The PV industry
• 150 cell manufacturers • >400 module
producers • 85% c-Si • Oversupply…
2002: 3 MW 2009: 600 MW 2 Mrd $
2002: 10 MW 2009: 1000 MW 2,6 Mrd $
2004: 10 MW 2009: 600 MW 2 Mrd $
2002: 10 MW 2010: 1200 MW 11.5 Mrd $
Declining module prices
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Q2-‐08 Q3-‐08 Q4-‐08 Q1-‐09 Q2-‐09 Q3-‐09 Q4-‐09 Q1-‐10 Q2-‐10 Q3-‐10
[$/Wp]
Solarfun (NASDAQ)
Forecast analyst
World market 2010-2013
• German market is essential!
• Emerging: Italy, USA, China, India, France, Belgium
• New markets: Australia, Canada, Bulgaria, Israel, UK, Turkey…
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German PV market
PV market USA
Global PV market
China
© SolarPlaza April 2010; various data sources
Belgian PV market
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[MWp/year]
© Solarplaza, April 2009; Data sources: ODE,
Start of incentives
3 years to develop a market…
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[MWp] Italy
Spain
Germany
Belgium
© Solarplaza May 2009; Data sources: BSW, GSE, ASIF and Solarplaza data model
Comparison: Start at the same time
Subsidy dependence gone within 10 years
Long term market drivers
• Growing electricity demand
• Shortage of oil [IEA] • Climate change policy • Independence & security • Technology development → +40% growth feasible
800 MWp = 50.000 e-cars
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© Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: analyses by Solarplaza based on various sources
PV market growth scenarios
Wind energy & EPIA: 25%/year €150 billion
Past 10 years: 50%/year €500 billion
Conclusions
• 2010-2015: – UK PV market will start to grow – Declining module prices – Industry consolidation
• 2015-2020: – Growing subsidy independence – New business models – Strong global growth
“Grid-parity” Example: Spain
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“Grid parity”
Grid-parity, and then…?
• New business models
• New energy companies?
• Capital is crucial 0,00
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