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Venture*21 EssentialsJOE PALZKILL
Session Goals
• Module Overview• Key Functions
• Forecast Methods• Default Forecasts• Events• SKU Allocations: Default Size
Templates• Forecast Volatility Exception
Reporting
• Additional Features• Review of Screens• Administration
Overview of Venture*21• Highly automated weekly demand forecasting – utilizing
statistical engine• Features allow the user to remain in control
Overview of Venture*21• Multiple forecasting methods• Forecast at all levels of the merchandise hierarchy• Top-down bottom-up forecast alignment • New item forecasting• Manage demand associated with promotions (a.k.a. Events)• Calculates lost sales and considers in future forecasts• Exception management• Integrated with Master Scheduling
KEY FUNCTIONS:Forecast Methods
Forecast Methods: Expert• Statistical Forecasting Method• “Expertly” selects one of the following:
• Exponential Smoothing • 12 Models
• Curve Fitting• Croston’s Intermittent Demand• Box-Jenkins, Including Seasonal Models• ARIMA Models
Forecast Methods: Expert• Best when used on high volume Products or relatively stable
Products• Commonly used on Merchandise Hierarchy Levels• Can be Linked to Products or Hierarchy averages• Users can adjust the Forecast using an Index
Forecast Methods: 1YS• Exponential Smoothing (Winters method)• Use when the most recent 52-week period is most relevant• Will be used if Expert is selected and > 55 weeks of History and < 104
weeks of History• Ability to Link to comparable Products or Hierarchy Levels• Users can adjust the Forecast using an Index
Forecast Methods: SALY• Index last year’s Actuals to get this year’s Forecast for a
Product• Can be Linked to other Products or Hierarchy Levels• Users can adjust the Forecast using an Index
Forecast Methods: F21• Only available if Forecast*21 and Venture*21 modules installed• Index to the Forecast*21 Forecast developed for the same
Product in the same Division• Can be Linked to other Products or Merchandise Hierarchy
Levels• Users can adjust the Forecast using an Index
Forecast Methods: Flat• Set a flat Forecast amount per week• Can calculate an average Forecast based on last n weeks of historical
using Olympic Averaging• While it is calculated as a Flat value, the weekly amount can vary if you
apply the top-down Hierarchy adjustment• Best for slow movers or items with short reorder lead time
Forecast Methods: Multiple• Assign a Base Forecast Method to the Product• Override the Method for one or more time periods• Best for Products with high-volume peak season and significant
shift to low volume in other periods
Forecast Methods• Forecasts can be calculated at multiple levels:
• Company• Category• Subcategory• Product
• Higher level Forecasts can then be imposed on lower levels to take advantage of Forecast accuracy at higher levels
User-Defined Hierarchy
KEY FUNCTIONS:Default Forecast Methods
Default Forecast Methods• Can be any Method• New Products apply the
assigned Default Method• Can apply an Index• Can link to specific Merchandise
Hierarchy Level or Product
Default Forecast Methods• Default Methods can be set on
any level of the Hierarchy• Identified by the blue dot• Sets the Default Forecast
Method for assigned Products below that Level
Default Forecast Methods
• Default Method applied shows from which Level the Method is inherited
• To adjust Method on the Product, uncheck the Default Method Applied box
• New Products are set to Default Method
KEY FUNCTIONS:Events
Events• Events are occurrences such as a sale or promotion that affects
demand in a given week or weeks for one or more Products• Events are seen on the Forecast Graph widget for those nodes
or Products in the Event• Event demand impact is added into the final forecasts
Events: Graph
Events: Effect
Events• Actual Effect is calculated using Statistical Methods• Planned Effect can be set by looking at performance of Other
Events• Impact Types
• Additive – uses static unit and revenue values• Multiplicative – uses indexed units and revenue values
• Planned Effect can only be applied to a single event based on the event priority
• Planned Events can be imported from Excel spreadsheet
KEY FUNCTIONS:SKU Allocations: Default Size Templates
SKU Allocations• Extend forecast from Product level to color and/or size level
SKU Allocations: Size Templates• Default size allocations can be applied from assigned template
SKU Allocations: Size Templates• Assign at the Merchandise Hierarchy and/or Vendor level
KEY FUNCTIONS:Forecast Volatility
Forecast Volatility• Measures the change in forecast from prior week to current
week for the future 6-week time period
• Purpose is to provide the user with forward-looking exception reporting of significant changes in Product level forecast that could create a negative impact on inventory service levels
Forecast Volatility• Available in the DRS tab within Venture*21
Forecast Volatility• User can navigate to individual Product to review and adjust Forecast
OTHER FEATURES
Other Features• Supports a User-Defined Hierarchy
• Category, Subcategory• Family, Department, Class
• Accommodates Products with different Beginning and Ending Dates
• Input weekly Revenue Plan and monitor Forecast versus the Revenue Plan
• View and manage Forecasts in Units or Revenue
Other Features• View Product Image on screen• Calculate historical Lost Sales and adjust future period
forecasts• Calculates Forecast Variance as well as Forecast Volatility• View Year-Over-Year Forecasts and Forecast Trends• Common Database with other SPI Buyer Direct modules
REVIEW OF SCREENS
SPI Buyer Direct Dashboard
• Launch Venture*21 from the Dashboard
Forecast Graph Window
Componentized - Built with Widgets
Forecast Graph
• Displays Historical Actuals• Shows future Forecasts from Reforecast process• Shows Forecasts based on selected Forecast Method
Forecast Graph: Legend
• Use the Legend button to display definitions of each line on Graph
• Hover over Week Number to see Date Range
Forecast Graph: Options
• The Options button allows the user to select which data to display
• Specify how many weeks of history and which forecasts to show on the window
Forecast Graph: Fitted History
• Fitted History (gold line) shows how well the Expert Method correlates to the history
Forecast Graph: Year Over Year
• Shows 52 weeks at a time• Each year is graphed in a different color• Vertical red line indicates the current week
Forecast Graph: Trend Line
• Trend Line options• Linear• Quadratic• Exponential
History: Weekly View
• History is displayed in units or revenue• Current week is the first week• Ability to toggle between fiscal weeks and dates
History: Summary
• History is summarized by month or quarter• Buckets are configurable in Fiscal Calendar• Green column is the current period
Product Info
• Displays Product Information for the User
• Shows Dates Offered and SKU Pricing
SKU Allocations
• SKU Allocations allows the user to see and manage color/size allocations from the product to the SKUs
• The current allocation is displayed• User can create new allocations for future weeks
Bring The Widgets Together
ADMINISTRATION
Ventures
• Define how Ventures behave• Scale Method
• Top down• Rollup• Hybrid
• Apply Revenue Plan
Merchandise Hierarchy Levels
• Supports a user-defined hierarchy• Category, Subcategory• Family, Department, Class
• Number of Levels defined when implemented• Names can be changed
Merchandise Hierarchy
• Add Additional “Nodes”• New Category• New Subcategory
• Maintain Hierarchy Descriptions
Product Images• Images assigned to products
are displayed in Venture*21• Managed From:
• Venture*21 – Product Images• Administration – Product/SKU
Images• Administration – Bulk Load
Images• Uploaded from Excel
Spreadsheet
Product Images
Product Images: Administration
Product Images: Bulk Upload
Reforecast Schedule
• Schedule Reforecasts• Set Parameters for Reforecast• Determine which Ventures to include
Recap• Module Overview• Key Functions
• Forecast Methods• Default Forecasts• Events• SKU Allocation – Default Templates• Forecast Volatility (exception reporting)
• Additional Features• Review of Screens• Administration
Questions
